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Fall Banter Thread


TauntonBlizzard2013

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A temp/dew of 51/35? Probably sleet or graupel?

 

KMDW 041253Z 25011KT 8SM -SNRA SCT013 SCT021 OVC026 03/00 A2971 DZB26E35RAB35SNB35 SLP066 P0000 T00330000

 

It was 38/32 at the time. I think Ginxy was posting the earliest date (in 1928) with a high/low of 51/35.

 

Also at Rockford:

KRFD 041154Z 23009KT 4SM -RASN BR BKN010 OVC023 02/00 A2971 AO2 RAB06 SLP063 P0001 60001 70001 T00170000 10044 20017 57010

 

 

Columbus, OH too:

KCMH 041351Z 28016G21KT 7SM -SN BKN026 BKN039 OVC075 04/00 A2980 AO2 WSHFT 1325 RAB03E26SNB47 SLP094 P0000 T00390000

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Seems the point on Cpc was missed. It's not the forecast that is criticized. They haven't made a forecast. They've issued probabilities and that's not a forecast. They don't commit to anything so can verify no matter what happens. It's a joke

 

Perhaps the state of the science in Long Range Forecasting is such that all that can be confidently issued is probabilities, and that deterministic long range forecasting is not realistically possible (or responsible) at this point.

 

Let's just say the weekly Farmers Almanac forecasts aren't science :whistle: .

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Perhaps the state of the science in Long Range Forecasting is such that all that can be confidently issued is probabilities, and that deterministic long range forecasting is not realistically possible (or responsible) at this point.

Let's just say the weekly Farmers Almanac forecasts aren't science :whistle: .

The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion
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The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion

 

Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast.

 

The forecast looks fine - I don't know why you're having such a meltdown about it. 

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The public doesn't understand probabilities and don't want to see that. They generally want something that is quantifiable. The majority don't want to see say a 10% chance of 12 inches of snow, 30% of 6 and 90% of 1 inch. They want to know how much is going to fall by the time the storm is over. It's just human nature. All probabilities do is show uncertainty from the forecaster and create confusion

 

This is where you just can't go in and give the public what they want.  They don't understand probabilities...but they also don't understand how this science works and many don't understand it's an imperfect science.  

 

In the end probabilistic forecasting is probably the best way to go, especially with long-range forecasting b/c with long range forecasting not only can issuing something "precise" (like +2 or -1 to -2) be very difficult but it's really impossible to know for sure that "one area" will see something in that range exactly.  

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Thankfully the public has basically no use for a seasonal forecast.

 

The forecast looks fine - I don't know why you're having such a meltdown about it. 

 

I would have to disagree here to an extent...I think more and more people are becoming interested in seasonal forecasting.  I know I get asked a ton by people "how's this winter looking" or "how's this summer looking".  

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This is where you just can't go in and give the public what they want. They don't understand probabilities...but they also don't understand how this science works and many don't understand it's an imperfect science.

In the end probabilistic forecasting is probably the best way to go, especially with long-range forecasting b/c with long range forecasting not only can issuing something "precise" (like +2 or -1 to -2) be very difficult but it's really impossible to know for sure that "one area" will see something in that range exactly.

But that's exactky the point. In order to quantify weather something is right or wrong you need to have finite numbers. Probabilities are a way to snake out of issuing something concrete that can be judged and scrutinized and graded.
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But that's exactky the point. In order to quantify weather something is right or wrong you need to have finite numbers. Probabilities are a way to snake out of issuing something concrete that can be judged and scrutinized and graded.

 

But there is more to things whether it's just right or wrong, especially when you're talking about a field where the margin of error can be fairly high.  the issuance of probabilities gives exactly what the word indicates...the probability of an occurrence.  

 

I will say though, I don't exactly understand what is meant by the probabilities NOAA issued...for example, they have us >40% warmer...does that mean there is >40% chance of being warmer than normal or we will be 40% warmer than normal?  

 

Anyways, what you can do is say something like, there is a 70% chance of being colder than average...this indicates there is a pretty decent likelihood of being colder than average...however, say it ended up closer to normal or slightly above...you can still say the forecast was incorrect.  

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What do you mean they have no use for it? I don't follow. Of course they want to know what each season holds from a forecast perspective

 

Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast. 

 

People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it.

 

Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol

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Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast. 

 

People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it.

 

Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol

 

Oh ok, I see what you're saying now

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Unless you're a niche user (business, energy company, etc.) there's really no use that the average person would have for a seasonal forecast.

People may have a passing interest in it but they're not going to change plans or do any different based on it.

Why you're having such a temper tantrum over the CPC forecast is beyond me lol

Then why does your station issue a winter forecast each autumn?
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