Yellow Evan Posted June 13, 2014 Author Share Posted June 13, 2014 http://smn.cna.gob.mx/emas/txt/CO02_10M.TXT Link to Soccoro Island obs. Current pressure of 999 mbar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanwx Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Better link: http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat Nudos is Spanish for knots. Already 36G60KT pressure 992 mb with 2.5 mm (0.10 inch) rain in 15 minutes. That's heavy rain (>0.30 inch/hour). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Christina down to 90 MPH/978 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Better link: http://meteorologia.semar.gob.mx/datos_emas/socorro.dat Nudos is Spanish for knots. Already 36G60KT pressure 992 mb with 2.5 mm (0.10 inch) rain in 15 minutes. That's heavy rain (>0.30 inch/hour). Looks like a 69mph/87 mph peak with a minimum pressure of 985.9 millibars. Topped out at 11.4mm of rain in 15 minutes unless something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 14, 2014 Author Share Posted June 14, 2014 Brushed to the S. Looks like conditions improving in Socorro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 From the 2am PDT advisory: The 2014 eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record faststart. Up through today's date, it has the highest AccumulatedCyclone Energy (ACE) value of any year since 1971-- over 6 timesthe 1981-2010 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 15, 2014 Author Share Posted June 15, 2014 Cristina gone, but we have a new lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 21, 2014 Author Share Posted June 21, 2014 Currently 30%, but was 50% yesterday. GFS shows 2 systems in the long range FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2014 Share Posted June 21, 2014 Not clear why they decided to lower the probability... The low-level circulation appears to be consolidating. The initial motion of 95E is also in the same direction as the shear vector, where some research has shown isn't quite as detrimental for development. Visible imagery this afternoon shows a tight low-level swirl, so if the convection can organize just a bit more near the llc, its a TC. (I do agree its long-term future is probably not very good, but this is maybe a 50-70% probability to be a TC within 24 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 22, 2014 Author Share Posted June 22, 2014 Down to a 20% lemon now. running into shear. Action should pick up in 10 days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 23, 2014 Author Share Posted June 23, 2014 Back to 30% but close to land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Borrowed from 'The Global Warmer'. I think iCyclone will not only chase Pacific Mexico this year, but farther North than usual... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Borrowed from 'The Global Warmer'. I think iCyclone will not only chase Pacific Mexico this year, but farther North than usual... No need to borrow that image, you can get it with daily updates here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Has Los Angles proper ever been threatened directly by a landfalling tropical cyclone before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Has Los Angles proper ever been threatened directly by a landfalling tropical cyclone before? Long Beach had a TS landfall in the 1930s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Long_Beach_Tropical_Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 It's safe to say the East Pacific is about to become busy as both a strong MJO pulse and a strong CCKW traverse the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 Borrowed from 'The Global Warmer'. I think iCyclone will not only chase Pacific Mexico this year, but farther North than usual... Where has he been anyway? Looking at old threads from 2006-2012, he was main poster.there. Regarding the SST map, it reminds me of 1997 a bit. Still, we need a prefect setup to get a California hurricane landfall. Long Beach had a TS landfall in the 1930s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Long_Beach_Tropical_Storm San Degio also got a direct hit in 1858. It's safe to say the East Pacific is about to become busy as both a strong MJO pulse and a strong CCKW traverse the region. Yea, GFS shows a 974 mbar cyclone passing near San Blas and a system after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Kind of amazing if you think about it with regards to how often San Diego has been hit. I know that OHC dramatically drops off in the Pacific north of 30N but you would think the rarity levels would be similar to a direct hit on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 Kind of amazing if you think about it with regards to how often San Diego has been hit. I know that OHC dramatically drops off in the Pacific north of 30N but you would think the rarity levels would be similar to a direct hit on Long Island. A lot of people don't realize just how cold the Pacific is, even during the month of Aug as far south as San Diego. The coastal waters are drastically warmer off of LI, and high OHC / >26C waters are also a lot closer to LI (so the TC would have less cold water to traverse before reaching them). Even during El Nino years, the warm anomalies never get as far north as S CA. August climatology: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 25, 2014 Share Posted June 25, 2014 All the LFs in CA occurred during very strong Niños. This year, the chances of a strong Niño are waning based on OHC trends, so there's near-0% chance that CA will get anything this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 All the LFs in CA occurred during very strong Niños. This year, the chances of a strong Niño are waning based on OHC