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dryslot

NNE Fall Thread

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MPV at 74F with the record being 76F...though will probably fall short as temps seem to be leveling off some now.

 

4pm ob at BTV was 79F! New record for the date. Will have to see if it touched 80 in between obs.

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4pm ob at BTV was 79F! New record for the date. Will have to see if it touched 80 in between obs.

 

Latest occurrence of 79F since 1979 (35 years).

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BURLINGTON HAS A CHANCE TO TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER IF THE LOW ONLY GETS TO 68
...WHICH IS WHAT
WE ARE FORECASTING.

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Latest occurrence of 79F since 1979 (35 years).

 

 

BURLINGTON HAS A CHANCE TO TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD WARMEST LOW

TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER IF THE LOW ONLY GETS TO 68...WHICH IS WHAT

WE ARE FORECASTING.

 

That's fairly impressive.  If someone could set their all time warmest low temperature for a given month, its BTV with that southerly flow.  Given the strength of that breeze right now, and continued WAA aloft, there's no way that temperature will drop too far tonight.

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Love the SLK temperature graph for the last 48 hours, haha.  This morning's low was over 20 degrees warmer than the 21F yesterday, and this afternoon temperatures were over 50 degrees warmer than 36 hours prior.

 

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That's fairly impressive.  If someone could set their all time warmest low temperature for a given month, its BTV with that southerly flow.  Given the strength of that breeze right now, and continued WAA aloft, there's no way that temperature will drop too far tonight.

 

3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

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3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

Is this for tonight or Wed night?

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3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

 

I see LAHIFF is ready for winter though...on the lookout for higher elevation potential ;)

 

ON SATURDAY...CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH

DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH

THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY

CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS

CRASH BELOW 0C. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS

STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY OFFERING DRIER CONDITIONS TO START

THE WORK WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...WE`LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY PRE-FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S

TO 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS

SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND

40S. AT THE SUMMITS...WE`LL SEE MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS WITH TEMPS

ONLY IN THE 20S TO 30S.

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Is this for tonight or Wed night?

 

Another Key West night in mid-October?

 

Tonight... Increasing clouds, with a low around 68. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

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I see LAHIFF is ready for winter though...on the lookout for higher elevation potential ;)

 

ON SATURDAY...CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH

DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH

THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY

CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS

CRASH BELOW 0C. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS

STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY OFFERING DRIER CONDITIONS TO START

THE WORK WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...WE`LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY PRE-FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S

TO 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS

SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND

40S. AT THE SUMMITS...WE`LL SEE MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS WITH TEMPS

ONLY IN THE 20S TO 30S.

 

Haha TABER's been going nuts watching this warm week unfold.

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I was gonna say, the MAV/MET was just as warm, or warmer, for Wed night.

 

Wow yeah it is, could we go two nights with a low near 70? A few rain showers coming in late may be enough to ruin it.

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Haha TABER's been going nuts watching this warm week unfold.

 

I'm sure he has, haha.  Hopefully I can get a chance to do some pre-season hiking/skiing with those guys if we get an early storm again.  Nothing like a bunch of winter weather nuts wandering around in the snow, lol. 

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Congrats Torchington VT.

 

Haha, I see what you did there ;)

 

Halfway through the month, you can certainly tell NNE has had the warmth relative to normal...from Pittsburg, NH back to BTV.  It sort of makes sense in this pattern as the areas with the highest departures are the spots that would be some of the coldest in a NW flow pattern, which is probably more common this time of year than 70-80F temps.  Climo is counting on some of those 42F -DZ type of upslope flow days, not a prevalent southerly flow or CAA from the SW when it does occur.  Anyway, these departures will be cool to look at in like 3 days when they double, lol.

 

 

Interestingly, looking at the average temp maps these first two weeks of October, you can see the two spots in NNE with the "green" (54-57F) is Torchington, VT and over Laconia, NH's banana crop.  BTV has had the same average temperature the past two weeks as Boston over to Ginxy to BDL, lol.  At least here east of the Spine in the MVL-MPV corridor its been more similar to the other mountainous areas of NNE.

 

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Have you seen the new Davis tipper cone?

 

7345.527.jpg

Yes... I think davis stole my idea.  Several years ago, I got fed up with birds crapping in mine so I cut and cable tied a little chicken wire fence around the cone to accomplish the same thing.

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Pretty crazy for 10:30pm in mid-October.  I've got 66.2F here in Stowe. 

 

Interesting obs in New Hampshire...HIE is 68F at 10pm and BML is 56F at the same time.  Southerly flow might be causing some downslope mixing there at HIE, and the Gorham Airport is also 71F right on the immediate north slope.

 

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