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July 8-10 2014 storms


yoda

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Rainbow and sunset made the day for sure. Gust front was good. I think I also got 700 pictures of nothing trying for the few strikes around.

 

Was good to see a solid squall line just wish it didn't peter a bit locally.

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One day we'll get those 70 mph straight line winds  ;)

I don't really care about the wind as much as structure and lightning. Timing was a bit off for a great lightning pic session either way.

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wtop is reporting that a child was killed at a camp in Carroll County by a falling tree.   The report says that 114 children were in a hillside pavilion, and as the storm approached,  they were moved to a nearby shelter, but the tree fell while they were en route.  I'm guessing that the strong outflow preceding the storm core led to the counselors to believe that they had more time to seek shelter than they really did.    Horribly tragic.   In a perfect world, I'd like to think that a camp responsible for that many kids would have a functioning weather radio and could have taken advantage of the long lead time today with the warnings, but I know that this isn't the reality.

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http://www.fredericknewspost.com/news/disasters_and_accidents/weather/trees-downed-thousands-without-power-after-strong-storm-hits-county/article_db8a5952-5e49-5a4f-8565-423f295bdf51.html

 

Several large Oak trees were uprooted and thrown about in Downtown Frederick yesterday. Found out also that our neighborhood, still under development, had some of the young trees ripped out of the ground. 

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2/5/5

 

.MID-ATLANTIC...
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK CAPPING AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE
REGION...DEEP SHEAR WILL ONLY BE MODEST AND SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS SPREADING TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOCALLY DMGG WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE LACK
OF STRONGER LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE GREATER SVR
POTENTIAL.

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2012 derecho > 2008 derecho > 2014 derecho

Today could still work. SPC noted shear is low which seems odd since it's about as good as we've seen all year.

Looks like from 800mb down the shear is mehh.

Favorable position for good lift as the area is in the right rear entrance region of the jet.

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2012 derecho > 2008 derecho > 2014 derecho

Today could still work. SPC noted shear is low which seems odd since it's about as good as we've seen all year.

 

Yeah, 14z mesoanalysis from SPC shows us having 35 to 45 kts effective shear and about 40kts bulk shear (0-6km).... and around 500 MLCAPE and 1000 SBCAPE

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Yeah, 14z mesoanalysis from SPC shows us having 35 to 45 kts effective shear and about 40kts bulk shear (0-6km).... and around 500 MLCAPE and 1000 SBCAPE

 

15z mesoanalysis from SPC shows us having 35 to 45 kts effective shear and about 40kts bulk shear (0-6km).... and around 500 MLCAPE and 1000-1500 SBCAPE... -3 to -4 LI's...

 

And here comes some sun :)

 

Also, FWIW, 12z NAM soundings are okay to decent

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