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dryslot

NNE Fall Thread

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For Wednesday.  Just read the Grey Maine afternoon discussion, they don't seem very enthused about meaningful rainfall.

 

Not until Saturday, and it sounds like the heaviest then would be hit or miss.

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Anyone notice any human obs of snow mixing in up around Frenchville last night? This ob was interesting.

 

METAR KFVE 300753Z AUTO 08007KT 2 1/2SM UP BR BKN003 OVC013 02/02 A3013 RMK AO2
UPB45 SLP210 P0000 T00170017

 

35F with UP.

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2 1/2SM

Haha ahh I'm browsing on mobile and the second line of text starts with 1/2sm...didn't see the 2 on the previous line.

2 1/2sm sounds more like early season wet snow though haha.

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September precipitation summary for Orwell, VT (CoCoRaHS VT-AD-5)

 

Total Precipitation (inches): 1.70

# of Days with Precipitation: 8

# of Consecutive Days with Precipitation: 2 (on 9/11 and 9/12, and again on 9/17 and 9/17)

# of Consecutive Days without Precipitation: 8 (9/23 through 9/30, continuing into October)

 

One word description of September: Dry

Australian description of September: Dry as a dead dingo's donger.

 

Comparison with Previous Septembers (2009-2013)

 

2009: 4.05

2010: 2.47

2011: 4.71

2012: 3.89

2013: 1.74

 

Comparison with Nearby Stations:

Burlington 2014, Average, Departure: 1.63, 2.64, -2.01

Rutland 2014 (Average and Departure not available): 1.36.

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September 2014

 

Avg max:  66.83   (-0.8)

Avg min:  43.33  (-1.8)

Mean temp: 54.98  (-1.3)

 

Warmest:  82 on the 5th

Coldest:  26 on the 19th   (Tied with 9/26/2009 for 2nd coldest in Sept; coldest was 23 on 9/29/2000.)

 

Warmest min:  62 on the 1st  (Sept had 3 days with min 60+; August had none.)

Coolest max:  53 on the 13th

 

Precip: 0.84"  Driest Sept here, breaking the 1.45" of Sept 1998.  Also ties Nov 2012 for 3rd driest of the 196 months of record since we moved to New Sharon.  April 1999 (0.31") is #1, followed by my coldest month, Jan 2004 (0.57")

 

Largest daily preceip was 0.30" on the 11th.  The final 2 weeks had only 0.04".

 

No thunder was heard; last rumble was Aug 14, and OND period avg is 0.75/yr.

 

Another month (makes six in a row) without much in the way of noteworthy wx.  Temps were streaky, with 1-6 avg +7.0, 7-20 avg -7.1, then 21-30 avg +1.9.

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If we get some breezy conditions and heavier rain on Sat/SatPM, going to be heavy heavy leaf drop.

From BTV...

"Latest 12z GFS and 00z ensemble data in excellent agreement with closed 500 mb/7h cyclonic circulation lifting across the central Great Lakes on Saturday and into central Canada on Sunday. Meanwhile...potent 500 mb vorticity will round developing trough axis and create a negatively tilted middle/upper level trough across our region...which will help advect deep Atlantic moisture into our forecast area. Have noted GFS ensemble precipitable water values between 1.50 and 1.75" on Saturday afternoon...which is 1 to 3 Standard above normal. This combined with favorable 500 mb positive vorticity advection from vorticity and strong ribbon of uvv's will result in a 6 to 10 hour window of rain across our County Warning Area on Saturday. Thinking arrival time will be around 12z slv...and 18z dacks/western cpv...and into eastern Vermont by 00z Sunday. Given the available moisture/dynamics and slow progression of surface boundary...thinking quantitative precipitation forecast will range between 0.25 and 0.75" with localized amounts near 1.0 likely."

