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famartin

Vendor forecast thread

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Granted he just wrote "  -1"  " on his map, but a cursory examination of his map would suggest that its really "up to 1 inch", and the 1" line is actually over ABE.  That said, I still don't see how they get much of anything.  Certainly his forecast snow map is NOT supported by the 0Z GFS or NAM or the 12Z Euro.

 

I saw yesterday that the NAM was showing a (new) snow accumulation over parts of eastern PA and NJ, but like you said, nothing appears to support it, surface or otherwise. On the front end there appears to be too much warm air everywhere but at the surface, on the back end the precip looks to be out of here before it gets cold enough. Maybe the freezing rain is being counted as snow?

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JB thinks the POTENTIAL is there for what the European is showing to come to fruition. He thinks there will be spots in the mid-atlantic to New England that might be able to near their seasonal snow averages before the end of the month. He said it has the earmarks of a period of time weather weenies will long remember. Of course he qualifies the statement with he is not yet making a forecast but patted WXBELL team on their backs for seeing the cold returning when so many others were saying winter over etc

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January 20 11:27 AM
Per JB GFS West correction to continue
 

Gives 3 reasons

 

"1) Notorious model bias. As it is, it has the big snowstorm in the I-95 corridor now, but I suspect that instead of being on the northwest side of the heaviest snow, the big cities will wind up close to the rain line for awhile, which blends into reason 2) The very warm water off the east coast. This has been helping the ridge in the atlantic back in and lead to some of the southerly spikes we have seen this winter so far. In this case, and increasingly into early spring, it will help fuel bigger storms 3) Feedback look of trough. While I think the upgrade is likely to be better, it seems to me the models handling of the trough is suspect. Besides, its hard to believe given the stale air that is going to be lurking over the southeast ( the colder air will try to drain south behind the clipper, but that will be more inland) that this would cut outside of Hatteras. If it cuts inside, its liable to be tightening quicker

You know, there can be big storms back to back. 1966 is an example. We saw an example in 1968,1972,etc. We had 3 in 7 days here in State College in 1978. Its a heck of pattern with a heck of a potential"

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JB on his video this morning said the the 15 days thru the first week of February....he believes will be "epic" for weather weenies. He says between the snow, rumours of snow (no doubt he will not fuel any of those!) and severe cold which he is certain is coming will make this a very memorable time for those who love winter weather. Coldest period will be days 10 to 15. 

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JB on his video this morning said the the 15 days thru the first week of February....he believes will be "epic" for weather weenies. He says between the snow, rumours of snow (no doubt he will not fuel any of those!) and severe cold which he is certain is coming will make this a very memorable time for those who love winter weather. Coldest period will be days 10 to 15.

Did He ever give location? Not that I buy into jb, just curious about his cya approach.

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Problem is that is a very broad statement. For DC and regions south that is likely to ring true on current projections.

All JB does is release broad statements that don't really mean much. That way if it happens he can claim he was right all along and if it doesn't happen he can say "well technically I never said it would definitely happen...", he used to be a good met but now he's just a hype machine that only cares about clicks on his site. I haven't seen a solid JB discussion in well over a year.

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The two letters JB should be banned/blocked (**) from here...kinda like f**k...the guy is a mess and offers zero. If somehow he is correct (<25%)...it's luck which many here could do.

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11pm tv rundown....

kathy orr

1-3" nw burbs (said to watch out for those "heavy bands of rain moving in on the radar"..this was actually the heavy sleet some of us saw)

cecily tynan

downgraded to C- 2" (nearly there already and snowing very hard but she explained storm details so much better than kathy orr)

sheena parveen

not really clear on predicted totals but showed a model with 1-2" ( again, fairly good analysis but always miss hurricane at 11pm)

based on current snow rates, radar and nearly 2" already, I think all three will be too low with final amounts!!

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Pretty shameful spin job by 101.5. I heard a dreadful forecast with Dan Zarrow's name on it last night around 8pm for "4inches north and west of the turnpike."

This morning they try to play it off like that was a good call. Average of 4" in north NJ? Must have missed the NWS p.I.s. Pretty sure snow fell south of the turnpike too.

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