Post Tropical Cristobal

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that's impressive.

[Amped]

Got some cold cloudtops, but it's an ugly looking hurricane.  Anyone have a good H5 temperature map? My guess is that the northerly shear is transporting cold air aloft aiding with the deep convection in the southern semicircle.  And who predicted we'd be 3/3/0?

[Superstorm93]

Got some cold cloudtops, but it's an ugly looking hurricane.  Anyone have a good H5 temperature map? My guess is that the northerly shear is transporting cold air aloft aiding with the deep convection in the southern semicircle.  And who predicted we'd be 3/3/0?

 

Decent cold pool to the north...

 

[Amped]

Decent cold pool to the north...

 

 

Thanks, cold pool does look decent especially for this year which has been pretty stable across the MDR.

[Wannabehippie]

It sure doesn't look the part, but recon found the evidence...

 

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014

820 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED TO BE 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUMMARY OF 820 PM EDT...0020 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.0N 71.9W

ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

One of the ugliest hurricanes you will see.

[N. OF PIKE]

_{This NASA loop is beautiful.    (Especially when you speed it up) Cristobal Looks like you can see his Mid level center spinning like a top and rotating up and around toward the LLC.}

[WEATHER53]

This is still just dawdling.  Who knows what might pick it up, or not.

[AvantHiatus]

This is still just dawdling.  Who knows what might pick it up, or not.

Waiting for some recon fixes, would be very useful right now. Cristobal definitely looks stationary with a slight east or southeast drift.

[Absolute Humidity]

Ridiculous thermal feeding grounds to her west into the gulf

 

[Juliancolton]

As indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is nottypical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quitelinear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of afrontal zone.

 

I know the NHC has no choice but to adhere to recon data—we'd be fools to not appreciate the luxury we have in the Atlantic of daily hard data on nearly every storm—but this is abominable.

 

[Juliancolton]

Some formidable convection wrapping around the western side of the CoC. Beginning to resemble a tropical cyclone!

[bugalou]

I know the NHC has no choice but to adhere to recon data—we'd be fools to not appreciate the luxury we have in the Atlantic of daily hard data on nearly every storm—but this is abominable.

 

img24cr26.gif

vis0-lalocr26.gif

 

Go home Cristobal, you are drunk.  You are just making a fool of yourself out there.

 

I suppose it is interesting to see something atypical though...right?

[calm_days]

I suppose it is interesting to see something atypical though...right?

 

 

Yes, for anyone interested in tropical cyclone / front interactions so far this has included a few different phenomena on a large scale.  Look how two additional vortices are forming now that the front and cyclone have merged; this does seem to happen from time to time but it is the most recent case.   

How will they change over the next few days, and the next week; and which of them will become the largest ULL; if any of them reaches occlusion, how much will they occlude? 

[phil882]

Over / Under on Cristobal's max intensity based on the 11am NHC forecast?

 

Perhaps this is a bit bullish but I'll easily take the over with a max intensity somewhere in the 90-100 knot range given another 36-48 hours over water > 27 C. Definitely a marked increase in organization of the inner core of Christobal today and as the shear continues to decrease and trough interaction is complete, we should see the inner core further organize. Dry air thus far has not really be a hinderance of inner core convection as seen on microwave imagery. In fact it could help tighten up the circulation as the shear continues to decrease. 

 

[bluewave]

Some very impressive dry air for late August to the west of Cristobal.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
BROAD UPPER/MID LEVEL RIDGING IS SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A WAVE OF
BREEZY WINDS TONIGHT THAT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF
OVERNIGHT. AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR MASS FOR AUGUST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 1.25 INCHES OR LESS.

[Superstorm93]

I feel like a broken record here...

 

We have a ton of lightning wrapping around the mid-level eye feature. In addition, recon seems to be finding a rather large eye developing (around 35nm or so). It seems that Christobal is on another intensification binge, or should shortly begin one.

 

I'd say this peaks near 85 knots (+/- 5 knots) 

 

[Solak]

This is pretty cool...

 

 

NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center

Just now ·

The GOES-14 super rapid scan was focused on Hurricane Cristobal in the W Atlantic today! Dr. Michael Folmer, GOES-R and JPSS Satellite Liaison for OPC, has written another interesting blog entry discussing today's imagery. It includes a very impressive animation of the imagery combined with the experimental lightning data. Click on the image in the blog entry for a larger version of the loop:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.wordpress.com/2014/08/26/hurricane-cristobals-lightning-distribution/

[Superstorm93]

Main SRSO link for the rest of the year (or program)

 

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor2014/GOES-14_SRSOR.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Recon is finding an intensifying storm. The extrapolated pressure is down to 982 980mb, flight-level winds are up to 85 knots, and surface winds are up to 70 knots.

[milkman]

Over / Under on Cristobal's max intensity based on the 11am NHC forecast?