"Also...watching the potential for breezy/gusty south to southeast winds on Sat afternoon. Latest 12z GFS continues to show 925mb winds of 45 to 55 knots...along with 850 mb jet of 60 to 65 knts. However...these strong winds are closely associated with the heaviest rain axis...which may limit mixing to the surface. Thinking gusts between 35 and 40 miles per hour will be possible the slv/dacks/western slopes...and parts of the cpv on Sat. This will need to be watched closely as event becomes better sampled by our local hi resolution models. "

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86F in JAX waiting for my flight to BTV, which has been delayed 2 hours. Hopefully I won't miss my connection at LGA. I can't wait to get home to some more comfortable temps.

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If we get some breezy conditions and heavier rain on Sat/SatPM, going to be heavy heavy leaf drop.

From BTV...

"Latest 12z GFS and 00z ensemble data in excellent agreement with closed 500 mb/7h cyclonic circulation lifting across the central Great Lakes on Saturday and into central Canada on Sunday. Meanwhile...potent 500 mb vorticity will round developing trough axis and create a negatively tilted middle/upper level trough across our region...which will help advect deep Atlantic moisture into our forecast area. Have noted GFS ensemble precipitable water values between 1.50 and 1.75" on Saturday afternoon...which is 1 to 3 Standard above normal. This combined with favorable 500 mb positive vorticity advection from vorticity and strong ribbon of uvv's will result in a 6 to 10 hour window of rain across our County Warning Area on Saturday. Thinking arrival time will be around 12z slv...and 18z dacks/western cpv...and into eastern Vermont by 00z Sunday. Given the available moisture/dynamics and slow progression of surface boundary...thinking quantitative precipitation forecast will range between 0.25 and 0.75" with localized amounts near 1.0 likely."

"Also...watching the potential for breezy/gusty south to southeast winds on Sat afternoon. Latest 12z GFS continues to show 925mb winds of 45 to 55 knots...along with 850 mb jet of 60 to 65 knts. However...these strong winds are closely associated with the heaviest rain axis...which may limit mixing to the surface. Thinking gusts between 35 and 40 miles per hour will be possible the slv/dacks/western slopes...and parts of the cpv on Sat. This will need to be watched closely as event becomes better sampled by our local hi resolution models. "

 

Yes it appears my last leaf trip of the season will be tomorrow, and then I will come back here and piss people off with enhanced photos ;).

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Its all good eyewall.  Soon enough you will be translating to your great Vermont snow squall videos and we can't enhance those!!

 

That is true. I will never forget the one last November. That was essentially a highlight of the entire winter.

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I found this gem of an AFD back from the New Year Nor'easter on December 31, 2000... I loved how BTV lumped Burke into the upslope region with Jay Peak and Underhill.  Oh how much we've learned since then...

 

Awesome track for heavy snow here...hopefully a few of these this year.  This storm verified WSW criteria after all.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BURLINGTON VT 136 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2000

 

...NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY... WNTR STM WATCH FLAGS WL BE HOISTED FOR PRTNS OF CWA...PLS SEE SUMMARY SECTION BLO WITH ZONE GRPGS. MDL CONSENUS DRG THE PAST FEW RUNS AND ESP THE LATEST RUN (12Z/29) HAS INCSRD CONFIDENCE LVLS ACRS THE BOARD. NRLY ALL SHORT RANGE MDLS (ETA/AVN/NGM) HAVE AGREED ON STORM TRACK FM DVLPG COASTAL OVRNGT ARD VA/NC BDR TO JERSY SHORE (00Z SUN) TO BLOCK ISLAND (12Z SUN)...GULF OF ME (18Z SUN) AND NR NOVA SCOTIA BY 00Z MON. AVN SLGTLY QUICKER THRU H+42 THEN SLOWS TO MEET WITH ALL. ALSO...AVN SLGTLY W (INLAND) BY <50NM FM OTHER MDLS. MEANWHILE... GEM CONTS TO DEAL AN "INSIDE STRAIGHT" AND QUICKER LIKE AVN TO NR KNYC BY 00Z SUN AND KPWM BY 12Z SUN...ALBEIT A SLGT EWRD TREND FM PRVS RUN.

 

PTYPE IS EASY...SNOW!!! THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH?!

