user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Deff a good 50 miles NW @ 99 - mod snow to LI shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 more energy @ the base of the trough. a tad quicker than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Meh. Nothing of substance to report on so far... should hold serve I would think. Edit: if anything, things look a bit flatter through hour 66. "Meh" remains the word of choice. Maybe U should wait til the run plays out or let somebody report on it that knows what they're talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 West and looks a bit faster going up the coast. Better run. See if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 At 12 hours, you can see the slight nuances in the amplitude of the northern Alaskan ridging coupled with the downstream effects on the north Atlantic Pacific Northern Pacific Pattern What was this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The forks and esp the cape get destroyed this run another tick west and more amped this run - It was also a tad quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Maybe U should wait til the run plays out or let somebody report on it that knows what they're talking about. I think you mean 'you'. This is a professional board, mind. The run managed to "recover" for the most part, but the changes still seem negligible to me. Hopefully it's the start of something more substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The forks and esp the cape get destroyed this run another tick west and more amped this run - It was also a tad quicker Now we are talkin. Define 'destroyed' . because if forks are destroyed then all we need is a 100 mile tick and those in queens are destroyed and another 30 and everyone gets in on a MECS. 1ft+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still time for this to come west the trends on the rest of tonights runs and than tomorrow will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Still time for this to come west the trends on the rest of tonights runs and than tomorrow will be interesting. We have plenty of time...If this gfs run was 48 hours hours out, we would still be in the game because you would only need a slight change along the way to get this more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nice move west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nice move west... Yes, much better overall mid-level structure this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Any news on the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurr_Tracker13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Need the EURO and GGEM to come back west for this to be real. What a powerful storm on the GFS though, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Nice move west... Similar track to todays EURO I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 it's a baby step i suppose. the key will be trying to hook up with the southern low as quick as possible to keep it from kicking east too early. The 0z GFS was quicker with that, and brought the storm more N than E initially. 18z GFS below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This Is not better than this Kid yourselves though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This 1.png Is not better than this 2.png Kid yourselves though.... look at 84-90...thats why it ticked west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 This 1.png Is not better than this 2.png Kid yourselves though.... yeah, it is. It's further west and more phased by every objective measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Kinda interesting that the 00z gfs dampens the western ridge and loses some of that retrograding PV chunk, but it more than makes up for it with the cleaner phase and the less downstream confluence. I hate to be that guy who cross-posts met. thoughts, but this (from the NE forum) confirms to an extent what I was saying about an initial mediocre look that recovered later on. Maybe we can get both aspects to work in our favor, instead of the hand-off we just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 yeah, it is. It's further west and more phased by every objective measure. Agree, it is stronger and further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I hate to be that guy who cross-posts met. thoughts, but this (from the NE forum) confirms to an extent what I was saying about an initial mediocre look that recovered later on. Maybe we can get both aspects to work in our favor, instead of the hand-off we just saw. yeah, clearly that would be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 By Sunday, can we lock it as a MECS if this course plays out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 look at 84-90...thats why it ticked west If you define a tick west as 50 miles, a couple of more ticks and its game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 -0z Ggem is well west of the 12z run. -At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Same 25 MB drop in 12 hours. So great cyclogenesis occurring here. The Westward Precip field went from Montauk at 18z into central NJ at 0z I don't know say about 150 miles west even as the slp placement is similar. So look for the center to come west over the next 24 hours as this Prob tracks on the arctic boundary. Remember the hardest equation to solve is the precip . So a system deepening this rapidly should have a more robust precip Field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 -0z Ggem is well west of the 12z run. -At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS. where are you getting the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 -0z Ggem is well west of the 12z run. -At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS. Good signs brother...another 24 hours and we can start to figure this one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 -0z Ggem is well west of the 12z run. -At hour 96, the 0z Ukmet is well west of the GFS. Ggem ends up a bit west and snowier then the GFS. UKMET precip details are not available but based on the hour 96 position of the low, I would guess its west of both the ggem and ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 where are you getting the ukmet? http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=6&nh=1&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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