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October 2014 Obs and Disco


Bob Chill

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Nice cool shot imminent this weekend and early next week. Model war down the line. Euro ens set on modest ridging returning with lowest heights out West. Gefs wants to keep the trough axis centered in the middle and eastern conus with much cooler temps compared to the euro.

Will be interesting to see who wins. Both have been set in their ideas for 2-3 days.

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Heh, there's only one. 2002. The next lowest Oct reading was -3.7 in 1969.

 

Pretty extreme blocking event in 02:

 

post-2035-0-43188600-1412170827_thumb.gi

 

 

Here's Nov-Feb

 

post-2035-0-09075100-1412171022_thumb.gi

 

 

Last last spike negative was around the 22nd of Jan and then it broke for Feb. But it didn't matter because the PD storm crushed us. 

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I don't know that to be correct.

 

In a developing nino enso it's probably a good thing because the whole lw pattern setting up looks pretty nino'ish. It could be the atmosphere showing it's hand early rather than some random event. Of course it could be just a tease followed by weenie suicides in a couple months. I see it as a net positive but it's only October 1st so scoping and hoping will go on for many weeks. 

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Why? Always good to see early blocking.

I don't care about blocking.  I'm not willing to trade the nicest month of the year so we can "predict" the "possibility" of a good winter 3 to 4 months from now.

 

I want it to be sunny, dry most of the time, and mild.  It's the greatest month.

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I don't care about blocking. I'm not willing to trade the nicest month of the year so we can "predict" the "possibility" of a good winter 3 to 4 months from now.

I want it to be sunny, dry most of the time, and mild. It's the greatest month.

Coming from the guy who prefers one-hundred 1" snows to five 20" snows? The guy who roots against severe Wx? ;)

Who wants warm, stagnant, boring weather? We've had enough of that crap..I'd be glad to see it end.

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Coming from the guy who prefers one-hundred 1" snows to five 20" snows? The guy who roots against severe Wx? ;)

Who wants warm, stagnant, boring weather? We've had enough of that crap..I'd be glad to see it end.

Good for most in the freeze contest, i'll take the former. Don't forget what happened in October 2011, cold air was dumped off and we warmed up in DJF.

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Saturday looks tricky with temps and rainfall. Models really are not spitting out that much, but it's possible we could get something noteworthy. In terms of speed, GFS (as usual) is the fastest with the front and keeping us around 60 all day. NAM/UKMET/ECMWF are slower. Saturday could be Mostly to Partly Cloudy and windy with highs in the Low to Mid 60s or it could be Mostly Cloudy with chances of Rain/Thunder and temps around 70. Saturday Night-Monday Morning will be a real taste of fall

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Saw a legit whirlwind today on the highway. It started with a few leaves, but quickly became 2-3 stories tall. It then crossed the median, kicking up grass and trash. It was strong enough to actually leave an indentation in the grass too.

 

I had no idea they could get that big. It was neat to see everyone looking at it and rolling their windows up lol.

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Every region has pros and cons. I'm sure you do quite well in the winter/snowstorms, especially with temps.

 

As a region we do better w/ temps (and ratio and p-type) due to our interior location and modest elevation.  Moisture...nasomuch. 

 

My problem is more imby than a region problem.  It's always drier in the town of Stephens City... for some reason.  

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52 or 53".  I'd have to dig up the thread from last winter to be exact.  I do know that I got about 12" less than Winchester (6 miles N), and similarly less than Front Royal (10 miles SE).  

Man, that's one sharp cutoff. That sounds like my area and low temps. Everywhere else, and I mean everywhere, is about 2F lower than my area. And it's not my station, as I have two sensors that have the same readings.

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