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Vendor forecast thread

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Yeah those JB tweets were from Dec 3 and 4, so those ideas weren't bad (as long as you don't consider "many shovel snow" to include the big cities from DC through Boston).

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Latest from the WeatherBell team and specifically a tweet from JB this PM

"We think what happened in the mid and latter part of November is on the way next 2 to 3 weeks, but mid-winter style. We can compare come mid January" No doubt we shall compare......right here!

 

Also on the WB website he says after the PM Euro came out today " Amazing how the colder this gets...the more I hear people say nothing is going on - Here is the problem - ONCE THE ARTIC AIR IS IN THE PATTERN, then we shall see what these different short waves do and how the models handle them. I would not even write off the first one early next week, the models have next to nothing with it now....let's see what this looks like on Sunday"

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JB today seeing the cold continuing for the most part with possible brief pull backs but overall a cold pattern for the next couple months also saying the models won't see it but watch for the 2nd strong arctic outbreak following this week's impressive one to be attacked by an upper feature that the models will lose but will result in "quite the snowstorm from the plains to the east coast in the 8 to 11 day period.

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this is pure entertainment, I mean I almost fell off my chair:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/551923979913805824

 

then you have the other guy in Richmond ranting & raving about the 4" this morning in DC in the face of the official 1-2" forecast however when you look at his map you see 1-2" for Balt., DC, & immediate burbs

 

can't make this stuff up

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no arguments on JBs point there....no doubt you are one of those who see him as a hypester......I clearly do not but when it comes to JB folks are very passionate on both sides of the aisle so no use arguing why I see him as kind of like Fox News.....fair and balanced - the antithesis of MSNBC if you will.

That said as I always say my first source of weather information comes from the best - the PHL Mount Holly Team!

 

this is pure entertainment, I mean I almost fell off my chair:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/551923979913805824

 

then you have the other guy in Richmond ranting & raving about the 4" this morning in DC in the face of the official 1-2" forecast however when you look at his map you see 1-2" for Balt., DC, & immediate burbs

 

can't make this stuff up

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From JB on the midday Euro

 

"Just a brief comment to acknowledge what you all see. I wont be changing my ideas, I like this pattern for the threat of major phasing on the east coast, understand why I may be wrong, but also given the history of storms that have occurred with features out of the southwest, pulling my idea 5 days away may just be an invitation to flip flop"

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From JB today - no changes (call me shocked!)

 

 "Because the GFS is likely to vary between runs like last night and runs where it jumps energy out front. The ECMWF is in its drag its heels time frame. So as far as my ideas.. no changes.

 

A model showing what 06z had is no more valid to me than one that has nothing from this stage. In the scheme of the entire global pattern, these are very tiny systems that if they vary a bit , means alot as far as the sensible weather result. I am old pattern recognition forecasting.. I have a strong max going south of the four corners with a big arctic high in the northeast supported by high heights that have to collapse in the Wed-Fri Period. There should be a big storm. With models all over the place, I will stay with what I have for now

I guess that was a comment, but the comment is there is no change in what I was commenting on"

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DT essentially cancelled winter fwiw. Sees a pattern change to warmer and nothing to change that in the long range thru early/mid Feb.

 

gonna be interesting to see what happens.  JB this morning is all about extreme cold coming in after a short moderation.  Seem to imply that if snow gets laid down, places like Chicago-NY will see the coldest temps of the winter during this period and this cold locks in thru Feb.

 

Did DT bail too early OR is JB just being JB?....   stay tuned! :jerry:  :pepsi:

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Dr. Joe D weighed in that anyone thinking winter is over is in for a rude awakening....also JB in his post today said the WB team is confident their winter forecast is right on track...even with the longer December thaw then they forecasted.....we shall see what we shall see.

 

I enjoyed reading Joe D's (Dr Dewpoint) blogs when he was with Intellicast about 12-13 years ago.  Very bright man.  Hope he's right.

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Did DT bail too early OR is JB just being JB?....   stay tuned! :jerry:  :pepsi:

 

JB is always JB...but I don't think winter is anywhere near over.  Most modeling looks pretty cold after the brief mild-up over the next 5 days.

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From JB today - no changes (call me shocked!)

"Because the GFS is likely to vary between runs like last night and runs where it jumps energy out front. The ECMWF is in its drag its heels time frame. So as far as my ideas.. no changes.

A model showing what 06z had is no more valid to me than one that has nothing from this stage. In the scheme of the entire global pattern, these are very tiny systems that if they vary a bit , means alot as far as the sensible weather result. I am old pattern recognition forecasting.. I have a strong max going south of the four corners with a big arctic high in the northeast supported by high heights that have to collapse in the Wed-Fri Period. There should be a big storm. With models all over the place, I will stay with what I have for now

I guess that was a comment, but the comment is there is no change in what I was commenting on"

how did this do

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Gotta say that he said to take any warmups with a grain of salt and don't be surprised if any moderation features snow. What looked like 40's to near 50 for 4 or 5 days is now a single day

of low 40's (Sunday) with a threat of snow on the front and back end of a storm as shown in my local P&C.

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not so swell....but he did keep saying he was being stubborn - which as we all know is his bias. Still overall on pattern recognition he has been top notch this year with the exception of the delayed but not denied December cold

 

December cold :lmao:  it was wall to wall warmth, serious reality check

 

post-1715-0-72238100-1421338232_thumb.pn

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Surprised when I just saw DT has rain ending as snow bucks,montco and chester with 1-3" tomorrow

2-4" Allentown

 

That what the NAM/GFS show.

Assumption is that Mt Holly figures the storm is done at that point or something.

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That what the NAM/GFS show.

Assumption is that Mt Holly figures the storm is done at that point or something.

No, they don't.  Its done before the cold air moves in.  Gotta look at soundings and not just the 850 temps.  Low levels stay warm til its all done.

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No, they don't.  Its done before the cold air moves in.  Gotta look at soundings and not just the 850 temps.  Low levels stay warm til its all done.

 

 

Okay. So DT is wrong. Assumption is he does not want to fail or look foolish with his forecast.

Let the challenge begin.

Sad that I can't track the 850 level for snow in the middle of january.

Hopefully I get an inch. Precip looks decent on the models with the 850 line past my area.

Going with the storm will generate it's cold air in my area. :pimp:

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Okay. So DT is wrong. Assumption is he does not want to fail or look foolish with his forecast.

Let the challenge begin.

Sad that I can't track the 850 level for snow in the middle of january.

Hopefully I get an inch. Precip looks decent on the models with the 850 line past my area.

Going with the storm will generate it's cold air in my area. :pimp:

isn't that his forecast and not a model interpretation?  therefore, he isn't wrong yet.  I think he will be wrong, and the gfs does not back him up, but don't call bust before something happens.

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isn't that his forecast and not a model interpretation?  therefore, he isn't wrong yet.  I think he will be wrong, and the gfs does not back him up, but don't call bust before something happens.

 

agree.

true test of private vs. public.

only one losing is me I assume. I want snow, most people don't. :violin:

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DT new map 1" northern bucks and montco

1-3" Allentown

Granted he just wrote "  -1"  " on his map, but a cursory examination of his map would suggest that its really "up to 1 inch", and the 1" line is actually over ABE.  That said, I still don't see how they get much of anything.  Certainly his forecast snow map is NOT supported by the 0Z GFS or NAM or the 12Z Euro.

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