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AY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH AND TN RIVER
   VALLEYS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO AND
   TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...OH/TN VALLEYS...
   EARLY-MID AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
   CONTINUED TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY...AND AT 19Z WAS
   LOCATED IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA.  A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM
   THIS LOW HAD MOVED INTO SWRN OH TO WV...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
   HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SWD...WITH THE 19Z POSITION OF THIS
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM SRN IND/IL TO SOUTH OF STL IN MO.
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR HAS BECOME MODERATELY-STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF RICH MOISTURE /PW
   VALUES EXCEEDING 1.6 INCH AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND ERN EXTENT OF
   STEEP LAPSE RATES.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION
   CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGESTING ONE OR MORE FORWARD
   PROPAGATING MCS STRUCTURES MOVING SEWD ACROSS WRN-CENTRAL KY INTO
   MUCH OF TN...THE 30 PERCENT SEVERE WIND PROBABILITY HAS BEEN
   EXPANDED SOME...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SIGNIFICANT WINDS
   SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING.  TORNADO PROBABILITY
   HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO SERN MO GIVEN GOOD
   HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WITH VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES.

   ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE SLIGHT RISK AND ATTENDANT SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES HAS BEEN MADE ACROSS SERN WY TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND
   THREATS INTO THIS AREA.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 222
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   800 PM EDT WED JUN 4 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
     EASTERN TENNESSEE
     WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
     SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM
     UNTIL 300 AM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF WHITE
   SULPHUR SPRINGS WEST VIRGINIA TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOT
   SPRINGS NORTH CAROLINA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
   SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
     TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 223
     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
     725 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014
    
     TORNADO WATCH 223 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 AM CDT FOR THE
      FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
    
     ARC021-055-121-050800-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/
    
     AR
     .    ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     CLAY                 GREENE              RANDOLPH           
    
    
     ILC003-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-199-
     050800-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/
    
     IL
     .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     ALEXANDER            FRANKLIN            GALLATIN           
     HAMILTON             HARDIN              JACKSON            
     JEFFERSON            JOHNSON             MASSAC             
     PERRY                POPE                PULASKI            
     SALINE               UNION               WILLIAMSON         
    
    
     KYC001-003-005-007-009-017-021-031-033-035-039-045-047-049-053-
     055-057-061-067-073-075-079-083-085-087-097-099-103-105-107-113-
     123-137-139-141-143-145-149-151-155-157-167-169-171-177-179-181-
     183-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-225-227-229-233-239-
     050800-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/
    
     KY
     .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     ADAIR                ALLEN               ANDERSON           
     BALLARD              BARREN              BOURBON            
     BOYLE                BUTLER              CALDWELL           
     CALLOWAY             CARLISLE            CASEY              
     CHRISTIAN            CLARK               CLINTON            
     CRITTENDEN           CUMBERLAND          EDMONSON           
     FAYETTE              FRANKLIN            FULTON             
     GARRARD              GRAVES              GRAYSON            
     GREEN                HARRISON            HART               
     HENRY                HICKMAN             HOPKINS            
     JESSAMINE            LARUE               LINCOLN            
     LIVINGSTON           LOGAN               LYON               
     MADISON              MARION              MARSHALL           
     MCCRACKEN            MCLEAN              MERCER             
     METCALFE             MONROE              MUHLENBERG         
     NELSON               NICHOLAS            OHIO               
     RUSSELL              SCOTT               SHELBY             
     SIMPSON              SPENCER             TAYLOR             
     TODD                 TRIGG               UNION              
     WARREN               WASHINGTON          WEBSTER            
     WOODFORD            
    
    
     MOC017-023-031-035-065-069-091-093-123-133-143-149-155-157-179-
     181-201-203-207-215-223-229-050800-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/
    
