May, June and July Pattern Discussion

[John1122]

66 for the high yesterday with the rain made it feel more like October 18th instead of July 18th. My A/C has been off since Tuesday.

[jaxjagman]

I'm really liking next Sat,the GFS is having problems of to where to place the ridge around the rockies next weekend.The 12zEuro today is showing the capes in the Mid Valley in the 4k area and showing the mid level shear around 30 kts,pw's around 1.8-2" next Sat

[nrgjeff]

Looks like Northwest Tennessee just had some fun with organized strong thunderstorms. Any good storm reports there?

[jaxjagman]

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY
   EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
   POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND EXTENDING
   EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE
   ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN INDIANA...OHIO...WEST VIRGINA AND
   TENNESSEE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG SUMMERTIME UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT STRETCHING FROM THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
   CHARACTERIZED BY 60 TO 80 KT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL MOVE
   INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 00Z. BY LATE AFTERNOON...LOW PRESSURE WILL
   SETTLE OVER LOWER MI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM INDIANA
   INTO SRN MO.

   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST
   WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.

   ...OH/TN VALLEYS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   A SEVERE MCS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS SRN
   OH...NRN KY AND WV SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE EWD
   ACROSS WV AND INTO VA...BUT WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN FROM ITS EARLIER
   INTENSITY. STILL...A WIND/HAIL THREAT WOULD BE PRESENT ACROSS VA AND
   THE DELMARVA...AIDED BY STRONG MEAN WLY FLOW ALOFT.

   BEHIND THE MORNING ACTIVITY...HEATING AND MOISTENING WILL OCCUR
   BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY.
   CONDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE AREA
   OWING TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF SAID THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50 KT. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR TO BE LARGELY
   STRAIGHT-LINE BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE MAXIMIZED ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS...WITH SRH FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
   ACROSS SRN OH...ERN KY...AND WV. A STRONG TORNADO IS CONDITIONALLY
   POSSIBLE NEAR SAID OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

   AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR FIRST ALONG
   THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT...FROM NRN INDIANA INTO NRN OH...AND
   EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN NY. STORMS SHOULD THEN FILL IN SWWD AROUND
   00Z ACROSS KY. SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO WITH THE MOST DEVIANTLY-MOVING
   CELLS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR ANY PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.

   SOME CELL MERGERS MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS TN AND FAR WRN VA BY EVENING.

[nrgjeff]

Day 3 seems aggressive, but we do have an unseasonably strong trough digging all the way through the Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley. Is this the last of spring or a very early first fall setup?

 

Speed shear is strong and thermodynamics will be supportive. SPC notes the veered off 850 winds. Surface winds will indeed depend on boundaries; otherwise, also veered. Lots of morning rain forecast Sunday. I'm really surprised SPC hatched it. Perhaps they are banking on a distinct break in precip. Appears a lead short-wave goes into the Mid Atlantic with a time of subsidence and clearing behind. Then the second wave is forecast to slam into the Valleys at peak heating. Boom!

 

Normally this time of year one looks for very high straight line winds. This set-up appears to introduce more outflow boundaries than one would otherwise expect in July. Normally in mid-summer it is either rainout or cap. Sunday we have that multiple wave scenario, with left over outflow, that does introduce more tornado potential. It is over horrible chase terrain though - so close, yet so not going...

[Windspeed]

Jeff, thanks for the updates. Yeah, we're used to severe thunderstorms in July, but not with 50 kts of low level shear. The second short wave is starting to look a little disconserting for late Sunday afternoon-evening. Lexington and ERN KY might have the best ingredients for some stong tornadoes. I'm not really expecting those cells to remain discrete by the time they reach my neck of the woods. I expect cell mergering before a line or several lines blast through E TN/SWV and the Holston River valley, though we could see a tornado and we'll probably be under a Tornado Watch. We're going to experience some pretty high gusts and wind damage out of those lines, even if the tornadic threat remains greater to our north. This is definitely a rare setup for July. Such wind shear and instability is going to make for rough Sunday evening.

