Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

WxChallenge 2014-2015


Jurg

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

They did manage 0.06" last hour but I'm holding on for dear life with precip now

Yeah, that definitely helps the higher end camp. The only saving grace is when the storm pulls away, it holds the banding on the back side together and drags it right through KCAR. That can happen because they are right in the thick of the best banding right now, but that area will be losing the best UL support in the next hour or two based upon Mesoanalysis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, that definitely helps the higher end camp. The only saving grace is when the storm pulls away, it holds the banding on the back side together and drags it right through KCAR. That can happen because they are right in the thick of the best banding right now, but that area will be losing the best UL support in the next hour or two based upon Mesoanalysis

Only 0.02" the next hour. Radar presentation looks a lot worse than it did last hour too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only 0.02" the next hour. Radar presentation looks a lot worse than it did last hour too

 

Yeah, this is pretty much all she wrote for this system. Final tally looks to be near 0.80. That's a bummer for everyone that went higher with the precip. I think the USL 22z score a coup here so far. Pretty much everything right on target except the high. I need the low and the winds now to save me. I don't think 1st place is an option anymore, but finishing top 10 would be nice

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, this is pretty much all she wrote for this system. Final tally looks to be near 0.80. That's a bummer for everyone that went higher with the precip. I think the USL 22z score a coup here so far. Pretty much everything right on target except the high. I need the low and the winds now to save me. I don't think 1st place is an option anymore, but finishing top 10 would be nice

Its going to be cutting it very close. The low and winds will be crucial for me but I'm feeling oddly good
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not sure what happened with the verification because this is what I thought it would be. Instead they have 36/28/24/0.75 as the final. Doesn't make any sense to me.

 

That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect.

I'm sure that happened before too and then they eventually changed it. Pretty strange they go off climo all forecast period and neglect it now. Just want some consistency. Oh well, I still had a damn good score for the city, so I'll just walk. Thanks
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's because they only took only the wind verification of the climo report. Somebody will need to bug them that both the temp and precip verification is incorrect. 

 

Yeah, I'm definitely going to be sending an email. The verification is obviously incorrect for some reason. :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is there a website that you can go to, to see a consensus weather forecast: that is, an average of accuweather, the weather channel, weather bug, etc?

No I don't think so......maybe someone could code a program to do it though.....not that I would want it.

 

Try this: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml  Type in the four letter K indentifier on the right side (in lower case).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spread tomorrow should be huge, me think...

I could literally see the high being between the upper 40's and upper 60's at 6z, depending on when exactly the front gets there. The NAM appears a bit too slow to get the front through IMO, although the HRRR and RAP are in pretty good agreement on 6-7z, which would mean a warm high. One concern is if I remember right from Norman last year, cold front plunging in from the north in the southern Plains tend to be a bit faster than modelled...looking at the last several RAP and HRRR runs, they've inched faster with the front a little bit each run, although they're still safely north of ABI at 6z on the 21z runs, so I'm not sure it can trend fast enough to get in there by 6z...we'll see, there will be a huge spread I agree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I could literally see the high being between the upper 40's and upper 60's at 6z, depending on when exactly the front gets there. The NAM appears a bit too slow to get the front through IMO, although the HRRR and RAP are in pretty good agreement on 6-7z, which would mean a warm high. One concern is if I remember right from Norman last year, cold front plunging in from the north in the southern Plains tend to be a bit faster than modelled...looking at the last several RAP and HRRR runs, they've inched faster with the front a little bit each run, although they're still safely north of ABI at 6z on the 21z runs, so I'm not sure it can trend fast enough to get in there by 6z...we'll see, there will be a huge spread I agree.

ABI is pretty far south compared to central Oklahoma. I think the front will be slowing its rate of speed soon. Also this is a dry fropa not one with a squall line like last years in OKC. Also it has sped up during the day because the front has been strengthening all afternoon with diabatic heating in front of it and cloudy skies with a cold pool behind it. That temp gradient has only gotten stronger, but with the sun going down that temperature gradient will be slowly decreasing from it's peak because diabatic heating effects will go away. So the speed should trend down from here on in I think.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...