Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 they'll be quickly absorbed into a WAA wing That's fine as well, that would mean the line will be perking back up. Thankfully there are many ways to slice this one in a favorable direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yeah, as soon as I posted the line started to weaken but these individual cells ahead of it are looking very strong, I would rather have supercells anyways Boundary needs to retreat north though a little bit to help. I would watch those cells around the border for a little bit though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A little surprised to see that 30% wind area almost unchanged on the 1630z outlook. Magnitude of future severe chances behind this line looks questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric In NW Ohio Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 321 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 155 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN NORTHWEST OHIO LAKE ERIE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF FLINT MICHIGAN TO 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF TOLEDO OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && DISCUSSION...A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035. ...MEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A little surprised to see that 30% wind area almost unchanged on the 1630z outlook. Magnitude of future severe chances behind this line looks questionable. Not even questionable... More like nonexistent for most areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 232 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 330 PM EDT * AT 229 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ST. JOHNS TO 5 MILES NORTH OF DE WITT TO EDGEMONT PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... LAINGSBURG AROUND 245 PM EDT. CARLAND AND SHAFTSBURG AROUND 250 PM EDT. PERRY AND MORRICE AROUND 255 PM EDT. HENDERSON AND OWOSSO AROUND 300 PM EDT. CORUNNA AND BANCROFT AROUND 305 PM EDT. VERNON AND DURAND AROUND 310 PM EDT. THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS... PERRY... OWOSSO... NEW LOTHROP... MORRICE... LENNON... LAINGSBURG... HENDERSON... DURAND... CORUNNA... BYRON... BANCROFT... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Yep, I'm pretty sure things are stabilized for today. Comfortable afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 there is plenty of deep instability not that far south, we could easily recover into the evening for potential overnight action but it's not looking very likely atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Good footage of the Angus, Ontario EF2 tornado yesterday. Rated high end EF2 damaging over 100 homes along a 20km path with 2 injuries. Notice all the oblivious people in the neighbourhood. Blanket tornado warnings yesterday didn't detail any locations impacted, or locations of the storms, so I'm sure a lot of people weren't expecting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Got the darkest in Ann Arbor during the day that I've seen for some time. Like late dusk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 I'm in Rochester Hills right now, wall of black skies approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Rock solid storm albeit non severe. Lots of CG strikes, and a nice shelf cloud to boot passed overhead here at DTW. Top gust was 34kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Watch might be coming for Ohio. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1066NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0332 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...FAR E-CNTRL INDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 182032Z - 182200ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...ONGOING LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD/SEWDINTO CNTRL AND WRN OH WITH A SOME RESULTANT SVR THREAT POSSIBLEDOWNSTREAM OF WW 321.DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AWELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF TSTMS EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL LWR MI SWWD INTONE IND...MOVING EWD/SEWD AT 40 KT. TRENDS INDICATE THE STRONGESTPORTION OF THIS LINE...ROUGHLY FROM DFI NEWD TO JUST W OF VLL...WILLLIKELY CONTINUE EWD INTO ONTARIO. SRN PORTION OF THE LINE ISEXPECTED TO EXHIBIT A MORE SELY MOTION INTO THE INSTABILITY ACROSSE-CNTRL IND AND WRN OH. ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTSTHE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH WITH SOMEFORWARD-PROPAGATION POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT REGIONAL RADARIMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE OUTFLOW SURGING AHEAD OF THE SRNPORTION OF THE LINE...INTRODUCING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE SYSTEM/SABILITY OF MAINTAINING A DAMAGING WIND TREAT. TRENDS ACROSS THE AREAWILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW...MOSIER/MEAD.. 06/18/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A+ in the cloud to ground lightning department with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Nice strong storm along the outflow just raced through - no instruments here, but the wind on the front edge had to be pushing 60mph. My flagpole, which survived the 6/29/12 derecho, blew over. Temperature gradient is pretty impressive, 89F in Convoy, Ohio, 68F in Fort Wayne, about 30 miles west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 My little corner of the world is in outflow boundary hell. Wind was out of the West, then the North for about 15 minutes, now the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Several wind reports, as well as flooding, lightning strike reports in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, including Detroit, Fort Wayne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 severe thunderstorm watch- NE Ohio ---- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 325 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 455 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO LAKE ERIE * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 455 PM UNTIL 1100 PM EDT.---- DISCUSSION...A BOWING MCS FROM NEAR DETROIT TO TOLEDO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH SOME HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Where I'm at, we were on the very north edge of the line that went through FNT. Not much wind, but it did rain pretty good for a few minutes. The svr warning outline was just south of us. Sky is trying to clear to the north now. I see the watch is cancelled. The P&C grid for me still says "Severe Thunderstorms" 100% on it, I expect it will be changed before long. It would be nice if it cleared up and those showers out GRR way dissolve, so we can maybe do some more staining on our deck tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Rock solid storm albeit non severe. Lots of CG strikes, and a nice shelf cloud to boot passed overhead here at DTW. Top gust was 34kts. Two reports of fires in SEMI due to lightning, not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Looks like some storms have fired near DBQ trailing southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 A new line unzipping on far NW IL looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Just started to thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Storm west of Freeport now warned with tops to 50kft and nice VIL core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Storm west of Freeport now warned with tops to 50kft and nice VIL core Odd warning box based on storm motion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 Warnings just to my west now. Local news was showing lots of lightning with the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Easily the nicest shelf cloud and bow echo the Detroit area has seen possibly in a couple seasons. Tons of CTG lightning too. Decent consolation prize for not seeing severe-criteria storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 18, 2014 Author Share Posted June 18, 2014 After 2 or 3 MD's for my area, they finally issue a watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 326NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK700 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFSOUTHEASTERN INDIANAEXTREME NORTHERN KENTUCKYSOUTHERN OHIOWESTERN PENNSYLVANIAEXTREME NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 700 PMUNTIL 200 AM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLETHE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST SOUTHWESTOF CINCINNATI OHIO TO 55 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF FRANKLINPENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 321...WW 322...WW323...WW 324...WW 325...DISCUSSION...MARGINALLY WELL-ORGANIZED BAND OF TSTMS WITHMESOBETA-SCALE COLD POOLING SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WWAREA INTO FAVORABLE MOISTURE/THERMAL FIELDS WITH FORCED ASCENT ALONGASSOCIATED GUST FRONT. SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION IS PSBL BEFORENOCTURNAL/DIABATIC COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY DESTABILIZES FOREGOING WARMSECTOR. DAMAGING GUSTS AND OCNL LARGE HAIL ARE PRIMARY THREATS.REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 FOR MORE INITIAL DETAILS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 Alek could be seeing some quarters soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2014 Share Posted June 18, 2014 yeah, nice storm downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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