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2014-15 winter outlook

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That's funny you wrote that. I remember reading this article out of the Ashe County, NC paper prior to the 2009-2010 winter here in WNC. Turned out to be a doozy.

 

http://ashemountaintimes.com/community/mullis-predicts-dreaded-black-squirrel-winter/article_8529b5cb-249d-59e3-9503-333d957a13a8.html

 

lol, I didn't see the date earlier when Dacula posted it (2009).  I did a search and saw where he had 10 big beans and 7 little beans for the 2010-2011 winter....that was a bit of a miss I'd say

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lol, I didn't see the date earlier when Dacula posted it (2009).  I did a search and saw where he had 10 big beans and 7 little beans for the 2010-2011 winter....that was a bit of a miss I'd say

 

Not necessarily, the Highlands, which is his location, got hammered that winter as well if I remember correctly. I pulled this data off Appalachian Ski Mtn's website.

 

 

 

Snowfall 2012-2013: 49" 

Snowfall 2011-2012: 18.7" 

Snowfall 2010-2011: 62.6" 

Snowfall 2009-2010:71.8" 

Snowfall 2008-2009: 42" 

Snowfall 2007-2008: 17" 

Snowfall 2006-2007: 21" 

Snowfall 2005-2006: 40" 

Snowfall 2004-2005: 36"

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Not necessarily, the Highlands, which is his location, got hammered that winter as well if I remember correctly. I pulled this data off Appalachian Ski Mtn's website.

 

 

 

Snowfall 2012-2013: 49" 

Snowfall 2011-2012: 18.7" 

Snowfall 2010-2011: 62.6" 

Snowfall 2009-2010:71.8" 

Snowfall 2008-2009: 42" 

Snowfall 2007-2008: 17" 

Snowfall 2006-2007: 21" 

Snowfall 2005-2006: 40" 

Snowfall 2004-2005: 36"

 

Welcome to the board by the way.  Dec through early Jan were good that winter, but I don't recall much after that, even up there.  Those numbers are high though.

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Welcome to the board by the way.  Dec through early Jan were good that winter, but I don't recall much after that, even up there.  Those numbers are high though.

 

Thank you! Could be due to the elevation of the resort itself, but it's only 4 miles roughly, outside of downtown Boone. Just using a little transitive property, I am assuming that it was still above average across the board, for the highlands. I'll do some more digging.

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Welcome to the board by the way.  Dec through early Jan were good that winter, but I don't recall much after that, even up there.  Those numbers are high though.

Fill in the blank.

Ski resorts measure snowfall, using the same scale guys use to measure their ___________.

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Fill in the blank.

Ski resorts measure snowfall, using the same scale guys use to measure their ___________.

 

It's most likely inflated but I am not so much taking into account the specific numbers but rather the reporting trend. Beech Mountain reported 130" for 2010-2011. Whether that is true or not can be debated, but I still guarantee you that the snowfall totals for the High Country were above average for that season in which Mr. Mullis's colloquial fog and bean formula, was not that far off for his area. That's all I was saying. That old folklore has always fascinated me.

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Fill in the blank.

Ski resorts measure snowfall, using the same scale guys use to measure their ____hair_______.

lol

X

You just failed sociology.

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It's most likely inflated but I am not so much taking into account the specific numbers but rather the reporting trend. Beech Mountain reported 130" for 2010-2011. Whether that is true or not can be debated, but I still guarantee you that the snowfall totals for the High Country was above average for that season in which Mr. Mullis's colloquial fog and bean formula, was not that far off for his area. That's all I was saying. That old folklore has always fascinated me.

 

No need to explain.  I agree with your real point. Just having a bit of slow season fun, while admittedly violating the policies I am supposed to enforce.  

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No need to explain.  I agree with your real point. Just having a bit of slow season fun, while admittedly violating the policies I am supposed to enforce.  

 

I think I should save this post in case I ever need a "Get out of jail free" card on this forum...  :D

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Does anyone remember what the winter was like following Hugo? (89-90) winter? I must have been she'll shocked from Hugo and don't remember !?

