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July 26-27 Severe Threat


Hoosier

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Hellacious caps on the 18z ILX and DVN soundings. Over 500 J/kg of CINH above the LFC on the DVN sounding. Almost 200 J/kg of CINH on the ILX sounding.

Sent from my SCH-I535

St. Louis is 99/72 right now with heat index of 109.  No wonder the mid levels have capping issues.  But wherever geographically this goes this evening, things are really gonna explode. IND thinking greatest risk is from 7 p.m to 3 a.m EDT.

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This report is to my north/northwest.

 

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
418 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0318 PM HAIL ANNA 40.40N 84.17W
07/26/2014 E2.50 INCH SHELBY OH PUBLIC

DISK SHAPED TENNIS BALL SIZE HAILSTONE SEEN IN FACEBOOK
PHOTO.
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Is a bow trying to get started on that eastern IL complex?  Do we have a cold pool anywhere to foster it?

 

Wondering the same thing.  I'm trying to figure out the severe warning over Paxton.  When it came out, at least on my GR radar there's  nothing there nor to the west, it was all south west of the warning box.  

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Svr T storm watch issued for central and southern IN and a chunk of se IL until 2 a.m. EDT.  Cloud tops could reach 60,000 feet as elevated storms in IL become surface based with potential for 75 mph winds, hail, and  QLCS tornadoes possible.

 

The line looks to be getting a little more organized as it crosses the IL/IN border. Like you said with slightly lower CINH over central and southern IN, it might be enough.  Especially south of I-70 as they got some decent boundary layer heating this afternoon.  That cloud deck burned us up here in north central IN.

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surprise

 


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  TORNADO WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN  842 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A    * TORNADO WARNING FOR...    NORTHWESTERN BARRON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...    EAST CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...    * UNTIL 930 PM CDT    * AT 837 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A    TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES EAST OF STRAIGHT LAKE WILDERNESS STATE    PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.      HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.      SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.      IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT             SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE             TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS             LIKELY.    * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL    POLK AND NORTHWESTERN BARRON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING    LOCATIONS...COMSTOCK...CUMBERLAND AND CUMBERLAND AIRPORT.  
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Perhaps a sign of things to come for tomorrow...

 

FWIW, there's no cloud debris across WI at this time.

 

 

I was looking at that IL/WI/western MI area as a potential sleeper for tomorrow.  Buoyancy isn't all that impressive in general so it's likely a marginal threat (at best) but deep layer wind fields are strong.

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I was looking at that IL/WI/western MI area as a potential sleeper for tomorrow.  Buoyancy isn't all that impressive in general so it's likely a marginal threat (at best) but deep layer wind fields are strong.

 

From what I'm seeing, as the jet core tracks just to the south, the wind field isn't all that impressive in Michigan. The max values I'm seeing are 30-40kts at 500mb, and that's near the Ohio/Indiana borders. Low level shear is really lacking, less than 10kts. 

 

That's really the only thing preventing a more impressive severe weather setup in Michigan, as the best PVA will be across Michigan for tomorrow. 

 

As far as IL/WI, dry air advection and wake subsidence will pose a problem, but nothing can be ruled out under that 500mb cold pool.

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