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March 30th-April 1st Winter Storm/Blizzard


prinsburg_wx

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A variety of winter storm & blizzard watches are up for portions of MN, SD & ND for late sun thru tue.

 

 

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
445 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2014

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REACH
CENTRAL CA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS DYNAMIC FEATURE WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SUN BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR MON. THE IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE NRN POLAR STREAM/FRONTAL ZONE... AS A SURFACE
LOW TRACKS FROM NERN CO TO SWRN MN ON MON AND PROCEEDS DOWNSTREAM
TO LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUES. THE RESULTANT WILL BE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
SNOWFALL FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE
CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY SNOW ON SUN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST... AS
FAVORABLE UPPER JET STRUCTURE COMBINES WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE CA SIERRA TO THE NRN
WASATCH/UINTAS AND TETONS. THEN THE FOCUS ON MON SHIFTS FROM THE
FRONT RANGE OF THE NRN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES OR WY THROUGH SD/SERN ND
INTO NRN/CENTRAL MN. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY... DRAW IN INCREASING GULF OF MEXICO RETURN FLOW... AS NRN
POLAR FRONT AND COLD ADVECTION WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
RESULTANT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT NARROW AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM
RAP TO DLH AND THE HEAVIEST AXIS FROM NERN SD/SERN ND TO NRN MN.
THIS IS WHERE 4 TO 12 INCH HEAVY
SNOW PROBS WERE ISSUED BY
FOLLOWING A BLEND/COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THEN ON TUES AS
THE SYSTEM PROCEEDS DOWNSTREAM BUT AT A SLOWER CLIP... THE 500MB
TROUGH WILL TAKE A NEG TILT AND DEFORMATION REGION WILL SWEEP
ACROSS MN INTO WI AND THE UP OF MI. WPC STAYED ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO
THE GFS AND ECMWF.

 

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This is a classic late winter/early spring storm for the N Plains. This is very reminiscent of the Feb 28th-29th storm from 2012, albeit a much weaker wave. Models poorly handled the lee ejection and rapid cyclogenesis with that low, and it busted hard south. There is potential for that here as well. Interestingly the ECMWF nailed that event, and here is it leading the way with a N solution, however. So that is different.

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0Z RGEM even further north yet with a full blown blizzard for BIS/GFK & tstorms for MSP.

This is going to be a close call, real close, especially for locations near GFK. I am STILL worried that the split flow PV ejects the Rockies and deepens too fast, and takes a S track. Living in GFK I have seen it so often. But the ECMWF has been leading the way here...with the other guidance trending to it. Still high bust potential...and there will be a solid gradient on the N end. 

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Baro, I have a question to ask, not about this storm but the one that may follow it on April 3-4th, I'm putting it here because I don't want it to get lost in the severe thread.  While I can't post maps because they are password protected, I have noticed that the operational ECMWF insists on closing off the northern stream energy, now the ECMWF ensemble mean from 03/29 12z run is showing the same thing.  How much credence would you put on that??

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Hi    early morning forecast from NWS GF....     the Euro held firm and seems to be the winner most models trending that way.   GFS model remains taking the low to about MSP   whereas the GEM/Euro take more from Sioux Falls to Wilmar area to near Duluth.    WPC folks like the GEM/Euro and so does Environment Canada.     EC Winnipeg has issued winter storm watches up to Winnipeg region south and east...though Winnipeg itself on the edge.      It does seem GFK right in the broad zone of 10-12+ inches

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the 4km NAM forecasts a lot of snow for North Dakota, northern Minnesota, and Billings MT. Note that Billings is already 55.2" of snow above their seasonal-to-date snowfall (more than 200% of normal for the season).  gray/white is 12-16" and yellow is 24" on this plot.

 

 

post-1182-0-18783500-1396207251_thumb.jp

 

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15z SREF ensemble mean has 29 inches for GFK... this would cripple the city if it were to verify... interesting how the NAM/SREF/ECMWF have really converged on such a high ceiling event.  Even the GFS shifted north a bit even though its further south... GFK would still get 8-10 it seems based on the GFS, but it is the outlier.  Still think this system has high bust potential, at least for GFK... someone is going to get buried.

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Looks like I will be eating my words on this one. ECMWF nailed this track from 3-4 days ago. A big difference here from past busts is the warm sector is completely lacking significant return flow moisture, with the usual fly in the ointment warm sector convection not even a part of the discussion. An impressive deep coupled upper level jet and a closed circulation from surface to 300 hpa and a hellacious baroclinic zone, the atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics are good for a significant crushing over the sweet spot within the WCB defo band. Honestly the only thing that may keep this from dumping 3" hr with TSSN is the lack of lower static stability return flow air from the S.

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Baro, I have a question to ask, not about this storm but the one that may follow it on April 3-4th, I'm putting it here because I don't want it to get lost in the severe thread.  While I can't post maps because they are password protected, I have noticed that the operational ECMWF insists on closing off the northern stream energy, now the ECMWF ensemble mean from 03/29 12z run is showing the same thing.  How much credence would you put on that??