[jaxjagman]

The NAM bumped the helicity to 434 tomorrow afternoon in parts of the eastern valley,wouldn't be shocked if that moderate risk tomorrow is extended that way on the update by the SPC this afternoon,.500mb winds are now 50-60 kts

[jaxjagman]

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OH...NE KY AND
   WV...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
   VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...PA...NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
   OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH MAINLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
   SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

   ...OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS A WELL-DEFINED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET
   MOVES OVER THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A
   LOW WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS A
   COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THUNDERSTORMS
   MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS SFC TEMPS
   WARM AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   OH VALLEY. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE FORECAST TO ORGANIZE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS EXPANDING CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE APPROACHING
   UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET ALONG WITH MODERATE
   TO STRONG INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY PERSISTING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FOR HUNTINGTON
   AND CHARLESTON WV AT 21Z/MON SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR
   PROFILES. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH
   MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
   ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE
   WITH SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
   EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE
   MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE STRONG SHEAR
   PROFILES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DISCRETE CELLS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   LIKELY EVEN AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM STORM
   RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 300 TO 400 M2/S2 SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO BE WHERE THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN OH...ERN
   KY AND WV. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
   DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. ANY STORM THAT CAN ROTATE WILL ALSO BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO
   IMPACT THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS MD AND PA DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC/PA/NJ/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
   LAKES AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
   SUNDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM SRN
   NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING SSWWD INTO MD AND VA. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE
   TROUGH SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
   DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO
   INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL
   STORM CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST PLAINS.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE SFC TROUGH FOR WASHINGTON DC AND NEW
   YORK CITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG
   RANGE WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE
   STRONGER MULTICELLS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CELL THAT
   CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CAN NOT BE
   RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...SE AZ...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   SUNDAY WITH EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
   ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL AZ BY WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY
   SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHOENIX AZ AT 21Z/SUN SHOW
   SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS NEAR 40 DEGREES F. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELLS MAKING A
   MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/26/2014

[Windspeed]

Looks pretty ominous for ERN KY. How often do you see Tor Sig parameters above 50 this far south in freaking July? Not unless there's a tropical cyclone name attached to it. The upper Cumberland will likely see discrete cells form with large hail and damaging winds. Though I still think the more violent stuff will remain just to the north of the eastern Valley, likely merging into a line/bow/derecho before impacting my neck of the woods. Really anxious to see if the 4k NAM creeps the exit region any further south this evening. Going to be an interesting event to watch. Better make sure any loose stuff outside is tied down, put inside, or you'll be collecting what's left off your neighbor's property.

[jaxjagman]

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

If the initial MCS doesn't pan out this evening across the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valley, we may not have any much in the way of cloud debris/showers scattered across the upper Tennessee Valley in on Sunday morning. SPC has already dropped the MOD threat for the upper MS Valley-Ohio Valley for tonite. Less cloud cover in the morning could make for even greater instability by the time initiation occurs on Sunday afternoon. With such high dew points and cold air aloft, things are going to be rocking anyway.

[jaxjagman]

...DYNAMIC UPPER LOW MIGRATING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER MID-ATLANTIC...
...STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE...

FINAL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A POWERFUL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH 28/
1200Z IS REASONABLE WHICH IS IMPROVED OVER THE SPREAD SEEN IN THE
GUIDANCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH ALL OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
IN...THE SPREAD HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.
THIS PRIMARILY HAS TO DO WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK AS THE 12Z
CMC/UKMET/GEFS MEAN RACE AHEAD OF THE OTHER MODELS. THE 12Z GFS
SEEMS TO FOLLOW THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE/09Z SREF MEANS MOST CLOSELY
AS OTHER GUIDANCE DIVERGE FROM THIS IDEA. WILL MAINTAIN THE 12Z
GFS FROM THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE BUT LOWER THE CONFIDENCE AS
THE UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO HAVE GROWN SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.

