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Spring/ Summer 2014 Convection Discussion


weatherwiz

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Noisy TS at my place, took out power for a couple hours (4-6 PM), and given the modest winds I'm guessing lightning damage. Only had 0.2" in the gauge when I got home at 5 (+RA on Mile Hill - 100 yd vis, prob. 3-4"/hr rate, lots of brown streamers from unpaved driveways), probably another 0.2-0.3" since, looks like maybe half an inch worth of echoes upstream.

Heard on today's news that Rumford area had places getting 4" in an hour yesterday, blowing out several roads. One interview was of a man standing in a yard full of melon-sized rocks and saying, "I just mowed this a couple days ago."

Another steamer here, though by regional temps I think there's more area under the clouds. Here, naso much.

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mcd1262.gif

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1230 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NJ...NY...CT...MA...VT...NH   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY    VALID 031730Z - 032000Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT   SUMMARY...THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH LATE   AFTERNOON FROM THE DELAWARE AND HUDSON VALLEYS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS   THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE   LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.   DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD FROM   NORTHEAST NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON   ACCOMPANIED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE   TROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. IN   ADDITION TO LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT AND NEAR WEAK FRONTAL   WAVES... DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL AID   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AMIDST A WEAKLY   CAPPED AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE   ORDER OF 30-50KT WILL FAVOR A FEW SUSTAINED ROTATING   UPDRAFTS/SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HAIL   AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED/BRIEF   TORNADO. WITH TIME...STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO LINE SEGMENTS   NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT WITH POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS   ACCOMPANYING AN EASTWARD-MOVING SQUALL LINE FROM NRN NJ/ERN NY INTO   WRN NEW ENGLAND BY EVENING.   ..CARBIN/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2014
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Just  had a  nice little  cell  pop  up over me. Ran to Napa  and it  was  getting  dark.  When  I got  back the  sky  opened  up  for a min.  I  hope  we get   something  good as Middletown  already  cancelled the  fireworks  tonight and it's looking  like  the next   good  day  for the  river   is  saturday

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There was definitely a nice looking updraft near Southampton, MA... that's been a favored location over the years too. 

Radar shows some really nice wet hail growth up to -20c with that thing for a couple volume scans. Probably dropped some big hail. 

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I was just south of the Holyoke range watching a clear lowering coincident with a shear signature visible for multiple scans tracking down Rt. 202 nearby.  Unfortunately I got into the rain shield which lowered vis a lot, but if there is any wind damage out of this I'd expect it through Granby and South Hadley, into Belchertown.  Just south of 202.    No hail here which surprised me.  Like Ryan said, hail just NW of Springfield seems very likely.

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* AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR EXETER...

  MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

  GREENLAND AND GREAT BAY NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE BY 425 PM EDT...

  RYE BY 430 PM EDT...

  PORTSMOUTH AND KITTERY BY 435 PM EDT...

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Difference today from yesterday - Towering CU. Unmistakable tropical blue cobalt. Echo's to the North and West, typical. About to be outflowed to death. Actually getting used to the high Td and Temps.

yes. We were more unstable then yesterday but nothing different with the winds. We're screwed in these setups.
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