Perhaps this is a bit bullish but I'll easily take the over with a max intensity somewhere in the 90-100 knot range given another 36-48 hours over water > 27 C. Definitely a marked increase in organization of the inner core of Christobal today and as the shear continues to decrease and trough interaction is complete, we should see the inner core further organize. Dry air thus far has not really be a hinderance of inner core convection as seen on microwave imagery. In fact it could help tighten up the circulation as the shear continues to decrease.

Middle_of_the_road Cat2

[Mitchel Volk]

I am betting that it goes to a cat 3 storm before it weakens. I see a lot of good dynamics going for it in the short term.

[Wannabehippie]

Ugly looking hurricane

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

 

Looks like it is being torn apart by the extra-trop feature to its northeast.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Hurricane Cristobal continues to become better organized today, with deep convection trying to wrap around a large eye. Dry air should continue to present itself as an issue over the next day, but wind shear should remain low enough for slow to steady intensification. I could see this becoming a Category 2 hurricane before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.

 

Recon is set to depart at 1445z (10:45am EDT).

 

[bugalou]

Ugly looking hurricane

 

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsat.html

 

Looks like it is being torn apart by the extra-trop feature to its northeast.

 

I think it's pretty cool what it has done upsteam in the front as pointed out yesterday.  It looks like Cristobal is flicking it's wrist on a taut rope and sending waves down the line.

[bluewave]

The dry air to the west of Cristobal and over the Atlantic Basin continues to be the big

story this hurricane season. Charleston SC came very close to its driest late August

sounding on record this morning.

 

 

 

[Wannabehippie]

Hurricane Cristobal continues to become better organized today, with deep convection trying to wrap around a large eye. Dry air should continue to present itself as an issue over the next day, but wind shear should remain low enough for slow to steady intensification. I could see this becoming a Category 2 hurricane before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone.

 

Recon is set to depart at 1445z (10:45am EDT).

 

Water vapor IR still shows a lot of dry air being entrained in.  Until it can get rid of that, this system will not be strengthening quickly if at all.  http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif

[calm_days]

I think it's pretty cool what it has done upsteam in the front as pointed out yesterday.  It looks like Cristobal is flicking it's wrist on a taut rope and sending waves down the line.

 

About 4 days satellite animation

 

Yes, i've compiled an animation that follows from before the development to right now!  There is a very dramatic change in the front seen after the initial merging happens where thousands of miles of the front switch over to a hurricane-type appearance.  This has been seen on many occasions, but i'm not sure if it has a name? 

 

Then, the simultaneous development of the extratropical low circulations upstream, as the tropical cyclonic development intensified, is well-chronicled thanks to this great GOEs image database from University of Washington.   

I agree with how you describe the phenomenon.  They are each a similar size and shape throughout the process so far.

[N. OF PIKE]

Hurricane Cristobal has had a persistent southerly fetch aimed toward Long Island, Rhode Island and the Island of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard for days.

 

I couldn't find data showing length of the fetch (w/out /quick scat satellite it is difficult) but the Swells that will be pinging off of Long island over toward the South Coast of New England will be Well overhead and building quickly tonite. Around midnight Yesterday swell heights jumped on bouy 41048 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048 upwards of 17ft @ 14.8 seconds. Taunton area discussion calls for 6-9 foot swells tomorrow, which should lead to breaking waves at faces well over 10 feet.

[Wannabehippie]

Hurricane Cristobal has had a persistent southerly fetch aimed toward Long Island, Rhode Island and the Island of Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard for days.

 

I couldn't find data showing length of the fetch (w/out /quick scat satellite it is difficult) but the Swells that will be pinging off of Long island over toward the South Coast of New England will be Well overhead and building quickly tonite. Around midnight Yesterday swell heights jumped on bouy 41048 http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41048 upwards of 17ft @ 14.8 seconds. Taunton area discussion calls for 6-9 foot swells tomorrow, which should lead to breaking waves at faces well over 10 feet.

I am planning on going to Jones Beach on Friday. Chances are good that swimming will be greatly restricted, but I just want to see those waves crashing in.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I am planning on going to Jones Beach on Friday. Chances are good that swimming will be greatly restricted, but I just want to see those waves crashing in.

Swell is going to peak tomorrow morning. We kept the beach open to swimming at jones beach today with minimal rescues. Tomorrow the water will be closed to swimming as that giant captured fetch swell will be pumping onto and up over the beach.

The captured fetch that was produced as it moved straight north will be on par with what you expect with a storm moving away that is much more intense aka what southern calli has been getting from a former cat 5. The east coast shelf will reduce raw power as opposed to calli so even with a similar size swell we shouldn't see waves anywhere near that size.

Still this is an absolutely ideal track for waves on the south facing beaches of the north east. I can't sleep due to adrenaline pumping to surf at first light!