[Windspeed]

A MCS has really taken off over SRN IL and SRN IN and will push through Kentucky later tonite and eventually E TN before dawn. Could be some wind, though I suspect line will weaken somewhat before it reaches the TN Valley. May be some lingering showers and a cloud deck after sunrise for the upper TN Valley though. Will have to see how quickly this stuff burns off by the afternoon before the second wave of energy can go boom.

[jaxjagman]

looks like the NAM has shifted the severe threat south and east looking at the hodograph,showalter is now -8.3,500mb winds at 55 kts and capes over 3,500 for Nashville

 

Edit:Actually starting to see something on the simulated radar for once also 

[jaxjagman]

Still looks better for the N/east Valley,500 mb winds are close to 60 kts,we dont see this in late July very often

[Windspeed]

I am curious if the NPC will extend the moderate risk and sig hatch a little further south and west tomorrow. The 4km nam is keeping supercells discrete much further south, arriving later in the evening, and coinciding with the highest helicity values and 60 kts shear. This is primarily over SE KY, the upper plateau of TN, NE TN and SW VA.

[jaxjagman]

I am curious if the NPC will extend the moderate risk and sig hatch a little further south and west tomorrow. The 4km nam is keeping supercells discrete much further south, arriving later in the evening, and coinciding with the highest helicity values and 60 kts shear. This is primarily over SE KY, the upper plateau of TN, NE TN and SW VA.

Not really sure,the GFS looks to slow and the NAM looks to aggressive,but the NAM looks more right,right now

[jaxjagman]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO
   WESTERN/CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
   AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
   INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION INTO PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  SWATHS OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
   OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...WHERE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MUCH AS HAS BEEN INDICATE BY THE MODELS...AMPLIFICATION APPEARS
   UNDERWAY WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN.  AS SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
   AND ROCKIES...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE
   BLOCKING HIGH OVER NORTHERN CANADA...IS CURRENTLY TURNING SOUTHEAST
   OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS
   FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
   NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX.  AS THIS
   OCCURS...SEASONABLY STRONG /50-70 KT/ CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /700-500 MB/ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
   VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  AND AN INITIAL
   SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT LIKELY WILL SURGE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
   OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS BY 12Z MONDAY.

   WITH MOISTURE SEASONABLY HIGH BENEATH THE REMNANTS OF ELEVATED MIXED
   LAYER AIR STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
   A LARGE PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY...SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   TODAY.  THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR. 

   OTHERWISE...LINGERING MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   PLATEAU/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND
   EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
   PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY TODAY.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
   PROBABLE IN THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
   NEAR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

   ...OHIO VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
   REGION...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH STILL
   MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRIOR TO
   DAYBREAK...PROVIDE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXTENT AND MODE OF THE
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TODAY.  THE WEAKENING LEAD CONVECTION
   APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE
   SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MONSOONAL REGIME.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL
   AREAS BY MIDDAY...WHERE ASSOCIATED FORCING MAY SUPPORT RENEWED
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A DESTABILIZING
   BOUNDARY LAYER. 

   IN ITS WAKE...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION...IT
   APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT A TRAILING LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COULD BECOME A
   FOCUS FOR DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT...AS THE MAIN UPSTREAM IMPULSE
   CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  IF THIS OCCURS...MOST
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND
   SHEAR...INCLUDING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   STRONG TORNADOES.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE PRESENT
   TIME...BUT THE BOUNDARY WOULD SEEM TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST TORNADO
   PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST VIRGINIA. 

   THE EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ALSO DOES NOT
   APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
   UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
   VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
   CONTINUING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.  AGAIN THIS
   LARGELY DEPENDS ON THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION PRIOR TO MID
   AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL REMAINS UNCLEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME.