 

It snowed in South Carolina that December. Check out pictures I just posed in Hurricane Hugo thread :)

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The moles are finally back home? When the heck are they coming to Savannah? The mayor has had the keys to the city waiting for them for 13 months! Also, the very nice owner of the motel at Tybee has held open one special booze filled king bed room for them for over a year! The limo driver has been asking me when they're finally going to arrive at the train station! The limo girls have been on standby to entertain them during the limo trip to the beach. The Tybee ice cream shop has been anticipating them coming by there forever and is wondering why I keep coming there without any moles! Everyone is waiting! Without the wild moles, there is no party. :(

Lol, Larry, what can I say?  One word from me and they do what they want.  I'm just the care taker of this asylum.  If you want to swing by and try to corral them, you are welcome to, but I must warn you two of them might have rabies, or they've been eating mushrooms again, and two of the males may be pregnant.  Meanwhile they are doing what they are supposed to as I had 5 inches in the gage after last night, and 2 or so was from past rains that didn't get poured...so I did good, or they did good, in the night.  I've gotten more rain in the last week than I've gotten all summer.  To bad my garden died months ago.  Looks good going into winter, because without rains you just have cold frustrations :)   T

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Ok ok, no more rodent forecasting.  Let's look at some data.  After reading a discussion about 500mb anomalies in the fall to forecast the winter NAO over in the MA forum and noting there is usually below avg heights over the Arctic in October, I ran a composite for strong positive and negative NAO winters for the previous September to see if any strong correlations show up.  Indeed, there is one area to note in the W Hem that had opposing significant departures.   ("Strongly" being a DJF average NAO of +/- 0.5 or more/less)

 

For Septembers with upcoming strongly positive avg NAO winters there is a strong positive anomaly over the Arctic ...

 

NpxG9Jj.png

 

For Septembers with upcoming strongly negative avg NAO winters there is just the opposite.. a negative anomaly in the GOA...

 

biUcrFJ.png

So how are we looking for the first half of September?  The Arctic basin is averaging near neutral...

 

VL0yGZI.gif

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Hello all......I rarely post, but always read what others are saying.  FWIW....I live in Raleigh and have a house at Beech Mountain, NC, near the ski resort. Our elevation is slightly more than 5500 feet.  The records show that the 2009-2010 winter dropped 137.6" of natural snow at Beech.   A very definitive microclimate exists here on the Watauga/Avery County line in North Carolina where Beech, Sugar, and Hawks Nest ski resorts are located and surrounds the town of Banner Elk, NC.  This area is about 12 NW of Appalachian Ski Mountain and our peaks are approx. 1500' higher than that of Appalachian. And, in the winter of 2009-2010 produced almost double the snowfall total recorded at Appalachian. 

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2014091518_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WI

 

Storm track setting up early?? I know it's in La La land, but this might be the beginning of the predominant winter storm track. Note the strong (for this time of year) high pressure over the lakes and the low pressure over Florida. If this were winter we would be watching this set up carefully.

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Hello all......I rarely post, but always read what others are saying.  FWIW....I live in Raleigh and have a house at Beech Mountain, NC, near the ski resort. Our elevation is slightly more than 5500 feet.  The records show that the 2009-2010 winter dropped 137.6" of natural snow at Beech.   A very definitive microclimate exists here on the Watauga/Avery County line in North Carolina where Beech, Sugar, and Hawks Nest ski resorts are located and surrounds the town of Banner Elk, NC.  This area is about 12 NW of Appalachian Ski Mountain and our peaks are approx. 1500' higher than that of Appalachian. And, in the winter of 2009-2010 produced almost double the snowfall total recorded at Appalachian. 

2009-2010 was epic. High Knob in SW Virginia had about 175" of snow. I was in the DC suburbs. Close to 90" in Northern Loudoun County.

 

A repeat of that season would be most welcome. :snowing:  

 

I hope you're right about the early season setup CAD!

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Mack/folks,

 I've said this before in jest and I'll say it again, especially with winter fast approaching: I wish those Euro clown (snow) maps were banned! They're not even what the Euro is really producing where 850's are not at or below 0C through the entire event! Like actual clowns, they should be laughed at. Just a reminder: the Euro clowns show all precip. falling with sfc temp's of 32 or colder as snow! Yes, you heard that right, folks. They ignore the 850's! For example, this shows a whopping 14" of snow in north ATL. Now, did I ever think anything close to 14" (would almost certainly be heaviest on record there) was possible there? No,because 850's above 0C wouldn't let that happen. The Euro wasn't really predicting 14" of snow, regardless of what its own clown showed lmao. It was predicting 1.4" of liquid equivalent falling with temp.'s of 32 or colder. The vast majority of this was predicted with 850's above 0C...so mainly IP or ZR, which is what verified. Now granted, the 1.4" of liquid equiv. did turn out to be too high as the total there was under 1". But the ATL area still got a major storm out of this including the greatest IP by far since 1/1988 on the northside and a major ZR on the southside. There was no reason to be extremely disappointed in what actually verified unless one took this clown at face value with its 14" nonsense. The scary thing is that they were circulating on Facebook (thank goodness I'm not a member) amongst the wx illiterates. These ignorant folks have no clue about these clowns being "fake" in these situations!

 

BAN EURO CLOWNS ASAP! They belong in the circus, not on wx boards and certainly not on FB!

