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mreaves

NNE Spring

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Precipitation started around 5:45 P.M. or so here in the Waterbury area; it was just rain at first, but around 8:30 P.M. we heard the first ticks of sleet and we’ve had quite a sleet storm going on since then with a couple of tenths down.  Getting measurable puts this storm in the books as the 57th accumulating storm of the season.  I’ve been out on the porch a couple of times and it’s quite the stormy, nasty night out there.

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Sleet started mixing in about 10 minutes ago here in Bartlett, 850 ft

It will be interesting to see if you can flip to parachutes in the next hour or so.

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Good deal of sleet mixing in now ....32.6

 

Good...lift must be doing its dirty work finally. GFS actually cooled you guys to chutes, so it'll be neat to see if that happens as Will mentioned earlier.

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It will be interesting to see if you can flip to parachutes in the next hour or so.

I'm hoping... :) will be traveling for the next 3 weeks so this is probably my last winter storm of the season

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Sleety, icy coating. Wind and rain was cranking pretty good on the way home from dinner in Williston tonight. Got blown all over 89 through Bolton Flats. Thought it was just rain when I got home at 9:00 but there was ice on the deck stair rail. 33.7F

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Weird how MWN still hasn't warmed...but there aren't a lot of snow reports....looks like mostly pingers.

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Although that said, it looks like on dual pol, most of Coos county in NH has flipped to snow.

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We'll see how the upslope goes tonight...maybe this is the only way this system gives accumulating snows haha.

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/... as of 400 am EDT Saturday...forecast challenge today will be potential for upslope rain/snow showers...especially this afternoon followed by temps/winds. Surface analysis places cold front across central New York at this time with gusty west to southwest winds at 30 to 40 knots observed behind this feature. Also...noted secondary 500 mb vorticity dropping across the central Great Lakes with plenty of middle/upper level moisture in trough axis...which will impact our County Warning Area this afternoon. Soundings show favorable conditions for accumulating upslope rain and snow showers this aftn/evening...with good moisture from surface through 700mb...favorable 270 to 290 follow of 35 to 45 knots...and some enhanced 1000 to 700mb Omega...especially across the western slopes/northern dacks between 18z-03z. Soundings show the freezing level dropping throughout the day as strong low level cold air advection develops and prognosticated 850 mb temperatures fall between -8c and -10c. Thinking this will result in temperatures falling into the 20s across the mountains with accumulating snowfall expected down to 1200 feet expected by this aftn/evening. Snow accumulations will range between 3-5 inches above 2500 feet by 06z tonight where ratios will be higher to a dusting to 3 inches above 1200 feet...with lower snow ratios associated with warmer bl conditions. Once again this accumulations will be by 06z Sunday. Will mention likely to Cat probability of precipitation across the western slopes from Sugarbush to Stowe to Jay Peak and across the northern dacks...with best time period for precipitation between 18z-03z.

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Nasty night last night:  howling southerly, rain, freezing rain & sleet.  Started as just liquid but quickly went over to a slushy sleet as the temp dropped down to the freezing level.  We even had some ice accumulation on tree branches--not something we see often in April, lol.

 

About a half-inch of sleet accum....

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25F up at 3,600ft and 30-31F now at 1,550ft.

 

While nothing happened at 750ft...it was all IP/ZR at 1,500ft.  We are locked up tight at the mountain, unfortunately.  Re-grooming as many trails as possible this morning with a delayed opening.  Trees are all very iced over.

 

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No glaze here at base level, but there must be up higher at lp.

I liked my donuts glazed, not ski mtns. Especially Krispy Kreme. Miss those. Hard to find these days.

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Event totals: 0.2” Sleet/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow (Sleet): 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 4.0

Snow Density: 25.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.9 F

Sky: Mist/Sprinkles

Snow at the stake: 9.5 inches

 

The 0.2” of sleet last night appears to be all the frozen precipitation obtained from this event thus far, but the trailing 500 mbar trough is expected to come through this afternoon into tonight with the potential for upslope snow.  There’s no mention of advisories, presumably due to low impact, but the BTV NWS forecast discussion is mentioning 3-5” at elevation, and that seems to be in line with the general point forecasts – I see 2-6” coming up for the Bolton area, and 2-4” for Mt. Mansfield.  They also really seem to like the combination of wind direction, moisture up to 700 mbar, 850 mbar temperatures, and omega.  It sounds that laundry list of parameters that PF mentions in upslope discussions, and I see that he’s already checked it out, but I highlighted a couple of section from the discussion below:

 

FCST CHALLENGE TODAY WL BE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN FOLLOWED BY TEMPS/WINDS. SFC ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRNT ACRS CENTRAL NY ATTM WITH GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS OBSERVED BEHIND THIS FEATURE. ALSO...NOTED SECONDARY 5H VORT DROPPING ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LVL MOISTURE IN TROF AXIS...WHICH WL IMPACT OUR CWA THIS AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ACCUMULATING UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN/EVENING...WITH GOOD MOISTURE FROM SFC THRU 700MB...FAVORABLE 270 TO 290 FLW OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AND SOME ENHANCED 1000 TO 700MB OMEGA...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES/NORTHERN DACKS BTWN 18Z-03Z. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG LLVL CAA DEVELOPS AND PROGGED 85H TEMPS FALL BTWN -8C AND -10C. THINKING THIS WL RESULT IN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 20S ACRS THE MTNS WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED DOWN TO 1200 FEET EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN/EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WL RANGE BTWN 3-5 INCHES ABOVE 2500 FEET BY 06Z TONIGHT WHERE RATIOS WL BE HIGHER TO A DUSTING TO 3 INCHES ABOVE 1200 FEET...WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER BL CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN THIS ACCUMULATIONS WL BE BY 06Z SUNDAY. WL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM SUGARBUSH TO STOWE TO JAY PEAK AND ACRS THE NORTHERN DACKS...WITH BEST TIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP BTWN 18Z-03Z. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLW WL LIMIT PRECIP/QPF ACRS THE CPV AND LWR CT RIVER VALLEY TODAY...THEREFORE WL MENTION CHC POPS. EXPECTING MAINLY CLOUD SKIES WITH UPSTREAM SATL PICS SHOWING PLENTY OF STRATUS CUMULUS CLOUDS. TEMPS WL BE TRICKY WITH LLVL CAA...BUT THINKING L/M 40S VALLEYS TO TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U20S/L30S MTNS ABOVE 1200 FT. IN ADDITION...THE LLVL CAA WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST WINDS AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE ALIGNED VALLEYS AND EXPOSED TRRN.

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Sugarloaf

 

If you thought winter was over, guess again. Sugarloafers woke up to a winter wonderland this morning, with 4-6 inches of new snow on the ground and even more being reported up on the hill. We certainly won't complain about MORE snow, because in addition to the awesome freshies just waiting to be skied this morning, the heavier accumulation will make a great addition to our bumps, glades, and the Backside Snowfields, hopefully allowing that terrain to remain open longer into the spring.

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