Sorry for late response. I haven't been looking terribly close at that system, but all the guidance seems to be hinting at some sort of split stream trough ejecting the 4 corners. Confluent flow in the N stream and a washed out baroclinic zone wouldn't lend much confidence to a significant closed and deep low, but it will have  a significant moisture tap available. Essentially it will be highly dependent upon the strength of the leeside PV anomaly, and that at 4.5 days can be somewhat variable. But it is definitely plausible, and it seems the GFS has caught on to the idea the ECMWF is still hinting at.

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North Dakota

---

NDZ004>008-012>016-024-026-027-054-311700-  NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA      CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  GRAND FORKS    HVY SNOW  18  14  84 N28G33    29.85F VSB 1/4 WCI  -1    GRND FRKS AFB  SNOW      14  10  85 N30G40    29.90S VSB 1/2 WCI  -7    DEVILS LAKE    CLOUDY     9   0  66 N38G44    29.94F VSB<1/4 WCI -16    
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0233   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1208 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND TO   NORTHWEST MN   CONCERNING...BLIZZARD    VALID 311708Z - 312245Z   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR AND AT LEAST   NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST   MN.   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REFLECTS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH   CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS/WEST-CENTRAL NEB AS OF MIDDAY...WITH A   DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /AROUND 992 MB/ LOCATED ALONG THE MO RIVER   VALLEY NEAR THE YANKTON/SIOUX FALLS VICINITIES AS OF 17Z. SNOW IS   ALREADY ONGOING ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL SD INTO   SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN ND...AND ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS   PROBABLE AS THE PARENT CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE   NORTHEASTWARD/MODESTLY DEEPEN. FURTHERMORE...STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY   WINDS /45+ KT/ WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST   NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THOUGH   THE AFTERNOON.   INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION/WARM ADVECTION ASIDE...THE   RELATIVE COLLOCATION OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE   RATES/WEAK STATIC STABILITY AND EVEN SOME WEAK ELEVATED CAPE ARE   INFLUENCING THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS   HIGHLY-ORGANIZED/CONTRACTING SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED INTENSE   SNOW BANDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER SNOW MAY   ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME LIGHTNING RECENTLY /1645Z/ NOTED   BETWEEN JAMESTOWN AND FARGO IN SOUTHEAST ND. SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF   1 IN/HR AND AT LEAST NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS   THE REGION...WITH SNOW RATES APPROACHING 2 IN/HR IN ASSOCIATION WITH   SOME OF THE MOST INTENSE/CONVECTIVE BANDS INTO EARLY EVENING.   ..GUYER.. 03/31/2014   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...ABR...BIS...

 

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on the warm side of the storm there have been several tornado sightings in w MN.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN425 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...* UNTIL 445 PM CDT* AT 422 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHEAST  OF CANBY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE           TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS           LIKELY.* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL LAC QUI  PARLE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...PROVIDENCE AND  DAWSON.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO ANINTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOIDWINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THECLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

 

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND

711 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

0500 PM HEAVY SNOW THIEF RIVER FALLS 48.11N 96.18W

03/31/2014 E9.0 INCH PENNINGTON MN BROADCAST MEDIA

0631 PM HEAVY SNOW ROSEAU 48.85N 95.76W

03/31/2014 M10.0 INCH ROSEAU MN TRAINED SPOTTER

0700 PM HEAVY SNOW GRAND FORKS 47.92N 97.07W

03/31/2014 M9.5 INCH GRAND FORKS ND OFFICIAL NWS OBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND

644 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0640 PM HEAVY SNOW JAMESTOWN 46.91N 98.71W

03/31/2014 E10.0 INCH STUTSMAN ND PUBLIC

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Just got back inside after driving around a bit in town here. We were in a stock 2002 Cherokee and had no problems cruising around but the roads were awful still and we didn't see one maintenance vehicle. We encountered numerous autos that had become stuck in drifts and whatnot. I'll be surprised if they don't just cancel classes on campus tomorrow, even though we're already delayed until 10am.

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Well, they cancelled classes until 4:30pm today. It's tough to tell but I estimate we have about 12" in front of my apartment, which fits with some other reports here in town of anywhere between 9.5"-13". Places just west and NE of here saw higher accumulations, some as much as 18". All hail the Euro I guess.

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Well, they cancelled classes until 4:30pm today. It's tough to tell but I estimate we have about 12" in front of my apartment, which fits with some other reports here in town of anywhere between 9.5"-13". Places just west and NE of here saw higher accumulations, some as much as 18". All hail the Euro I guess.

UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything.

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UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything.

 

They tried their hardest not to. They cancelled Monday morning at 5:30 and then Tuesday morning at about 8:30. It's not like any out of town students or faculty would have been able to get here anyways ha.

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UND has really gotten "soft" compared to my days. There was a time they wouldn't close for anything.

 

It does sound like they've gone soft compared to the stories I've heard.  But I know there's no way I could have even attempted to get out of my parking space until about 4:00pm Tuesday, lol.

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