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dryslot

NNE Fall Thread

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Dropped to 72F at BTV but now back up to 73F at the 10 pm ob.

 

Let me tell you...sitting out on Church Street, grabbing a drink with friends, and sitting outside in 72 degree weather in mid OCT with a breeze was epic.

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Dropped to 72F at BTV but now back up to 73F at the 10 pm ob.

 

Let me tell you...sitting out on Church Street, grabbing a drink with friends, and sitting outside in 72 degree weather in mid OCT with a breeze was epic.

Min of 69 so far. They had 2 10 minute showers and didn't even blink.

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Min of 69 so far. They had 2 10 minute showers and didn't even blink.

 

7am ob dropped to 68F, so best we can do is tie. Not sure what happened between hours.

 

But man what a morning!

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60.1°F was the low this am, About +31°F from Sunday morning.............lol

 

Was at 60 when I left for work, low probably upper 50s.  A long way from Monday's 23.

 

I'll be at a woods camp north of Jackman (Moose River Outpost) tomorrow thru Saturday.  Might see the sun peek out just before we have to leave - not quite the wx we'd hoped for.

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Was at 60 when I left for work, low probably upper 50s.  A long way from Monday's 23.

 

I'll be at a woods camp north of Jackman (Moose River Outpost) tomorrow thru Saturday.  Might see the sun peek out just before we have to leave - not quite the wx we'd hoped for.

 

Looks like bad timing, Next week would be awesome late fall weather up there

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This is a pretty cool time-lapse of the foliage season up at Stowe/Mansfield... from green to stick season. 

 

The view is from Barnes Camp, I'll have to see if they have a web cam there (which it looks like this was taken from a web cam)...would be a clutch spot for a live cam at 1,550ft.  For reference in the winter, my "Barnes Camp" snow stake and snow board are in the woods off to the right of that parking area. 
 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=840072162691373

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Looks like bad timing, Next week would be awesome late fall weather up there

 

For sure, and the get-together (church mens' retreat) was scheduled months ago.  Hope things are watertight.

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Saw Mansfield also set a record high, so torch at all elevations...I thought I saw 66F though. It was colder most of the summer days I worked up there lol.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/GMgetobext.php?sid=MMNV1&banner=gmap

... New daily record high set atop Mount Mansfield Vermont...

The high temperature reached 64 degrees atop Mount Mansfield on

October 15th. This breaks the previous record high temperature of

62 set back in 1984.

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You know it's a torch when you're basically able to add a +1F to the monthly avg in just 1 day.

 

 

That's July climo right there wow.

 

Still a lovely 74F at 9pm. Went for a night run, heaven!

 

 

Here's a fun fact, the average temperature for today was 74F, 3 degrees ABOVE peak July Climo of 71!

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Brian, what were the dates of snowfall in April of 2007? 

For measurable I have...

 

4/4 5.5"

4/5 3.8"

4/8 0.1"

4/12 5.8"

4/15 3.6"

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Brian, what were the dates of snowfall in April of 2007? 

                                 : 
early_april%20004.jpg
Date taken                       : 2007:04:04 22:49:31
 
okemo%20008.jpg
Date taken                       : 2007:04:12 13:38:16
 
various%20001.jpg
Date taken                       : 2007:04:15 13:43:36
 
 

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Dear God, I forgot how snowy it was there.

 

That was a special time... 51" at the Mansfield co-op in the first 15 days of April 2007, even with their under-catch collection issues.

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For measurable I have...

 

4/4 5.5"

4/5 3.8"

4/8 0.1"

4/12 5.8"

4/15 3.6"

We got a bit more, from 4 different events:

2-3: 0.3"/2.0"

4-5: 3.5"/15.0"

12-13: 3.0"/8.2"

15-17: 2.5"/1.2"/1.5" (5" snow and 5" rain from one event)

Yesterday's 76/57 was +21, and today's AM low of 62 is 27F above my avg for the date. Should not be recording CDD in mid Oct.

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I look back at winter 2007/2008 i had recorded 30 events with snowfall for a total of 137.80", That is a full month of days of snow

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...maybe some accums coming on Sunday with decent looking upslope period.

 

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

 

BTV on board...

 

By Saturday night/Sunday...strong low level cold air advection develops and prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop blw 0c...with gusty northwest winds. This will result in snow levels quickly dropping to Summit level by 06z Sunday and between 1800 and 2400 feet by 12z Sunday...as 850 mb temperatures fall between -3c and -5c by 12z Sunday. Given favorable northwest 850 mb follow of 35 to 40 knots...leftover 850 to 500mb moisture in trough axis...and some 500 mb vorticity...expect mainly terrain driven precipitation...with valley rain and mountain snow showers on late Sat night into Sunday. I have mention high chance to low likely probability of precipitation for the favorable upslope regions of the northern dacks and central/northern greens mountains with chance probability of precipitation in the valleys. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts will range from a trace to 0.25 or so in the mountains...with a dusting to several inches of snow likely by Sunday morning above 2000 feet.

 

I saw your post and looked at the forecast today - snow is definitely starting to show up, and the latest run of the GFS suggests some snow flying up in the elevations much of Sunday.  The BTV NWS discussion also hints at watching Tuesday as well:

 

CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD

FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY AFTN-SATURDAY

NIGHT AND THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINING ACRS FA THRU SUNDAY. THIS WILL

SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE

LIKELY CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB

TEMPS CRASH BELOW 0C FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

 

MONDAY...BROAD NW CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES WITH SOME WEAK HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDING FOR MONDAY...THUS RELATIVELY DRY BUT AOB

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

 

TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SFC WAVE EVENTUALLY RESULTING INTO

ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WITH SOME COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. ATTM...MAIN

SHIELD OF PCPN SHOULD REMAIN ESE OF FA BUT TROF AXIS ACROSS CWA THUS

CANT RULE OUT SOME INSTABILTY VLY SHRA AND PERHAPS MTN SHSN.

 

 

This warm weather has been really nice, but it’s hard to beat seeing those flakes appearing in the graphical forecast for Mansfield:

 

16OCT14A.jpg

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BTV posted on social media...these were the overnight lows, and they are 5-10F higher than our average HIGHs this time of year.  Just crushing the large positive departures the past couple days.  The banana belt in western VT especially doing its best July impression.

 

10712708_740889749316262_465369867258086

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looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool

 

Hahaha.  Feels tropical out there.

 

0.70" in the gauge so far.  Looks like we've got more coming in from the SE. 

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