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Carvers Gap

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My sister-in-law lives in the northwest quadrant. Two feet plus and they already have had like 4'. Sick, man. Just sick. Drifts will be historic.

Basically, looks like the next two storms create short term 50/50s and "sort of" create high latitude blocking by slowing the jet. Each storm sets the table with cold for the next one.

The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal.

Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us!

I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall.

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The blizzard train keeps rolling for them. Our storm could blow up again and give them another foot. That's really the only place that's had a snowy winter. Us, the Midatlantic, Philly-NYC, and the Ohio Valley have been well below normal.

Your right all of these nor'easters are helping us out without the -NAO. I'm not worried really anymore if we don't see a -NAO develop. The Pacific and +PNA has really been helping us out. Somebody brought up 1960 as a analog. Of course that is an extreme analog that would take about 50 years to happen. I could see us getting into a 1960-lite version through March. But we know back in November where looking at analogs got us!

I'll be happy if we get a few systems to finish off. Maybe we can finish close to average on snowfall.

But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited.

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But November patterns often repeat and I think that is what is happening. We all knew that if that pattern showed itself during winter, it would be impressive. Trying not to get too excited.

Yeah I just thought it would happen about the 3rd week of January. I bought into the hype. You never did and you've said all along that February was going to be where our bread would be buttered. I'm cautiously optimistic too. We still are going to need some good timing with these pieces of energy in the pipeline. That is something that has killed us all winter without a -NAO. We haven't been able to slow the flow down. I think we would of already had a few good events if the forecasts back in November(of a long and consistent -AO/-NAO) had panned. The Cohen teleconnections didn't work out this winter at all.

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Wondering the same thing, lol. To chase snow, eastern KY around London, Hazard, or Jackson looks like the sweet spot. 

 

As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model.  It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals.  His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast.  I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). 

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As I was just watching Mark Reynolds (upper east tn) weather forecast he showed live viper future model.  It's a little strange to me that hazard, and summerset are getting such higher storm totals.  His Viper cast showed showed the most intense "precip" running from Knox north, northeast.  I guess they are getting the benefit of much higher ratio's or the angel of the warm nose is such that it funnels enough warm air into SWVA to create the difference (8-12 wise, 12-15 KY). 

I often question the validity of the forecasts in-house models (such as VIPIR) spit out. I've been told that some are a blend of model output, while others are simply the RPM. 

I haven't looked at any text output, but my guess is that area is where the best combination of moisture and atmospheric conditions exist. FWIW, it was but 24-36 hours ago that that sweet spot was modeled over East Tennessee. So close, yet so far.

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Lots of schools starting to close...Sullivan County just announced closed for tomorrow. I'm guessing they may miss the whole week.

 

Hawkins was closed tomorrow for the holiday already. I agree that the local counties will probably be closed all week.

 

Just heard from my daughter that ETSU has cancelled classes tomorrow as well.  

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Wow I guess this storm defines why we need mets as opposed to relying on autopilot. I still have no idea if I'll wake up to freezing rain/sleet to rain, or if I'll be looking at a monster snow storm at KTRI, less then 8 hours out. 

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