 

AVN/ETA VRY SMLR WITH 0.4-0.6 QPF ACRS CHMPL VLY EAST ACRS VT WITH ERN/SRN SECTIONS TOWARD HIER AMTS BUT EVEN SOME ISOL HIER AMTS IN NW VT. TMPS BRG ABT 15:1 SNOW RATIO AND THUS PUT GOOD PRTN OF FA ARD WATCH CRITERIA.

 

CHMPL VLY/ADRNDKS QUESTIONABLE BUT GIVEN MDL UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PSBL ORAGRAPHICS WITH WRAPARD WL INCLUDE GIVEN ONLY WATCH. THE MAIN EVENT IS SAT NGT/SUN WITH TAPERING OFF IN SRN VT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONTG THRU AFTN ACRS NRN FA. THEREAFTER...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM NR NOVA SCOTIA BRGS ABT CLIMO-FVRD WRAPARD FEATURE INTO NE VT AND CHAMPLAIN VLY NEW YEAR/S EVE AND CAN SEE PERSISTENT -SN/-SHSN "RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR".

 

THIS WL LKLY BRG ABT GRT SNOWFALL DRFNCS BTWN NW UPSLOPE REGIONS LIKE JAY PEAK/UNDERHILL/BURKE...ETC AND NEARBY VALLEYS WITH NR WRNG THRESHOLDS IN NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BUT EASILY REACHED VALUES NXT DOOR. IN FACT...AS WITNESSED WITH DFRNT TYPE OF WRAPARD IN CHMPL VLY LAST NGT/TDY AND MANY PAST STORMS SNOWFALL SUN NGT CUD TOP US ABV WRNG CRITERIA BUT JUST BEYOND ANY GIVEN 24 HR PD.

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I found this gem of an AFD back from the New Year Nor'easter on December 31, 2000... I loved how BTV lumped Burke into the upslope region with Jay Peak and Underhill.  Oh how much we've learned since then...

 

Awesome track for heavy snow here...hopefully a few of these this year.  This storm verified WSW criteria after all.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

BURLINGTON VT 136 PM EST FRI DEC 29 2000

 

...NOR'EASTER WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY... WNTR STM WATCH FLAGS WL BE HOISTED FOR PRTNS OF CWA...PLS SEE SUMMARY SECTION BLO WITH ZONE GRPGS. MDL CONSENUS DRG THE PAST FEW RUNS AND ESP THE LATEST RUN (12Z/29) HAS INCSRD CONFIDENCE LVLS ACRS THE BOARD. NRLY ALL SHORT RANGE MDLS (ETA/AVN/NGM) HAVE AGREED ON STORM TRACK FM DVLPG COASTAL OVRNGT ARD VA/NC BDR TO JERSY SHORE (00Z SUN) TO BLOCK ISLAND (12Z SUN)...GULF OF ME (18Z SUN) AND NR NOVA SCOTIA BY 00Z MON. AVN SLGTLY QUICKER THRU H+42 THEN SLOWS TO MEET WITH ALL. ALSO...AVN SLGTLY W (INLAND) BY <50NM FM OTHER MDLS. MEANWHILE... GEM CONTS TO DEAL AN "INSIDE STRAIGHT" AND QUICKER LIKE AVN TO NR KNYC BY 00Z SUN AND KPWM BY 12Z SUN...ALBEIT A SLGT EWRD TREND FM PRVS RUN.

 

PTYPE IS EASY...SNOW!!! THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH?!

 

AVN/ETA VRY SMLR WITH 0.4-0.6 QPF ACRS CHMPL VLY EAST ACRS VT WITH ERN/SRN SECTIONS TOWARD HIER AMTS BUT EVEN SOME ISOL HIER AMTS IN NW VT. TMPS BRG ABT 15:1 SNOW RATIO AND THUS PUT GOOD PRTN OF FA ARD WATCH CRITERIA.

