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T-Storms Part 2 : "North and West of the city!"


TalcottWx

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It needs a sequel tagline.

 

"Summer Thunderstorms 2: The Weakening"

"Summer Thunderstorms II: Stagnation"

"SUMMERSTORMS DEUX: OMELET DU FROMAGE"

 

Just some ideas. Hey, are there any thunderstorms on the horizon?

 

I don't think so. Gonna be one Hell of a read in this thread for the next week.

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Go south if you want severe.

The Northeast isn't half bad for severe in early summer, but with our climatological peak in the first third of July, we're certainly on the downswing. Although anytime in July is pretty good, the probabilities start dropping off quickly in August. That's not just for SNE spinners, but also for severe across the country as a whole. Aside from those fluke severe outbreaks in the fall as lingering heat clashes with a strengthening and dropping jet...

post-533-0-28383100-1405617114_thumb.gif

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For you, south means York.

lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic

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lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic

I'm somewhat surprised the probabilities aren't higher a bit into Maine, but maybe that's because of a lack of reports from a less densely populated area...

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lol, I think i would pick somewhere further then that if i had the interest for it, Coastal plain fails here most of the time, If anything i would go North up here into Central Maine, That is where their is a hell of a lot more action away from the atlantic

 

I agree but for whatever reason it seems like the NH Seacoast up through far S Coastal ME has had it's share of really good (by that I mean decent) severe in the last decade or so.

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I agree but for whatever reason it seems like the NH Seacoast up through far S Coastal ME has had it's share of really good (by that I mean decent) severe in the last decade or so.

 

True, But if you looked at ocean temps down their, They are considerably warmer, As well as their not affected as much by downsloping like i am here, My best chances are storms traveling NE with the winds out of the west or SW

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I'm somewhat surprised the probabilities aren't higher a bit into Maine, but maybe that's because of a lack of reports from a less densely populated area...

199.png

 

Well, That is a real possibility, Especially in Northern Maine, It is a vast area but not very populated, But marine influence plays a larger roll here, In those areas that are lightly highlighted, You have 4 or so of the largest cities in this state being Portland, Lewiston, Augusta and Bangor

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For you, south means York.

 

For me, south means one town to my north. ;)

However, in recent years NE Aroostook seems to have caught more than its share. Going back farther, one township, T16R6 (the twp immediately east of the town of Eagle Lake) has had at least 3 blowdown events involving 1,000s of cords, thus 10,000s of trees. The 1986 event flattened 600 acres before flipping trees into Square Lake, in 2005 blowdowns covered about 100 acres on T16R6 plus half that much on the town to the south, in a string of flat patches stretching about 8 miles, and last July it was 200 acres along the north shore of Eagle Lake, plus a confirmed tornado just to the west in town, where it damaged several houses on Route 11.

Last summer was quite active, with a multi-thousands cords blowdown near Chamberlain Lake/Baxter Park in July and another in the Oxbow area in September in addition to the tornado noted above.

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For me, south means one town to my north. ;)

However, in recent years NE Aroostook seems to have caught more than its share. Going back farther, one township, T16R6 (the twp immediately east of the town of Eagle Lake) has had at least 3 blowdown events involving 1,000s of cords, thus 10,000s of trees. The 1986 event flattened 600 acres before flipping trees into Square Lake, in 2005 blowdowns covered about 100 acres on T16R6 plus half that much on the town to the south, in a string of flat patches stretching about 8 miles, and last July it was 200 acres along the north shore of Eagle Lake, plus a confirmed tornado just to the west in town, where it damaged several houses on Route 11.

Last summer was quite active, with a multi-thousands cords blowdown near Chamberlain Lake/Baxter Park in July and another in the Oxbow area in September in addition to the tornado noted above.

Wish these blowdowns you speak of would happen down here

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Confirmed EF1 TOR

000NOUS41 KGYX 172024PNSGYXMEZ014-180030-PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME424 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINE...LOCATION...SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINEDATE...JULY 15 2014ESTIMATED TIME...652 TO 658 PMMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...800 YARDSPATH LENGTH...2.75 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...44.91066N/-69.40746WENDING LAT/LON...44.92828N/-69.35709* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY ME HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADONEAR SAINT ALBANS IN SOMERSET COUNTY MAINE ON JULY 15 2014.DAMAGE FROM THE TORNADO WAS OBSERVED FROM HIGH STREET SOUTH OFINDIAN POND TO MELODY LANE.  THE MOST INTENSE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVEDALONG CORINNA ROAD...HANSON DRIVE...AND WARNER LANE WHERE WINDSWERE ESTIMATED TO HAVE GUSTED BETWEEN 80 AND 90 MPH.  THE TORNADOTOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY 652 PM...THEN MOVED EAST NORTHEASTAT ABOUT 30 MPH.  THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR ABOUT FIVEAND A HALF MINUTES AND TRAVELED ABOUT 2.75 MILES. THE MAXIMUMPATH WIDTH WAS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 800 YARDS.THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON OUR WEBSITE ATWEATHER.GOV/GYX.FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOESINTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:EF0...WIND SPEEDS 65 TO 85 MPH.EF1...WIND SPEEDS 86 TO 110 MPH.EF2...WIND SPEEDS 111 TO 135 MPH.EF3...WIND SPEEDS 136 TO 165 MPH.EF4...WIND SPEEDS 166 TO 200 MPH.EF5...WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 200 MPH.$$JENSENIUS
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Friday doesn't look half bad for widespread convection. The GFS, in particular, holds back on convection for Thursday morning, potentially allowing a buildup of energy for the evening. Wind direction appears to be from the WNW, which, I believe, is far more favorable than the last event. Big questions remain, obvioulsly, and I'm still learning how to read models for convection, but it caught my eye.

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NNE has been the Tornado Capitol if New England

News this morning said the St.Albans tornado made it 114 confirmed in Maine since 1950, not quite 2 per year on avg (and recently it seems about twice that.) Nearly all have been EF0 or 1, and I'm not sure there's been anything as strong as EF3 during that timeframe.

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BTW, a UK version of an EML event occurring over the last couple of days. They are called Spanish plume events and basically act in a similar fashion as EML events do. Convection is mostly elevated and driven by strong dynamics from a s/w trough. PVA, WAA ,etc.

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=1900&STNM=03354

 

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=GIF%3ASKEWT&YEAR=2014&MONTH=07&FROM=1812&TO=1900&STNM=07110

 

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Still looking like an isold SVR event, especially NW of BOX. Not too outstanding though, at least to me.

How's it looking for Central NH.??  I see we are in the slight risk and the timing seems good.  Maybe the most severe day of the summer for C/NNE? or do you think not.  Haven't had much this summer in my neck of the woods.  One storm last week did some straight line wind damage in the town west of me.

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How's it looking for Central NH.??  I see we are in the slight risk and the timing seems good.  Maybe the most severe day of the summer for C/NNE? or do you think not.  Haven't had much this summer in my neck of the woods.  One storm last week did some straight line wind damage in the town west of me.

 

I think tomorrow looks decent for Lakes Region up through Central Maine. 

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