trends, so there's near-0% chance that CA will get anything this season. I don't think so. 1939 was, yea. But I don't think 1858 was much of an El Nino. 1978 was a weak El Nino, and saw a TD make landfall there. CA will likely get something, but as a hurricane landfall, no, but the odds are higher than any season IMO since 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 25, 2014 Author Share Posted June 25, 2014 A lot of people don't realize just how cold the Pacific is, even during the month of Aug as far south as San Diego. The coastal waters are drastically warmer off of LI, and high OHC / >26C waters are also a lot closer to LI (so the TC would have less cold water to traverse before reaching them). Even during El Nino years, the warm anomalies never get as far north as S CA. August climatology: color_smoothing+null+psdef+.pngcolor_smoothing+null+psdef+cbar.png Agreed, even landfalls north of San Carlos are hard. SST's drop off a bit after 22-25N. Granted, SST's are 3C higher than normal right now. Here is 1997's SST graph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 I don't think so. 1939 was, yea. But I don't think 1858 was much of an El Nino. 1978 was a weak El Nino, and saw a TD make landfall there. CA will likely get something, but as a hurricane landfall, no, but the odds are higher than any season IMO since 1997. I'm referring to an actual TS or stronger impact. (Data in 1858 are non-existent, but studies on the 1858 hurricane indicate that SSTs were likely much higher than average, indicating a likely strong Niño then in existence.) CA has seen the remnants of many systems in seasons that did not have a strong Niño, but none of those systems was a TS or stronger by the time it reached CA. CA has a very limited history with TCs of TS or greater intensity, and based on our (admittedly limited) historical data, the odds this year are much lower than in a strong Niño. This year looks increasingly unlikely to be a strong (≥1.5°C based on ONI) Niño, so I'd say the odds are 99.9% that CA won't see a TS or stronger impact this year. I could be wrong, but then take up the complaint with climatology, not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 I'm referring to an actual TS or stronger impact. (Data in 1858 are non-existent, but studies on the 1858 hurricane indicate that SSTs were likely much higher than average, indicating a likely strong Niño then in existence.) CA has seen the remnants of many systems in seasons that did not have a strong Niño, but none of those systems was a TS or stronger by the time it reached CA. CA has a very limited history with TCs of TS or greater intensity, and based on our (admittedly limited) historical data, the odds this year are much lower than in a strong Niño. This year looks increasingly unlikely to be a strong (≥1.5°C based on ONI) Niño, so I'd say the odds are 99.9% that CA won't see a TS or stronger impact this year. I could be wrong, but then take up the complaint with climatology, not me. It's too small of a sample size for me to know with high confidence. All we know for sure is that both CA TS/hurricanes were in (presumably) strong El Nino events (1939 and 1858). We also know that both 1939 and 1858 occurred during +PDO. The reason why I think it's more likely than any Nino since 1997, is that SST's up there are warming than 2009, and the PDO is more positive. I would not rule out a strong Nino either. I'd give a 2% chance a CA landfall occurring this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 Speaking of iCyclone chases, GFS shows this out of our new lemon. Brings in onshore a few hours later as a large system but a small tight core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 It's too small of a sample size for me to know with high confidence. All we know for sure is that both CA TS/hurricanes were in (presumably) strong El Nino events (1939 and 1858). We also know that both 1939 and 1858 occurred during +PDO. The reason why I think it's more likely than any Nino since 1997, is that SST's up there are warming than 2009, and the PDO is more positive. I would not rule out a strong Nino either. I'd give a 2% chance a CA landfall occurring this year. That's a really high probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 That's a really high probability. Yea, but it's still higher than anything post-1997 IMO. I think a Hawaii hurricane landfall is more likely this year, but no storm came nowhere near Hawaii in 1997 and the WDR has been very quiet thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Yea, but it's still higher than anything post-1997 IMO. I think a Hawaii hurricane landfall is more likely this year, but no storm came nowhere near Hawaii in 1997 and the WDR has been very quiet thus far. I actually wasn't being sarcastic there, that is really, really high. I'd say the odds of a TC landfall in CA in any given year on average are ~0.5%. So the 2% figure was quite surprising to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yellow Evan Posted June 26, 2014 Author Share Posted June 26, 2014 I actually wasn't being sarcastic there, that is really, really high. I'd say the odds of a TC landfall in CA in any given year on average are ~0.5%. So the 2% figure was quite surprising to me. Well, this is an El Nino year, and there's an outside chance of us getting a strong one. SST's along the Baja region are 3C+ above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 26, 2014 Share Posted June 26, 2014 Well, this is an El Nino year, and there's an outside chance of us getting a strong one. SST's along the Baja region are 3C+ above average. Except the SSTs/OHC still drop off dramatically north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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