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Carvers Gap

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I've probably spent 8-9 hours on it this week. But I've asked for snow all winter so I'm not complaining. I feel bad for those in Wise and Lee County where buildings have collapsed because of all the snow. The EOC, food bank, and car dealership all fell in in Wise County. A church collapsed in Lee County. A lot of people don't have running water up there. I would say this would be the most snow on the ground for them at one time in 20 years (2-3 feet).

My driveway is about 75-100 yards long and is uphill most of the way. The start of the driveway has a good curve in it. That's where the trouble is. I should of finished it yesterday while it was slushy. Man that's some really bad luck with the van sliding. You can't make up some stories, lol. She has had some bad luck right? Didn't she wreck last year? Or was that another member?

Here is the start of my driveway looking back to the road. I couldn't shovel the stuff below. Its a solid sheet of ice and I'm out of salt.

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Yeah I can see how that could be trouble!

 

My wife did play bumper cars last year, the county didn't brine the hill in front of the elementary school.  Big pile up of cars slowly sliding into each other.  A really nice BMW got hung up on her van's trailer hitch, really did a number on it (the BMW) lol.

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I hate picking on MRX...but this borders on absurdity...in the oft chance that 6 out of 7 models are wrong and you are right, the tenn valley gets no snow tonight (you as a wx met believe with 70% certainty), given the conditions of several of the locations wouldn't you go ahead and throw out the possibility of a WWA, especially considering how poorly short term forecasting has faired in the last week or so?.  My road is black ice from day time melting and refreeze.  You put an inch on top of that and I would have no clue that black ice is under the inch of snow tomorrow morning. 


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I hate picking on MRX...but this borders on absurdity...in the oft chance that 6 out of 7 models are wrong and you are right, the tenn valley gets no snow tonight (you as a wx met believe with 70% certainty), given the conditions of several of the locations wouldn't you go ahead and throw out the possibility of a WWA, especially considering how poorly short term forecasting has faired in the last week or so?. My road is black ice from day time melting and refreeze. You put an inch on top of that and I would have no clue that black ice is under the inch of snow tomorrow morning.

Advisories are going up as it type this. I agree with everything you said though. They waited too late to put it out.

Shew, im getting really tired of shoveling. 5 hours a day to shovel my driveway is too much for fat guy. lol. Just saw they issued a few winter weather adv. for a few counties in East Ky for tonight through tommorow. Thats just across the state line for me, just hope its not enough to shovel.

Just think of it as burning calories! :) Yeah JKL beat Morristown to the punch as they normally do.
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GFS doubling down on the southern track. I'm just hoping the Euro and Ukie don't decide to shift to that tonight.

e4486248cf34623a29f8827238e1e7b1.jpg

You've got to know when to hold 'em

Know when to fold 'em

Know when to walk away

And know when to run

You never count your clown maps

When you're sittin' at the table

There'll be time enough for countin' inches

When the dealin's done

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He just did mention it but his wording didn't change too much. "1-2 inches on average for NE TN. "

 

That may have been the most half assed weather forecast I've ever seen haha. Seriously, he used the Viper model again which spit out the same amounts and geographically showed the snow not making it north of grey tn (less then .5 inches at that) and not much further west then Greenville (?).  Then strangely he wraps up the forecast with "most everybody in the tri-cities should see 1-2" inches of snow all the while half the graphics weren't actually working....might of been better off just saying "look, I've worked hard this week covering the last storm, I am tired, it's cold, I want to go home"

 

EDIT: I actually like Mark Reynolds the best of the mets up here

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Yeah haha. You've got sun angle, solar mins/max, sunspots, cloud thickness, etc. Oh, and don't forget that the atmosphere has to heal first.

On a seriously note the sun didn't do jack squat on my driveway today.

I'm thinking the whole valley gets 2-3 tonight and into the morning.

I feel your pain on the driveway. I parked I 6 inches of slush. It froze and lifted my car just enough to get no traction. I had to pick it out with a coal pick.
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I feel your pain on the driveway. I parked I 6 inches of slush. It froze and lifted my car just enough to get no traction. I had to pick it out with a coal pick.

 

Bless your heart...and back. The ice frozen underneath is the bear. I just spent 2 hours on my driveway and I'm still not 100% sure I can get out. 

 

Came back inside to discover the water is off and my neighbors confirmed it's an area wide outage. It's annoying but it could be worse! Could be power!  :lmao:

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Bless your heart...and back. The ice frozen underneath is the bear. I just spent 2 hours on my driveway and I'm still not 100% sure I can get out. 

 

Came back inside to discover the water is off and my neighbors confirmed it's an area wide outage. It's annoying but it could be worse! Could be power!  :lmao:

 

Oh no Kev!  Hope they get it fixed quickly!

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Oh no Kev!  Hope they get it fixed quickly!

 

It's okay Stove! Drinking melted snow water, taking a snow bath, etc fits in with my ongoing plan to make sure my 17 year old Son is tough enough!

 

Me? Fuhgeddaboudit!!!

 

edited to add:

 

As someone who works outside for a living (surveyor), rarely do I see someone working outside and am thankful I don't have their job. However there are three exceptions. One of those would be the guys working for water utilities during this time of year. Those guys are on call and are called out at all times of the day or night to get down into a hole and work with running water in freezing temps. They are under paid for the most part and the lower paid guys do the worst of the work. They really do a great job and everyone needs to think about them at times like this...

 

Oh, and the other two jobs I'm thankful someone else does? Those roofing or paving during the summer. 

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How does everyone think the models are going to wobble at 0z?  I think we in the valley have to hope for more ampage like the NAMs of last night and this morning.  That might have been a bias of the model though so it may very well end up a weaker compromise solution, say a blend of 18z NAM and 12z Euro.  I guess that is what I'll realistically pick for the 0z NAM/RGEM/GFS runs.  SREF is liable to go totes cray cray.  I sure would love to see a juicier more north and west expansion of the precip as a trend though!

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I don't get sick of snow but the last two weeks, just tracking threats alone, has been taxing.  It's hard to find suitable places to park here from snow plow drifts.  It will not hurt my feelings if this storm does a little brush job for upper east tn and plasters cha and other areas.  Looks like 60s by next week so it's about to be over soon enough.

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