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Massive Nor'easter Disco 10/21-25


Damage In Tolland

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These stalling nor'easter setups are the classic candidates for city-crippling flooding here. The last time we got a good one of these the national guard had to be called in to help drain the square. Hopefully on the heels of this last rain event this storm will be able to get the job done.

We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding.

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We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding.

Yeah, I believe we have a multi-million dollar flood mitigation plan being developed here, some of the ideas I saw were pretty extreme. When they actually dredged some of the north river's streams around town they pulled up some ridiculous stuff... Refrigerators, washing machines, mattresses, and ovens to name a few. :lol:

Rates and timing play a part, but usually anything over 4" has a good shot at causing noteworthy flooding, and 6+" is pretty much a guarantee for boating through downtown.

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For Ginxy, U wind anomalies of the top 15 analogs based on the 120 hour GFS forecast (12z Wed). You really have to crank the negative U wind anomalies if you want the truly heavy precip events in this kind of set up.

 

FWIW, 6 of the 15 analogs were pretty substantial rain events.

 

post-44-0-62301900-1413575484_thumb.png

 

post-44-0-39223300-1413575494_thumb.png

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We have the same problem here in an area called Weymouth landing. It's prone to tidal fluctuations and when heavy rain is combined with a high tide, it backs up a river and brook flowing underneath the square. They just rebuilt the drainage last year because stores were moving out from the flooding.

I remember flooding from Clark&Tabor (now Quirk) - Marion Shoes up to Olindy's (now DD's). St. Francis had to be under 10' of water. The Army Corp of Engineers installed a 15' pipe from Pond Meadows to Fore River. Little if any flooding since. Way-back in the 60's.

Oh my I'm getting old!

Massive? really?

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I remember flooding from Clark&Tabor (now Quirk) - Marion Shoes up to Olindy's (now DD's). St. Francis had to be under 10' of water. The Army Corp of Engineers installed a 15' pipe from Pond Meadows to Fore River. Little if any flooding since. Way-back in the 60's.

Oh my I'm getting old!

Massive? really?

September 2012 had like 2-3' of water.

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You start wondering if we'll see some 10-15 inch amounts in places that stay under the firehose

 

Do you really see THAT MUCH rain falling somewhere? Obviously we don't know where that heaviest fetch will set up, but is this looking like that big of a deal for someplace? Just asking, because I was under the impression that the heaviest areas might see 4 or 5 inches at most(which is quite a bit anyway). But 10-15 inches sounds just Over the Top?? But maybe my thinking is way off??

Over the weekend, the picture should start to beccome more clear where the heavier amounts might set up.

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Do you really see THAT MUCH rain falling somewhere? Obviously we don't know where that heaviest fetch will set up, but is this looking like that big of a deal for someplace? Just asking, because I was under the impression that the heaviest areas might see 4 or 5 inches at most(which is quite a bit anyway). But 10-15 inches sounds just Over the Top?? But maybe my thinking is way off??

Over the weekend, the picture should start to beccome more clear where the heavier amounts might set up.

Don't worry we all are thinking the same thing as you.

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For Ginxy, U wind anomalies of the top 15 analogs based on the 120 hour GFS forecast (12z Wed). You really have to crank the negative U wind anomalies if you want the truly heavy precip events in this kind of set up.

FWIW, 6 of the 15 analogs were pretty substantial rain events.

UWND300anommeangfs212F120.png

UWND850anommeangfs212F120.png

nice, you have a link for this ?
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Euro ensembles are pretty wet from srn ME through ern MA.

 

I think Jeff mentioned earlier the addage of not wanting to be in the bull's eye this far out.  So, I guess I can take comfort with that.

 

Chris also said the only concern about qpf should kick in 6 weeks from now.  He makes a good point.

 

51.5/51

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