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Central/Western Medium-Long Range Discussion


andyhb
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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

I'm talking strictly about the essence of what is shown in model land and not focusing whatsoever on any other day-of issues like moisture or mid-upper level flow orientation, etc etc.

Neither of those are really "day of" issues though. 

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00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

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5 hours ago, andyhb said:

00z Euro presents quite a volatile looking setup near/E of I-35 in OK at 168 hrs. Secondary vort max rotates around the base of the synoptic scale trough and leads to a south-southwesterly/southerly LLJ surge underneath strong WSW 500 mb flow and plenty of low level moisture (if you're thinking this sounds a lot like the setups in the second half of May in 2013, you'd be right). As a result, the level of turning with height is quite impressive.

I wasn't able to see the upper levels on the site I use for Euro. However I did like the strong sfc low shown near the panhandles. Gfs had a similar position albeit weaker. The moisture and cape were great. What did the jet orientation look like? Seems like models are trending less positive tilt now

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21 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I wasn't able to see the upper levels on the site I use for Euro. However I did like the strong sfc low shown near the panhandles. Gfs had a similar position albeit weaker. The moisture and cape were great. What did the jet orientation look like? Seems like models are trending less positive tilt now

9C2226D0-FAD5-454D-97EE-0DB7ADE6632C.thumb.png.6b5804a60e370ef1d65a768b6ac328b4.png

H500

8845D381-229F-416F-AC6E-CA0040BBAEBE.thumb.png.bcfa3a77a04c35ba407ba6c92d0e4131.png

H300 

4911D8B5-9CAD-4A7E-A8D2-6E42057B3BC0.thumb.png.f97dc5cb927c5f3ab229b60595d4331d.png

H200 

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Thanks for posting those man! Appreciate it. That is gorgeous! Nice low amplitude broad based trough. I know andyhb is a fan of those ;) and I love that it looks like another trough is loading in the SW behind it. Kinda reminds of the late May 2013. Could see several days of chasing opportunities with the possibility of a few bigger days. 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC019-029-325-252045-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0044.180425T1948Z-180425T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
248 PM CDT WED APR 25 2018

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northern Medina County in south central Texas...
  Southeastern Bandera County in south central Texas...
  Northwestern Bexar County in south central Texas...

* Until 345 PM CDT

* At 247 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Tarpley,
  moving east at 40 mph. This storm is likely producing very strong
  straight line winds.

  HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable
           tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes,
           roofs, and outbuildings.

* Locations impacted include...
  San Antonio, Bandera, Tarpley, Helotes, Fair Oaks Ranch, Cross
  Mountain, Lakehills, Cliff, Bandera Falls, Leon Springs, Mico,
  Government Canyon State Natural Area, Pipe Creek, Kronkosky State
  Natural Area, Hill Country State Natural Area, Sea World, Rio
  Medina, Grey Forest, San Geronimo and Scenic Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.
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Wrong thread for that SVR warning...

But the 12Z Euro and GFS seem to have come to at least some agreement on tuesday being potentially interesting... Still some differences in orientation of mid/upper level flow among other things, but definitely some agreement on dryline placement, degree of instability, timing of CI, and strength/direction of low-level flow. Also like the current precip fields, as both models appear to favor cellular activity along the dryline in OK/Southern KS.

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12 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

0z gfs very impressive. Esp on Wed. To me seems to be trending towards Euro like solution. Upper levels still more southerly than I prefer but still far out and plenty of time for improvement. Def a step in the right direction

TBF more westerly than god knows how many threats over the last few years.

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12 minutes ago, bjc0303 said:

00z euro for Wednesday looks rather potent. QPF field suggests long lived scattered activity. 

Wednesday verbatim on the euro is easily the best setup we've seen YTD, which isn't saying much, but nonetheless still impressive. 70-80kt bulk-shear atop 2000-4000J/KG CAPE, juxtaposed to more-than-sufficient turning and speed in the lowest 0-3KM. 

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1 hour ago, jojo762 said:

Wednesday verbatim on the euro is easily the best setup we've seen YTD, which isn't saying much, but nonetheless still impressive. 70-80kt bulk-shear atop 2000-4000J/KG CAPE, juxtaposed to more-than-sufficient turning and speed in the lowest 0-3KM. 

Couldn't say it better myself. And it has a nice tight sfc low which is deepening in that classic spot near the panhandles and se CO. Great turning like you said. If euro is right Wed def could be one of the bigger days in recent years in the southern Plains. And love that it is showing it in the better terrain near and west of I35

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I’m hopeful that either one of the days, Tuesday/Wednesday, will end up being a decent chase day. The synoptic pieces are there so that gives some confidence at this range. But I’m also trying to not get too excited given the 6/7 day lead time at this point. That said, Euro is really nice looking. 

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GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year.

Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition.

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19 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

GFS has come around to the Euro upstairs. 12Z has WSW at 200/500 mb which is a great contrast to those bowling balls earlier in the season. We'll see about the moisture, but at least the directional and speed shear (forecast) is significantly better than we have seen all year.

Yes this is a good synoptic pattern. Skeptics look at the charts. Now surface details are still up in the air, but calling the forecast synoptic scale good/great is very rudimentary pattern recognition.

GFS also seems to increasingly like monday as well. Tuesday looks like what could be a big day on the GFS with a very impressive,  potentially higher-end environment across much of western Oklahoma and southern KS, and Wednesday ends up being a slop fest. Clearly still some differences between Euro/GFS over what day(s) will end up being favorable and how each day evolves.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Hopefully won't get in trouble for posting this. Winds aloft not looking as westerly as before. Jet has more amplitude this time around and not as flat

Screenshot_20180426-125422.png

Says 00z.. the site basically lets you see the 12x frames up until you exceed what has come in, then you’re looking at 00z data. 

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