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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion


andyhb
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Saturday would look a lot more interesting with upper 60s to ~70F dewpoints across the warm sector in OK/southern KS, instead of the low-mid 60s currently progged by most guidance. Cap strength is going to be a problem for storms moving off of the dryline, unless the current guidance is underestimating low-level moisture return. Even if the current progs end up verifying, there could still be an interesting storm or two near the triple point and/or warm front, though. 

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On 5/5/2021 at 10:10 PM, Powerball said:

Looks like DFW's average highs for JJA and September increased roughly 1*F for each month with the 1991 - 2020 normals.

It seems April and May's average went down 2-3*F though. 

Here is a table I created highlighting the differences between our new, current normals and 1981-2010. Low temperatures increased the most which was interesting.

Image

Here is the table highlighting key precip differences. Our "wet season" is actually drier than the old normals, with 7/12 extreme precip events occurring in the past 30 years alone (not shown).

Image

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  • 2 weeks later...

For DFW, May 2020 ended -2.2*F below normal. Unfortunately, it was still 0.3*F shy of making the top 20 coldest list (the two 90*F+ days in the last full week messed that up). 

 

That said, this was the coldest May since 2015, and the 2nd coldest in 24 years.

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https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=fwd&wwa=severe thunderstorm warning

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
440 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Montague County in north central Texas...
  Cooke County in north central Texas...

* Until 545 AM CDT.

* At 436 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Wilson to 7 miles northeast of Grady to near
  Terral, moving southeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...65 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Multiple automated weather sites in southern Oklahoma
           have measured 55 mph to 65 mph winds.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Gainesville, Bowie, Nocona, Muenster, St. Jo, Lindsay, Callisburg,
  Forestburg, Sunset, Stoneburg, Lake Kiowa, Ray Roberts Park Johnson
  Branch and Valley View.
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3 hours ago, Witness Protection Program said:

Still dive bombing from Kansas, has widened out and is now stretched from past Lawton to Henryetta, OK.

Keeps blowing through 30% chance of rain areas and widening. 

Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol.

I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either.

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18 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Yeah, so much for that 10% chance of rain, lol.

I suspect the 90*F+ high today ain't going to happen either.

Correction:

 

The line decayed as soon as it reached the Dallas County border. Not even going to get the benefit of a heavy/torrential downpour from this.

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21 hours ago, Powerball said:

Well that didn't take long.

Hi-Res models have a MCS diving southward through DFW early tomorrow morning.

Naturally, there can only be one outcome (decaying stratiform rain then socked in cloud debris for Saturday).

^^^Right on the money.

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Oh dear god, make it stop..

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131106
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/

Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress
southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex
is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a
large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the
southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will
dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas,
there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near
and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds
are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward.
Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity
River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and
Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in
spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the
area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads
the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough
such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If
not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward.

This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally
thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution
model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an
increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously
nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening
hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several
days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence
that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region.
Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small
cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered
along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe
weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep
layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep
low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe
caliber wind gusts.
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8 hours ago, Powerball said:

Oh dear god, make it stop..

000
FXUS64 KFWD 131106
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
606 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Monday/

Another decaying complex of storms has continued to progress
southeastward toward North Texas. While the vigor of this complex
is much less than that of last night, it has overachieved as a
large cold pool has allowed it to progress quickly to the
southeast. While it does appear that most of the complex will
dissipate completely prior to its arrival into North Texas,
there`s enough of a risk that 20-30 PoP have been advertised near
and north of the US HWY 380 corridor. For some areas, gusty winds
are possible as outflow continues to scoot east and southeastward.
Otherwise, some patchy fog has developed within the lower Trinity
River Valley across portions of Henderson, Anderson, Navarro and
Freestone counties. Visibility may fall down to near 2 miles in
spots. Fog will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

In the near term...I increased sky coverage for a majority of the
area as the cirrus canopy from the decaying complex overspreads
the area. I feel confident that this cloud cover will thin enough
such that highs in the low to mid 90s are still achievable. If
not---then MaxT grids will need to be nudged downward.

This afternoon, it appears that the risk for additional showers
and thunderstorms to develop has increased from originally
thought. Radar imagery from western Oklahoma shows a well defined
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV). Short term high-resolution
model guidance has resolved this feature well and advertises an
increase in showers/storms generally west of I-35. I`ve cautiously
nudged PoPs upward for late this afternoon and into the evening
hours given the poor performance of guidance over the past several
days. However, with the MCV quite apparent, I do have confidence
that showers/storms will develop somewhere across the region.
Given the abundance of moisture and thus instability, a small
cluster may evolve and dive southward out of Oklahoma---steered
along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. The severe
weather risk doesn`t appear overly high given the paltry deep
layer shear values; however, daytime heating may promote steep
low-level lapse rates and thus a risk for strong to near-severe
caliber wind gusts.

The cloud debris wasn't nearly as extensive as expected. Most of the day has been Sunny with blue skies (finally).

Currently 98*F at DFW. :devilsmiley:

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