     MO
     .    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BOLLINGER            BUTLER              CAPE GIRARDEAU     
     CARTER               DENT                DUNKLIN            
     HOWELL               IRON                MADISON            
     MISSISSIPPI          NEW MADRID          OREGON             
     PEMISCOT             PERRY               REYNOLDS           
     RIPLEY               SCOTT               SHANNON            
     STODDARD             TEXAS               WAYNE              
     WRIGHT              
    
    
     TNC005-015-017-021-027-035-037-041-043-045-049-053-079-081-083-
     085-087-095-111-125-131-133-137-141-147-149-159-161-165-169-183-
     185-187-189-050800-
     /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0223.140605T0025Z-140605T0800Z/
    
     TN
     .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
    
     BENTON               CANNON              CARROLL            
     CHEATHAM             CLAY                CUMBERLAND         
     DAVIDSON             DE KALB             DICKSON            
     DYER                 FENTRESS            GIBSON             
     HENRY                HICKMAN             HOUSTON            
     HUMPHREYS            JACKSON             LAKE               
     MACON                MONTGOMERY          OBION              
     OVERTON              PICKETT             PUTNAM             
     ROBERTSON            RUTHERFORD          SMITH              
     STEWART              SUMNER              TROUSDALE          
     WEAKLEY              WHITE               WILLIAMSON         
     WILSON

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 223
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   725 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
     WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
     SOUTHERN MISSOURI
     NORTHERN TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 725 PM
     UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
   LEONARD WOOD MISSOURI TO 55 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CROSSVILLE
   TENNESSEE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

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I was playing golf this evening and I'm not sure if the cloud I saw was a wall cloud or just a shelf cloud. This structure was west of the main rain shaft as the storm was moving southeast. The whole base was rotating very slightly. As it passed over a lot of scud clouds formed making it look even more ominous.

Any ideas as to which type of cloud this was? The pictures from my iPhone don't really do it justice.

Anyway the storms this afternoon and evening have been more discrete than just forming into a MCS as Morristown and other models were showing.

aqy9e9e3.jpg

ebunytug.jpg

egamyru7.jpg

Afterwards the storm left a beautiful rainbow:

y9yvaty9.jpg

nujebu2y.jpg

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I was playing golf this evening and I'm not sure if the cloud I saw was a wall cloud or just a shelf cloud. This structure was west of the main rain shaft as the storm was moving southeast. The whole base was rotating very slightly. As it passed over a lot of scud clouds formed making it look even more ominous.

Any ideas as to which type of cloud this was? The pictures from my iPhone don't really do it justice.

Anyway the storms this afternoon and evening have been more discrete than just forming into a MCS as Morristown and other models were showing. Afterwards the storm left a beautiful rainbow...

Post on MRX's FB page. They are pretty good at responding.

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Post on MRX's FB page. They are pretty good at responding.

 

I sent email WCYB an email and they said it did resemble a wall cloud and Morristown said that it was a hint of a wall cloud but it was hard to tell. They said if nothing else it was a rain-free base and indicated a inflow/updraft location. Very cool nonetheless. Meanwhile if the line of storms in West KY misses us another line of storms is forming further north which may hit us in the early morning hours. The threat is not over with yet.

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I made a more detailed post in the Ohio Valley sub-forum, but I was positioned right in front of that cell near Morton's Gap and I can vouch for a rotating wall cloud. Whatever it was became rain-wrapped, but I wouldn't rule out it being a weak tornado at one point. Not a good area to chase or observe with such a high density of trees.

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Day 3 see text valid on Monday for the Mid South will become a slight risk tomorrow. If you believe the NAM/Euro it'll be a small MDT risk by Monday. We'll see what GFS does today. Unseasonably strong short-wave to eject from Texas into the Mid South on Monday. OFB will be in place ahead of any pre-frontal trough. I don't expect much trouble in eastern Tennessee; however, looks like a strong/severe storms day farther west in the heart of the Mid South and/or Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday.

