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NNE Fall Thread


dryslot

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Latest occurrence of 79F since 1979 (35 years).

 

 

BURLINGTON HAS A CHANCE TO TIE THE ALL TIME RECORD WARMEST LOW

TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER IF THE LOW ONLY GETS TO 68...WHICH IS WHAT

WE ARE FORECASTING.

 

That's fairly impressive.  If someone could set their all time warmest low temperature for a given month, its BTV with that southerly flow.  Given the strength of that breeze right now, and continued WAA aloft, there's no way that temperature will drop too far tonight.

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That's fairly impressive.  If someone could set their all time warmest low temperature for a given month, its BTV with that southerly flow.  Given the strength of that breeze right now, and continued WAA aloft, there's no way that temperature will drop too far tonight.

 

3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

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3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

Is this for tonight or Wed night?
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3 hour MET Guidance has BTV at 69F and LAV guidance has 67F. Barely getting below 70F on a mid-October night, lol crazy.

 

We'll see what actually happens though.

 

Then of course the low would have to survive until the next midnight.

 

I see LAHIFF is ready for winter though...on the lookout for higher elevation potential ;)

 

ON SATURDAY...CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH

DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH

THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY

CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS

CRASH BELOW 0C. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS

STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY OFFERING DRIER CONDITIONS TO START

THE WORK WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...WE`LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY PRE-FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S

TO 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS

SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND

40S. AT THE SUMMITS...WE`LL SEE MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS WITH TEMPS

ONLY IN THE 20S TO 30S.

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I see LAHIFF is ready for winter though...on the lookout for higher elevation potential ;)

 

ON SATURDAY...CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH

DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH

THE NORTH COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH P-TYPE LIKELY

CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS 925-850MB TEMPS

CRASH BELOW 0C. SOME LINGERING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE

SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS

STARTS TO SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY OFFERING DRIER CONDITIONS TO START

THE WORK WEEK.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPS...WE`LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY PRE-FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S

TO 50S. BEHIND THE FRONT...MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPS RETURN WITH HIGHS

SUN/MON/TUE ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND

40S. AT THE SUMMITS...WE`LL SEE MORE WINTER-LIKE TEMPS WITH TEMPS

ONLY IN THE 20S TO 30S.

 

Haha TABER's been going nuts watching this warm week unfold.

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Congrats Torchington VT.

 

Haha, I see what you did there ;)

 

Halfway through the month, you can certainly tell NNE has had the warmth relative to normal...from Pittsburg, NH back to BTV.  It sort of makes sense in this pattern as the areas with the highest departures are the spots that would be some of the coldest in a NW flow pattern, which is probably more common this time of year than 70-80F temps.  Climo is counting on some of those 42F -DZ type of upslope flow days, not a prevalent southerly flow or CAA from the SW when it does occur.  Anyway, these departures will be cool to look at in like 3 days when they double, lol.

 

 

Interestingly, looking at the average temp maps these first two weeks of October, you can see the two spots in NNE with the "green" (54-57F) is Torchington, VT and over Laconia, NH's banana crop.  BTV has had the same average temperature the past two weeks as Boston over to Ginxy to BDL, lol.  At least here east of the Spine in the MVL-MPV corridor its been more similar to the other mountainous areas of NNE.

 

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Pretty crazy for 10:30pm in mid-October.  I've got 66.2F here in Stowe. 

 

Interesting obs in New Hampshire...HIE is 68F at 10pm and BML is 56F at the same time.  Southerly flow might be causing some downslope mixing there at HIE, and the Gorham Airport is also 71F right on the immediate north slope.

 

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