MillvilleWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Surprised they didn't add a weenie 8-12" for southern York where the Himalayas are apparently located for our region JK of course. Doesn't look too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 Yeah I'm very surprised they extended the 6-8 that far southwestward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 All of 18z went east. .25 to .5 in MDT now on GFS and in AVP. Down to .1 for IPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 The GFS didn't move east as much as it shuts off west precip. You can I think ignore it completely at this stage. It sucks in these setups, so sayeth almost every met and the guys in here who know what they're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I think until the GFS proves its worth, you have to go with Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 As I recall, the GFS/NAM were the last to catch on to the NW trend in the 2/13/14 event. UK/ECM crushed them big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 24, 2014 Share Posted November 24, 2014 I'm all on board for the Ukie!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NWS snow maps doing their see-saw with accumulations. Most of the previous 6-8 is now down to 4-6. Will it change again??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Early call here, hehe. think 4-6" is safe , some lost to rain and meltng wed during the day in lsv. but once it changes over some good rates of wet snow early If it starts later may be more. Just my 2 cents. Will be an elevation snow even locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Man, we get a storm watch and it goes dog quiet in here 0_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Bc 18z was a stinker lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NWS snow maps doing their see-saw with accumulations. Most of the previous 6-8 is now down to 4-6. Will it change again??? Did they? I'm on the CTP site right now and it looks about the same to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 NWS snow maps doing their see-saw with accumulations. Most of the previous 6-8 is now down to 4-6. Will it change again???Look the same to me.No changes til after the 0z guidance IMO. 18z was pat the course, no changes really to mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Surprised they didn't add a weenie 8-12" for southern York where the Himalayas are apparently located for our region JK of course. Doesn't look too bad We hillbillies are used to being ignored by the big city folk. What doesn't ignore the hills is snow. This should be another fun one to watch unfold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 I was a little surprised at the expanse of the winter storm watch region from CTP but they are likely covering their bases given the impact potential with Wednesday being one of the busiest travel days of the year. Still some uncertainty on the exact track and heavy snow axis. I do like the Euros precip extent with a storm like this, but did notice it seemed a bit lighter today. What may end up happening is a fairly wide area of advisory snows in the eastern half to two thirds of PA but a relatively thin zone of warning type snows. Also, regarding the track, CTP had this to say in yesterday afternoons long range AFD: THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIRENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THATTHE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH ORNORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITSENSEMBLE/. And here's an excerpt of today's AFD for posterity: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW REMAINS VERY HIGH...WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING IN EXACTTRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL IMPACT ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.THE TAKEAWAY FROM THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE WESTWARD DRIFTOF THE TRACK EVIDENT IN DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HASSTOPPED...WITH ECMWF CONTINUING TO FORECAST THE TRACK WEST OF THEGFS/GEFS. VARIATIONS IN QPF FIELDS CONTINUE...BUT SETTLING IN ONAROUND A QUARTER INCH FROM KJST-KIPT TO CLOSER TO 0.75 IN THELOWER SUSQ VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Did they? I'm on the CTP site right now and it looks about the same to me... Look the same to me. No changes til after the 0z guidance IMO. 18z was pat the course, no changes really to mention. Well...they're up to their old tricks again, I see. I just went back to the top of this page that has 2 posts of the snow map and they are back to the way they were originally. I don't think I'm losing my mind, but you never know. I'm pretty sure many past storms had this same thing keep occurring. Up-down-up-down...etc. Even the point-and-click forecasts have been known to wobble back and forth over very short time intervals. Well, then, I guess it is still "Game On"...lol. FYI---Zac posted his map and has most of the lower susq valley and heading northeast from here in the 6-8" band also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Thinking local hehe, 4-6 here with it starting as rain and changing to a wet snow to real snow In the LSV we will lose a lot to rain and melting at first. I think its going to be an elevation snow.hope im wrong could be more with cold air coming down as advertised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Well...they're up to their old tricks again, I see. I just went back to the top of this page that has 2 posts of the snow map and they are back to the way they were originally. I don't think I'm losing my mind, but you never know. I'm pretty sure many past storms had this same thing keep occurring. Up-down-up-down...etc. Even the point-and-click forecasts have been known to wobble back and forth over very short time intervals. Well, then, I guess it is still "Game On"...lol. FYI---Zac posted his map and has most of the lower susq valley and heading northeast from here in the 6-8" band also. Oh, I agree it happens.We HAVE to get to Carlisle Thursday, I have to cut/haul wood for my wife's grandmother. Should be interesting. Tonight I loaded the gravel, ice scrapers, brushes and shovel in the Rav4 for the winter! Remember all to get your winter kits in your car. It can save your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 Please tell me somebody took 20 bucks from Joe. lolol You mean gave...I was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 The east trend can stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 0n the WPC site they are saying UKMET has trended towards ECMWF while CMC has trended towards the GFS. And the Nam is Nam. Edit: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 25, 2014 Author Share Posted November 25, 2014 00z NAM is solid for CTP CWA. Warning level snow above 600 ft. elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 What east trend? That's the best run i've seen the NAM have for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vogan Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Welcome back, this is the NAM we know and love! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 We just got NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Lol, now Euro and GFS will go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This almost gets wpa back into things lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 This sub forum probably doesn't want to look at the HI RES NAM. or lots of bridge jumping, SHARP CUTOFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 25, 2014 Share Posted November 25, 2014 Hi-RES nam says CPA what storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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