wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Nebraska with the first Hook echo of the day.. Supercell headed NW with the hook open to the NE. Edit: Funnel reported at 1920 Edit #2: Warning changed to Confirmed on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Decent velocity scan just NE of Nevada MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 For the NE cell AT 229 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR UPLAND...OR 23 MILES EAST OF HOLDREGE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 2500-4000 CAPE developing with diminishing CINH in the eastern third of OK at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Just weird decisions all around by the SPC. I can maybe understand scaling back the moderate risk area for some parts of MO, but parts of central Arkansas at LEAST need to be under a high risk. This of course isn't to mention the lack of moderate risk from D3. It's like they are scared of busting. There is still a substantial amount of cloud cover over central AR, with some elevated convection still ongoing. CAPE in the northern portion of AR is much lower than forecasted model soundings from yesterday. If anything, I think the threat for the best action has shifted further south across E TX, southern AR and northern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Lightning beginning to go crazy on the Fannin County storm. ETs already around 45kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 There is still a substantial amount of cloud cover over central AR, with some elevated convection still ongoing. CAPE in the northern portion of AR is much lower than forecasted model soundings from yesterday What we have now makes more more nervous than what was modeled. That differential heating boundary is going to keep low-level shear extremely high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 SPC will likely upgrade AR area in the 20z outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 What we have now makes more more nervous than what was modeled. That differential heating boundary is going to keep low-level shear extremely high. I certainly agree the threat for a significant outbreak remains over S AR, E TX, E OK, and N LA along, south and west of the density gradient. However, further into AR the atmosphere is shot and the warm front is not moving as quickly northward as forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 In Missouri, Nevada storm spinning a bit, another storm near it SE of Appleton City doing the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 SPC will likely upgrade AR area in the 20z outlook Based on what? Jim Cantore is at the SPC and talked to Greg Carbin who said this doesn't really have the makings of a high risk day. FWIW, he will be talking to Rich Thompson sometime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 There is still a substantial amount of cloud cover over central AR, with some elevated convection still ongoing. CAPE in the northern portion of AR is much lower than forecasted model soundings from yesterday. If anything, I think the threat for the best action has shifted further south across E TX, southern AR and northern LA. Sure right now that's the case, but as we move later into this evening, this should not be a significant factor. As mentioned, that differential heating boundary that's set up is a great cause for concern going into this evening among the many other favorable parameters. While northern Arkansas and Missouri are certainly out, central, eastern, and southern/southwestern Arkansas are very much in the line of fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Short range progs have MLCAPE moving northward throughout the rest of the afternoon with 55-70 kts of effective shear overspreading much of AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 We know. And for the second part...no...just no. Why do you think high risks are issued in the High Plains then? well seeing as to how thats nearly verbatim what Greg Carbin said on TWC about 30min ago i'd say yes. And also a few people complaining earlier about no high risk were just talking about the volatile environment with very little mention of the collection of the blatant uncertainties associated with parts of the threat area. EDIT: well at the very least it has to be high-impact... More or less meaning over a populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 well seeing as to how thats nearly verbatin what Greg Carbin said on TWC about 30min ago i'd say yes. And also a few people complaining earlier about no high risk were just talking about the volatile environment with very little mention of the collection of the blatant uncertainties associated with parts of the threat area. Dude, just stop. This has already been covered by other people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 well seeing as to how thats nearly verbatin what Greg Carbin said on TWC about 30min ago i'd say yes. And also a few people complaining earlier about no high risk were just talking about the volatile environment with very little mention of the collection of the blatant uncertainties associated with parts of the threat area. Again, we don't need to be lectured by you, thanks. If you have something to add, do so, if not, don't post. And btw, I heard exactly what Carbin said, he brought up this isn't an outbreak day in his opinion because of cloud cover. That normal outbreak days are clear and sunny. That's all he said. I guess every outbreak in the past had full sun all day? And there's people questioning it on NWS Chat also. So people here are not the only ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Does anybody have a good scan of the NE warned cell? I'm unable to see any strong signs of rotation - wondering what I'm missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 developing supercell near Deshler, Nebraska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Starting to see elevated reflectivities just E of Dallas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Fannin County storm now severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Shreveport to Little Rock really look to be primed in the next 3 to 4 hours. Hopefully this day doesn't reach it's potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Pretty much nowcast time, but thought I'd post this anyway. S AR is obviously the area of most concern this afternoon as noted above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Like others have mentioned that stalled differential heating boundary across AR is something to really watch for the rest of the evening, there will be a significant backing of the winds along it and the low level shear is going to skyrocket along it as well. The real danger with it currently is that is parked very close to Little Rock right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Fannin County cell is up to 50,000 feet now. Let's see what she does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Fannin County storm now severe warned. Likely going to be the first long-tracked supercell threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Sure right now that's the case, but as we move later into this evening, this should not be a significant factor. As mentioned, that differential heating boundary that's set up is a great cause for concern going into this evening among the many other favorable parameters. While northern Arkansas and Missouri are certainly out, central, eastern, and southern/southwestern Arkansas are very much in the line of fire. Yes, which is why I think the moderate risk will be shifted further south on the 20z update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 And it's already got decent rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 27, 2014 Author Share Posted April 27, 2014 Discrete cells firing east of DFW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Like others have mentioned that stalled differential heating boundary across AR is something to really watch for the rest of the evening, there will be a significant backing of the winds along it and the low level shear is going to skyrocket along it as well. The real danger with it currently is that is parked very close to Little Rock right now. This is what scares me the most about this evening, but there is a decent chance it can move towards the S/SW before things really get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted April 27, 2014 Share Posted April 27, 2014 Day 1 High risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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