 

Sorry I was off the board a lot for that great action June 4. I was on my way back from the Plains. We saw CG right in front of us down in deep south Illinois. It hit right next to the road. Smoldering hole left in some guy's yard. Did not wanna take pix but it was pretty wild. When we first approached it looked like when someone burns leaves. However, no leaf pile, raining very hard, and brown/black smoldering depression in grass. No tornado June 4, but that lightning strike was beyond incredible. Cheers!

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We like to welcome visitors with good storms! Saturday afternoon was my daughter's second birthday party so I was out of touch after my morning post. That little surprise was a classic outflow boundary sleeper set-up. Jet stream energy was meager but there was plenty down around 500 mb. Plus the jet stream was enough back where it initiated along the Mississippi River. Finally low level turning was enhanced on the outflow boundary. Saturday rocked!

 

I still think Monday will go; and, Saturday was a kind of hint to be on the lookout. NAM wants to do bows/segments, but it has been stuck in that mode for a while. Perhaps summer climo? However we see how things want to start out as supercells as May type upper systems come through in June. Monday turning and speed shear with height will be excellent from surface to 500 mb; and, I expect plenty of outflow boundaries from weekend festivities. Only issue is veer-back up toward 200 mb along with lighter winds. OK/AR may be bogged down in previous convection issues. Personally I expect an outflow boundary to go, well east of that mess, in the Delta on Monday, tracking into the rest of the Mid South. June boom continues..

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I made a more detailed post in the Ohio Valley sub-forum, but I was positioned right in front of that cell near Morton's Gap and I can vouch for a rotating wall cloud. Whatever it was became rain-wrapped, but I wouldn't rule out it being a weak tornado at one point. Not a good area to chase or observe with such a high density of trees.

That is crazy. Glad you made it out in one piece! Thanks for stopping by.

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Just about time to rock and roll in Memphis and West Tenn. Severe bow echo coming out of Ark. Book-end of line on radar is appropriately warned tornado in east-central Ark. Outflow boundary remains in/near Memphis. OFB will help to focus energy and keep the line of storms quite intense. Should be mainly very high straight line winds; but, one might catch a brief spin-up in the Memphis metro and West Tenn. Be safe!

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TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

TORNADO WATCH 271 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TNC005-017-021-023-033-037-039-043-045-047-053-055-069-071-075-
077-079-081-083-085-095-097-099-101-109-113-117-119-125-131-135-
147-161-167-181-183-187-100600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0271.140609T2235Z-140610T0600Z/

TN
.    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON               CARROLL             CHEATHAM
CHESTER              CROCKETT            DAVIDSON
DECATUR              DICKSON             DYER
FAYETTE              GIBSON              GILES
HARDEMAN             HARDIN              HAYWOOD
HENDERSON            HENRY               HICKMAN
HOUSTON              HUMPHREYS           LAKE
LAUDERDALE           LAWRENCE            LEWIS
MADISON              MARSHALL            MAURY
MCNAIRY              MONTGOMERY          OBION
PERRY                ROBERTSON           STEWART
TIPTON               WAYNE               WEAKLEY

WILLIAMSON

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 271
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   535 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     NORTHWEST ALABAMA
     NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
     WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

   * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 535 PM
     UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
     ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 80 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   NASHVILLE TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

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Nearly east-west outflow OFB noted in West Tenn. Cells along it are starting to rotate. I'd have gone 50/20 or even 60/20 on the TOR probs. Oh but the high-res models have been choking; and, as the HRRR goes so the SPC goes. These models are suffering climatology bias, trying to depict a summer pattern with a spring strength short-wave.

 

Mississippi cells are suspect too, but they don't have the low level turning of an OFB to work with; plus, not quite as much upstairs. That said, CAPE is high in Miss. Otherwise we have the big red bow behind all of the supercells. Will deal with tomorrow after morning OFBs become established mid-morning.

 

For now, today would have been a good day to visit Memphis and chase east back toward home. If you liked Saturday, EF-1 tornado confirmed by both PAH/MEM, you're gonna love today!

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