Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

andyhb

Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, jojo762 said:

18Z NAM shows what is quite possibly one of the better looking setups of the year, especially for late June in Kansas/south of I70. Hard to get too excited given the awful trend we’ve experienced this year though, as was discussed above.

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Storm mode is my main concern. Looks like things could grow upscale fast with strong forcing and high instability. I haven't looked to see how strong the capping is

Both 00Z NAM and GFS depict QPF bombs so that’ll probably be what does this in. Different evolution of the MCS on the models though...but for sure looks like a sig severe event for damaging winds and hail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, rolltide_130 said:

On that note, today and tomorrow have both trended down significantly. 

Expect next week to do the same within 36 hours.. that's all I really have to say about that. It will happen. 

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak if discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

I see where he's coming from, in that it seems like a waste of favorable moisture, low-level and deep layer shear if it's not going to produce long-lived, photogenic tornadoes especially given the dearth of setups that have featured all three conditions overlapping at all this year and most of last.

I mean, come on, it's late June and not enough cap to prevent a convective mess?

  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's not too often you find the 3000 -4000 J/kg of CAPE at the same areas as 50-60 kt of shear in June. And this almost shows a good overlap of these elements. It seems to be true that multicells/ squall line(s) will be likely tomorrow. It definitely could be more interesting (discussion-wise) to see more discrete supercells. Realistically, we may see quite a few severe storms with 30 - 45 kt of shear, as maybe those 50 kt values will be in the cold air sector.

SyT8Rfr.jpg

 

atZjFkV.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

18Z NAM completely kills the setup tomorrow with a convective complex that develops this evening over E CO/W KS then meanders it’s way to SC KS/N OK by 12z tomorrow, then NC OK by 15Z... not sure im buying it, but likewise it completely obliterates downstream moisture. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Quincy said:

You do realize tomorrow was upgraded to a moderate risk? Granted it's not looking like an outbreak of discrete storms, but significant  severe seems likely given the degree of shear and instability expected. 

 

Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, rolltide_130 said:

 

Before being downgraded back to Enhanced risk. 

In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. 

On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Quincy said:

In all honesty, the moderate seemed a bit overdone. It's a very complex setup and it doesn't take much to throw a wrench in higher-end potential, especially with a seasonally anomalous setup so far south. 

On the bright side, drought areas have and should continue to get drenched with much needed rainfall. 

 

That's true. However as for severe, I'm now back into looking towards the next season. 

2019, at least for now, looks a bit more promising in terms of seasonal analogs (I saw 2010, 2007, and 2005 mentioned - 2010 and 2007 both being good years and 2005 not being great but still a massive upgrade over this year), but we'll have to see if that holds or if, when we do get good setups, mesoscale features don't actually ruin it. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And today was downgraded even further to Slight, with a Marginal where the original MDT was. 

I think we may be locked in to 2018 being the worst severe season on record at this point, even worse than the 1980s... this is abysmal. 

  • Like 2
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×