CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Models actually looked impressive for NYC and SW CT near dawn Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Could be a big day Let's close out svr season with a bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Well the NAM is certainly interesting for tomorrow midday and Wednesday morning. Been quite interesting for several runs mow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Wow the 6z NAM brings 1500 SBcape in at 9z Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Tomorrow aftn didn't really seem nearly as good as Wed morning down in srn and SW CT. At least on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Meanwhile, awesome Oct morning out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 low of 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The caveat is can we get higher Dews inland. If so .. Wed morn could be wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Look at the STP...that is RIDICULOUS [/url] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah well pump the brakes on the NAM a tad, because it's the NAM. But the SREFs target cstl southern SNE right into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah well pump the brakes on the NAM a tad, because it's the NAM. But the SREFs target cstl southern SNE right into SE MA. While the GFS certainly doesn't have the Cape the NAM does it looks like it has 500 cape...I would think 750-1000 would be solid enough to generate a few watchable cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The NAM also has a much larger warm sector than at least the GFS as it has 60's dews well into SNE. There does also exist timing differences. Have to see if that actually occurs but I would like RI and into SE MA right now...better likelihood of warm sectoring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah well pump the brakes on the NAM a tad, because it's the NAM. But the SREFs target cstl southern SNE right into SE MA. Sunrise surprise? Not a bad number for a two day prog on the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Climo says not so fast... But September and October can be interesting with relatively warm water to the south of SNE. 10/3/79 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Sunrise surprise? SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif Not a bad number for a two day prog on the SREF. Thanks for posting that!!! On my phone and would have been a pain to do that. That is pretty nuts to see at this timeframe. Do you know what it has for MLcape probs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Climo says not so fast... But September and October can be interesting with relatively warm water to the south of SNE. 10/3/79 redux? You might have just gave Kevin a heart attack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 44F for a low here. KFOK got down to 32F though, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Thanks for posting that!!! On my phone and would have been a pain to do that. That is pretty nuts to see at this timeframe. Do you know what it has for MLcape probs? 30% for 1000 J/kg just tickles ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 SREF_prob_mlcape_500__f051.gif 30% for 1000 J/kg just tickles ISP. Not too bad this far out. Maybe would like to see 50% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Sunrise surprise? SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f054.gif Not a bad number for a two day prog on the SREF. Yeah pretty good there, and that specific product really does a good job IMHO. SSTs in the U60s still south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Yeah pretty good there, and that specific product really does a good job IMHO. SSTs in the U60s still south of LI. Yeah the warm sector should have no problem getting dews into the mid-60's...maybe a few ticks higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 30.7° F for a low here, so it was our first freeze. This was another one of those years where we went straight to freeze since we didn't have a frost. The ground was covered in white; it almost looked like a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Climo says not so fast... But September and October can be interesting with relatively warm water to the south of SNE. 10/3/79 redux? Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 2h2 hours ago Interesting forecast for tomorrow & Wednesday morning. Wouldn't be surprised to see one or 2 feisty thunderstorms. Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 2h1 hour ago @ryanhanrahan I started with 6z GFS and it looks typical for OCT: great speed/lift with some MUCAPE. Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 1h1 hour ago @antmasiello All about getting those higher dew points inland. Will be interesting to see if other models trend toward NAM? Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago @ryanhanrahan just looked at NAM..wow! SBCAPE/theta-e advection is impressive! Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan 1h1 hour ago @antmasiello Yeah - yikes. That's as good of a "look" as you'll see for a noturnal event around here. Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago @ryanhanrahan throw in long island's magical powers....lol Expand Reply Retweet Favorite More Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 1h1 hour ago @ryanhanrahan arguably a weird EML comes in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Ryan, An EML comes in overnight? What models show that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Ryan, An EML comes in overnight? What models show that? Not sure I would go there in the true spirit of an EML, but models do show decent lapse rates aloft advecting over the region early Wed. i.e. a pocket of decent lapse rates, rather than a mixed layer advecting off the western high terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Ryan, An EML comes in overnight? What models show that? The NAM is quite odd. It has a very steep area of lapse rates... nearly dry adiabatic from 850-650mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 One year ago tomorrow an EF-1 spinner hit Paramus, NJ. Possibly a damaging repeat for somebody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 The Euro is pretty unstable. Nice surge of CAPE and boundary layer moisture prior to 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 If the NAM wasn't overdone, that would be a highly impressive pre-dawn setup for this part of the country in October. But still, as mentioned, the Euro has decent instability up here too. The 6z RGEM surges nearly 1,000 J/kg SBCAPE to the CT shoreline by 6z Wed. EHI values are elevated too from NYC into LI and coastal CT. A loose match analog is October 28th, 1995. That event spun up a tornado on Staten Island and left sporadic wind damage up into southern New England. Even a compromise between the robust NAM and the less impressive GFS still yields a more volatile setup than 10/28/95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 6, 2014 Share Posted October 6, 2014 Can anyone guess If there would be any lightning with the convection or just gusty winds and thunder like quite a few fall storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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