[jaxjagman]

 

 

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
   KY...SRN OH...SW WV...AND SW VA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A BROAD AREA FROM THE OH/TN
   VALLEYS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.  THE MOST
   CONCENTRATED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA WILL BE
   ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN WEST
   VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE OF
   STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SWATHS OF DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTERED ON THE KY/WV BORDER AND ADJACENT PARTS OF
   SRN OH/SW VA...WHERE A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES...DAMAGING
   WINDS...AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 60-90 KT MID/UPPER
   SPEED MAX...WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   TO THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND THEN APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN INITIALLY WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NW
   LOWER MI THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS ESEWD AND GRADUALLY DEEPEN
   OVERNIGHT ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
   SEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS.  A RESERVOIR OF LOW-MID 70S BOUNDARY
   LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL SPREAD EWD TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
   ACROSS THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS...BENEATH A REMNANT PLUME OF
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIALLY STRONG
   BUOYANCY.  ALONG WITH THE DESTABILIZATION...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MIDLEVEL
   TROUGH...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS/BOWING
   SEGMENTS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.

[Windspeed]

I want to say the cloud deck in place is really helping our neck of the woods. But it's still early in the game. Even a few hours of sunshine would simply aid the instability that's already in place.

[jaxjagman]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   100 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
     CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
     EAST TENNESSEE
     EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
     800 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
       TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

 

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
   LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

[Windspeed]

We've had about an hour of sun. It's already muggy. Dew points are rising. There's some high debris clouds coming in from the cells over Kentucky, but it probably doesn't matter at this point. This is probably the best chance at seeing a tornado producing super cell for the Tricities region since 2011. Never thought it would be in July. At any rate, whether that pans out or not, I'm pretty much banking on significant hail and high wind gusts at this point.

[Windspeed]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  

357 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...  

WESTERN UNION COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE...  

 

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT  

 

* AT 355 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  

NEAR ZION HILL...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA FOLLETTE...AND MOVING  

SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  

 

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL  

SIZED HAIL AND LARGER...PLUS DAMAGING WINDS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

LA FOLLETTE...MAYNARDVILLE...JACKSBORO...JELLICO...CARYVILLE...  

FINCASTLE...ROYAL BLUE...ELK VALLEY...WHITE OAK...COVE LAKE S.P....  

INDIAN MOUNTAIN S.P....BIG RIDGE S.P....SHARPS CHAPEL...NORRIS LAKE  

AND NORRIS DAM S.P..  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR  

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  

[Windspeed]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  

405 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...  

SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...  

 

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT  

 

* AT 403 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CORNELIUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.  

 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE  

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  

EGYPT AND WELCHBURG AROUND 410 PM EDT.  

SHEPHERDTOWN AND MAULDEN AROUND 415 PM EDT.  

CHESTNUTBURG AND MALCOMB AROUND 420 PM EDT.  

LAUREL CREEK AND THOMAS AROUND 425 PM EDT.  

AMMIE AND FELTY AROUND 430 PM EDT.  

 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGH KNOB AND ALGER.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  

[Windspeed]

Cells intensifying behind the currently Tor warned cells. Don't really see any sign of a transition from discrete to linear on these supercells. This event may last into darkness for the eastern Valley.

[1234snow]

I'm really concerned about this cell in Kentucky as it is heading this way:

[Windspeed]

Yeah, here's the new warning on that cell that's moving into SWVA.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN  

438 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...  

 

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  

 

* AT 438 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  

CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  

OVER KENVIR...OR 9 MILES EAST OF HARLAN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT  

40 MPH.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

GATE CITY...BIG STONE GAP...PENNINGTON GAP...APPALACHIA...ST.  

CHARLES...DUFFIELD...CLINCHPORT...DRYDEN...FORT BLACKMORE...JASPER  

AND PATTONSVILLE.  

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  

 

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  

FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR  

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  

[1234snow]

TOR Warning out now for my area:

[jaxjagman]

TOR Warning out now for my area:

 

 

Looks like its headed right at you,stay safe