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The 6-10 day forecast is hinting at another severe weather sequence from the southern Plains into the Southeast US. Just like last time the models seem to be trending from a Plains highlight to a Dixie Alley highlight. South severe is still 8-10 days away so uncertainty is high. Though one cannot pinpoint details or target areas, in May one can assume severe weather will verify at least 2-3 days out of the 6-10 day period.

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Some of the GFS ensembles at 12Z suggest that the Arklamiss and perhaps Dixie Alley (including the TN Valley) would be at risk around May 9, especially if the trends in the ECMWF toward a more progressive (GFS-type) solution continue. That certainly has been the trend with the past few systems.

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Some of the GFS ensembles at 12Z suggest that the Arklamiss and perhaps Dixie Alley (including the TN Valley) would be at risk around May 9, especially if the trends in the ECMWF toward a more progressive (GFS-type) solution continue. That certainly has been the trend with the past few systems.

The 00Z GFS abandons the idea of a cutoff low over the Desert SW and brings a consolidated, more negatively-tilted trough over the Plains on May 8, though still 12 hours slower than the ECMWF. What's interesting is the very strong LLJ projected to strengthen after sundown over a broad swath of the Ozarks and lower MS Valley, coupled with ample low-level moisture and directional shear. Such a set-up would potentially favor damaging winds and/or an attendent (nocturnal?) tornado risk over part of Dixie Alley overnight May 8-9. But timing differences still remain to be worked out, so nothing is really clear yet, other than that the ceiling for at least a localized (or potentially a more significant) severe threat in the TN Valley region is definitely on the table.

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Developing drought in NE TN. Lakes are low...bone dry ground. When puffs of dust rise up due to water hitting the ground(while watering the garden) it is really dry. Things could change, but missing that last chance at significant rain has been tough.

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Slight in the Mid South today. Probably just wind and hail. Hi-res NAM has supercells in deep southern Illinois but both upper level and low level jets are displaced. Delta storm mode is in question. HRRR occasionally introduces SUPs but mainly clusters Delta. Might be a good day to stay home and watch the NFL draft some more...

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Developing drought in NE TN. Lakes are low...bone dry ground. When puffs of dust rise up due to water hitting the ground(while watering the garden) it is really dry. Things could change, but missing that last chance at significant rain has been tough.

Looks like the next week will be better for East TN. At least closer to normal.

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AY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2014

   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
   TO MS/AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
   AND OHIO VALLEYS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
   TOWARDS CONSISTENT ECMWF RUNS WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
   OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
   SPEED MAX BECOMING CENTERED INVOF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEYS WED
   NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE INDUCED ALONG A
   FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO OH VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF
   THIS FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST.

   ...OH VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   A PLUME OF MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BE PREVALENT FROM
   THE CNTRL GULF COAST N/NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG
   AND W OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT FROM THE MID-SOUTH
   TO E TX. POCKETS OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD STILL OCCUR
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY AND YIELD A WEAK TO MODESTLY BUOYANT AIR
   MASS DESPITE POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
   SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD TSTMS FORMING DURING
   THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BULK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LAG
   THE FRONT GIVEN SUCH A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION. BUT WITH CYCLOGENESIS
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT LOW TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST
   FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND PROBABLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. THIS
   SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

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Day 2 update is similar. Looks conditional with a lot of other convection going on in competition with anything trying to go severe. If rain breaks up enough in Kentucky where winds will be more backed, a 30% (overall) would be prudent. However they break it down for Day 1 it'll still be slight. Prefrontal wind shift is noted in Alabama Wed afternoon but low level wind fields are weak. Upper jet timing will be key to all of the above, but I'm not excited. Best news is needed rain is coming to the Valley.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 153
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHERN ALABAMA
     FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
     700 PM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHEAST OF MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF
   NASHVILLE TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS/NRN AL/MIDDLE TN AND VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

   VALID 141556Z - 141800Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASING RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS SUGGESTS WW ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIKELY THROUGH NOON.

   DISCUSSION...WV LOOP ACROSS THE MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF-COAST REGION
   SHOWS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ATTM...AHEAD OF A VORT MAX NOW
   CROSSING THE NERN TX/ERN OK VICINITY.  WHILE CLOUD COVER --
   ESPECIALLY INTO MS/AL -- IS LIMITING HEATING TO SOME
   DEGREE...DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
   SUPPORT A CONTINUED DIURNAL INCREASE IN CAPE /ATTM INTO THE 1000 TO
   1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SURFACE-BASED PARCELS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES/.

   WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS...AND
   AREA VWPS HINTING AT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FLOW MAGNITUDE ABOVE 900
   MB -- CONFIRMING A STRENGTHENING TREND IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PER
   12Z MODEL FORECASTS -- THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH TIME.  AS THE
   OBSERVED/GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION /PER LATEST RADAR IMAGERY/
   CONTINUES...SEVERE RISK -- INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 154
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
     NORTHEAST TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM
     UNTIL 800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BOWLING
   GREEN KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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Good day to go core punching. CAPE is not high enough for damaging hail, but penny hail would be a cheap thrill. Do not try it unless you are an experienced storm chaser. Things can change quickly. Just busted a storm chase in the Plains over the weekend so I'm suffering severe wx withdrawal. Clock is about to run out for Plains season; only tear drop positive tilt troughs through Day 15. Figure I'll go core punching after work today here in scenic Tenn. :drunk:

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Looks like cape is pushing 2000+ j/kg with a tad bit of EHI finally showing up in the area discussed (value:1).  Low level shear values are also currently between 20-25 in the watch area.

 

ww0154_overview_big_wou.gif

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Flood Watches for just about everyone but the Tri-Cities and SWVA. Down-sloping wins again.

yrereguj.jpg

The flood watch was unwarranted. This event underperformed pretty badly. Didn't even get an inch yet at KCHA.

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Saw some sleet mixing in with the rain while at work in Elizabethton just a few minutes ago. Crazy to think it was just in the 80s...

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On Tuesday it was 89 here in Kingsport....Now, check this out.   50 in Kingsport right now and you can see your breath.  Should make the low 40s and upper 30s tonight. 

 

post-769-0-17396300-1400285546_thumb.jpg

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Thursday may include both large hail and straight winds in the Tennessee Valley. Unidirectional flow pretty much takes tornadoes off the table; however, that flow is strong enough for some straight line winds. Early in the evolution of the storms some may be discrete, and candidates for large hail. If CAPE gets high enough it could be very large hail. Again, I'm not looking for tornadoes here.

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Hoping for at least a half inch of rain next few days. If we can't get a quarter from that bowling ball in Texas I'll really start losing faith in summer precip. If all goes well, looks like a half to three quarters this week in East Tenn. Need some outdoor air cleaning too. Mid South should do much better up around an inch of rain. At least somebody might achieve normal precipitation this week.

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Hoping for at least a half inch of rain next few days. If we can't get a quarter from that bowling ball in Texas I'll really start losing faith in summer precip. If all goes well, looks like a half to three quarters this week in East Tenn. Need some outdoor air cleaning too. Mid South should do much better up around an inch of rain. At least somebody might achieve normal precipitation this week.

 

Severe thunderstorm rolling into Kingsport as I type.  Thank goodness for the rain.  I fish quite a bit, and I can say the rivers are really low - even the generated ones are low when no generation is present.  Basically, the feeder streams are low and it seems that it is causing the tailwaters to be very, very clear.  Makes fishing tough.  Heard the Clinch was really low over the weekend in Clinton.  We need some rain.  I would think that eventually El Nino would override this dry pattern. 

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Severe thunderstorm rolling into Kingsport as I type.  Thank goodness for the rain.  I fish quite a bit, and I can say the rivers are really low - even the generated ones are low when no generation is present.  Basically, the feeder streams are low and it seems that it is causing the tailwaters to be very, very clear.  Makes fishing tough.  Heard the Clinch was really low over the weekend in Clinton.  We need some rain.  I would think that eventually El Nino would override this dry pattern. 

That was one heck of a storm. I've not seen the wind blow like that in a while. Little branches are down everywhere.

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Euro and the EPS 9-10 days out is showing some 850mb winds at 50-55 kts coming though the Valley.This is the most excitement we've seen in weeks.The GFS continues to want to bring a tropical system in the eastern GOM. and isn't showing our severe potential threat right now.

 

Maybe Jeff can change his thread to May and June ?

 

Edit :Nothing there on last nights 0Z

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The severe warned storm did some damage in my neighborhood yesterday afternoon...My neighbor lost some huge branches off of three trees and a tree in the very front of the neighborhood was mangled and almost uprooted also. In addition, it seemed like there was some good hail too as there were leaves down everywhere. Fortunately, it missed my house.

post-1670-0-61702800-1401451474_thumb.jp

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CFSV2 shows some severe potential for the Valley around the 5-6 time frame.Slow moving boundary dropping down from the OV.Some 0-6 shear is around 40 kts in our NW parts during this time,with some capes of 3k+ in the SW portions on the 18z GFS.SPC mentions us last night so we'll see.

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