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that map worked out pretty good for Chattanooga.. 7.2 inches, mostly snow. 

 

That's because 850's for CHAT were 0C or colder for a much larger % of the storm than ATL. As long as 850's are 0C or colder, these clowns are in agreement with the actual Euro model output.

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Mack/folks,

 I've said this before in jest and I'll say it again, especially with winter fast approaching: I wish those Euro clown (snow) maps were banned! They're not even what the Euro is really producing where 850's are not at or below 0C through the entire event! Like actual clowns, they should be laughed at. Just a reminder: the Euro clowns show all precip. falling with sfc temp's of 32 or colder as snow! Yes, you heard that right, folks. They ignore the 850's! For example, this shows a whopping 14" of snow in north ATL. Now, did I ever think anything close to 14" (would almost certainly be heaviest on record there) was possible there? No,because 850's above 0C wouldn't let that happen. The Euro wasn't really predicting 14" of snow, regardless of what its own clown showed lmao. It was predicting 1.4" of liquid equivalent falling with temp.'s of 32 or colder. The vast majority of this was predicted with 850's above 0C...so mainly IP or ZR, which is what verified. Now granted, the 1.4" of liquid equiv. did turn out to be too high as the total there was under 1". But the ATL area still got a major storm out of this including the greatest IP by far since 1/1988 on the northside and a major ZR on the southside. There was no reason to be extremely disappointed in what actually verified unless one took this clown at face value with its 14" nonsense. The scary thing is that they were circulating on Facebook (thank goodness I'm not a member) amongst the wx illiterates. These ignorant folks have no clue about these clowns being "fake" in these situations!

 

BAN EURO CLOWNS ASAP! They belong in the circus, not on wx boards and certainly not on FB!

 

GaWx, I love all your stats and appreciate all your contributions to our board, but I just can't get up on this soapbox with you.  Sure, the maps are incorrect.  Sure, WxBell should probably fix them.  But, there's no way that I would want to see them banned.  I enjoy them just like any other map that might be posted, but I just don't take them too seriously.  I'm also not too worried about the ignorant masses on Facebook.  People post stupid stuff on Facebook all the time, and that's their right.  (Though, like yourself, I'm also not a member.)  It's not for me to police what can and cannot be posted.  It's up to the individual to learn how to vet what information he/she accepts as true and what he/she questions.  Over time, the smart ones will learn which people they trust to get information from and which they don't.

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GaWx, I love all your stats and appreciate all your contributions to our board, but I just can't get up on this soapbox with you. Sure, the maps are incorrect. Sure, WxBell should probably fix them. But, there's no way that I would want to see them banned. I enjoy them just like any other map that might be posted, but I just don't take them too seriously. I'm also not too worried about the ignorant masses on Facebook. People post stupid stuff on Facebook all the time, and that's their right. (Though, like yourself, I'm also not a member.) It's not for me to police what can and cannot be posted. It's up to the individual to learn how to vet what information he/she accepts as true and what he/she questions. Over time, the smart ones will learn which people they trust to get information from and which they don't.

Calc,

Well, the banning part is once again pretty much in jest though I certainly wouldn't mind if they were somehow banned lol. Regardless, I really wish the Euro stopped producing them until if and when they're corrected. It is ironic that the most accurate model has about the worst snow maps. Even the GFS doesn't have grossly inaccurate ones. Just to clarify, it isn't just Weatherbell's that are wrong. My vendor's are also wrong. That's why it may be up to ECMWF, itself, to correct them. I hate the spread of clearly false information. By the way, I believe this is the same reason DGEX is almost always too snowy though their problem is magnified by a horrible underlying model .

Regardless, I plan to continue to make my feelings known whenever I see them posted. I can't and won't sit back and say nothing. The fact that they are Euro snow maps makes them even more misleading due to the good reputation of the Euro. Frustrating.

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Calc,

Well, the banning part is once again pretty much in jest though I certainly wouldn't mind if they were somehow banned lol. Regardless, I really wish the Euro stopped producing them until if and when they're corrected. It is ironic that the most accurate model has about the worst snow maps. Even the GFS doesn't have grossly inaccurate ones. Just to clarify, it isn't just Weatherbell's that are wrong. My vendor's are also wrong. That's why it may be up to ECMWF, itself, to correct them. I hate the spread of clearly false information. By the way, I believe this is the same reason DGEX is almost always too snowy though their problem is magnified by a horrible underlying model .

Regardless, I plan to continue to make my feelings known whenever I see them posted. I can't and won't sit back and say nothing. The fact that they are Euro snow maps makes them even more misleading due to the good reputation of the Euro. Frustrating.

 

For me to deny you this right would be antithetical to my previous post.  :D

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