 

CHMPL VLY/ADRNDKS QUESTIONABLE BUT GIVEN MDL UNCERTAINTY WITH QPF AND PSBL ORAGRAPHICS WITH WRAPARD WL INCLUDE GIVEN ONLY WATCH. THE MAIN EVENT IS SAT NGT/SUN WITH TAPERING OFF IN SRN VT BY MIDDAY SUNDAY BUT CONTG THRU AFTN ACRS NRN FA. THEREAFTER...VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM NR NOVA SCOTIA BRGS ABT CLIMO-FVRD WRAPARD FEATURE INTO NE VT AND CHAMPLAIN VLY NEW YEAR/S EVE AND CAN SEE PERSISTENT -SN/-SHSN "RINGING IN THE NEW YEAR".

 

THIS WL LKLY BRG ABT GRT SNOWFALL DRFNCS BTWN NW UPSLOPE REGIONS LIKE JAY PEAK/UNDERHILL/BURKE...ETC AND NEARBY VALLEYS WITH NR WRNG THRESHOLDS IN NEIGHBORING VALLEYS BUT EASILY REACHED VALUES NXT DOOR. IN FACT...AS WITNESSED WITH DFRNT TYPE OF WRAPARD IN CHMPL VLY LAST NGT/TDY AND MANY PAST STORMS SNOWFALL SUN NGT CUD TOP US ABV WRNG CRITERIA BUT JUST BEYOND ANY GIVEN 24 HR PD.

 

Those abbreviations are painful to read. Thankfully we're moving away from those.

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Those abbreviations are painful to read. Thankfully we're moving away from those.

How would that have worked?  Did the guy type it out normally and then it gets abbreviated by some automated system? 

 

I could type all that in a few minutes, but I think my brain would explode if I had to stop and think about abbreviating every possible word.

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How would that have worked?  Did the guy type it out normally and then it gets abbreviated by some automated system? 

 

I could type all that in a few minutes, but I think my brain would explode if I had to stop and think about abbreviating every possible word.

 

That's manually typed like that. I know I couldn't do it lol.

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September 2014

 

Averages/Totals
Max 69.4°F (+0.8°F)
Min 48.4°F (+0.6°F)
Mean 58.9°F (+0.7°F)

Precip 0.96"

ET 2.69"

Extremes
High Max 84.5°F (5th)
Low Min 33.4°F (20th)
Low Max 55.6°F (13th)
High Min 64.3°F (1st)

Max Rain 0.40" (6th)

Peak Gust 26mph (6th)

 

Max 6" Soil 71°F (6th and prev dates)

Min 6" Soil 55°F (20th)

 

High Bar 30.64inHg (24th)

Low Bar 29.49inHg (22nd)

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That is true. I will never forget the one last November. That was essentially a highlight of the entire winter.

Unless you got caught driving in it.  Most other folks on the road didn't realize what was happening and a melee ensued. 

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0.04" of drizzle so far going back to late last night. The droplet size is so small that they instantly evaporate when hitting my heated precip detection sensor...i.e. I'm not even detecting any precip. I probably need a second leaf wetness sensor that is minimally heated (enough to prevent dew, but not so much to evaporate drizzle).

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About an .10" so far (noon).

Hey, does anyone know the average first day of a trace of snow for the Lakes Region of NH? I am guessing mid October but really have no idea for my area, Plymouth NH.

Mid to late October sounds reasonable, especially for graupel showers that get recorded as snow.

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About an .10" so far  (noon).

 

Hey,  does anyone know the average first day of a trace of snow for the Lakes Region of NH?   I am guessing mid October but really have no idea for my area, Plymouth NH.

 

Not sure about Trace, but the first measurable is November 18th.

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That's later than I would've guessed for an average date.

Oct measurable is very rare around here. Like Nittany said, about 2/3 into Nov sounds about right. If you look at my sig, I had 3 years without any November measurable. A trace is a lot earlier though. When you're accumulating the snow in NW flow during Oct/Nov, we're usually only getting occasional flurries/graupel showers with temps of 35-45F.

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In 16 years here, these are avg (and extreme) 1sts:

Trace: 10/28 Extremes: 10/4 and 11/21

0.1"+: 11/9 Extremes: 10/23 and 12/7

1.0"+: 11/20 Extremes: 10/25 and 12/8

In 2003 our first measurable came on 12/6, the start of a 24" blizzard.

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