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September Discusssion--winter bound or bust


moneypitmike

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I see hints of this cool pattern attempting to change late month, but euro ensembles sort of squashes any attempt with lowering heights over the midwest sliding southeast towards the northeast us as the ridge in the west starts to rise once again.

 

GFS ens 6z has negative anom's over us pretty much until +15 days out too. 

 

Any hoo, I think we see a warm up around the beginning of October, probably pretty transient. 

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The jury may still be out up in New England for Saturday night but closer down towards NYC looks rather wet. Tuesday looks very interesting on the Euro as a fairly amplified trough goes negative tilt and our first potential noreaster' of the season forms south of Long Island. Some weak phasing actually occurs between the disturbance coming out of the deep south and northern stream energy swinging through the lakes.

 

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Nyc south sure. In a dry , drought pattern why go wet ? Let's wait before calling for inches of rain to Montreal

We're undergoing a pattern change. Wave lengths are increasing, the northern stream jet is starting to drop further south. We're going to be talking about synoptic mesoscale systems rathern than pure convection which is always a crap shoot. At the temperature gradient increases over the next few weeks, model scores will improve thanks to baroclinic zones which are largely absent during the warm season.

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Around 0.40" of rain so far today...nice consistent 0.1"/hr soaking. Yesterday's runs of the WRF4 had some orographic enhancement in this area and it's 0.5" estimate looks like it'll be close. BTV getting downsloped with only 0.1".

 

You guys up north are getting the lion's share.

 

.04" here.

63.9/63.  It sure is cold inside the Pit.  Much cooler than outside.  Shawl's needed.

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