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3-24 to 3-26 possible winter storm?


Rankin5150

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I've all ready been jinxed by the name not to be mentioned . Tweets about wintry weather possible for NGA and SC. The last two times that happened, I got 34 and rain and 33 and rain. So I'm out and I finally got a job , so I ain't got time to track a dud, but you NC boys bring it home!

 

Sure will all the way to the middle of next month.  The rate its going there might be 1 or 2 in the makings between the beginning and middle of April. Don't know why but April won't get out of my head

 

 

 

But anyway back on topic. The 12z euro says not much to see here for 23/24th. Temps too warm aloft but its probably out to lunch considering this is another anafrontal system. It would possibly imply rain to rain/sleet for northern sections. 18z nam is crap anyway... moving the precip in the wrong direction. So time to wait for happy hour goofus.

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Sure will all the way to the middle of next month.  The rate its going there might be 1 or 2 in the makings between the beginning and middle of April. Don't know why but April won't get out of my head

 

 

 

But anyway back on topic. The 12z euro says not much to see here for 23/24th. Temps too warm aloft but its probably out to lunch considering this is another anafrontal system. It would possibly imply rain to rain/sleet for northern sections. 18z nam is crap anyway... moving the precip in the wrong direction. So time to wait for happy hour goofus.

 

 

 

12z Euro is a very impressive run for NC snow fans. Don't get too excited (or upset) at this point... models all over the place.

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12z Euro is a very impressive run for NC snow fans. Don't get too excited (or upset) at this point... models all over the place.

 

 

 

Thats referring to the big system. Overall all the models indicating over running precip ahead of the main low. In actuallity it maybe 1 or 2 small systems(23rd/24th/25th) before the bigger system(25th/26th).

 

Euro actually shows one wave the 23rd what I was talking about. GFS  shows 3 impluses in the flow aloft.

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It could be its happy hour GFS or not. But the 23rd system is still there and the 25th.

 

But GFS has been insisting snow/wintry mix developing in the morning of the 23rd... Sunday. Shows precip moving in transitioning as colder air moves into the Northern Half of NC including the triad and triangle. 

 

gfs_namer_096_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic.

He could still factor in his demographic without screwing us though. He may be counting on climo to some extent. The SE is not really favored for snow in late March, and the storm is still many days away. I'm just speculating though.

Personally, the safest bet is the NW NC piedmont to the NE of there at this point, even though the Euro looks nice. If it keeps looking nice, I'll maybe kick in the big blind. :)

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I admit, this potential has gotten my attention. If the models show this on Saturday, then I will give us a pretty good chance of seeing some wintry precip. However, there are a lot of runs to go before that time. I like the suppressed look. You don't want to be in the "bulls-eye" at this stage.

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What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic.

00z Canadian and NAVGEM from today and the 12z Euro from yesterday and a few GFS runs. That L in the screen shot is huge and if you look at the line to the right of the L it's going way out to sea...that area of snow he thinks is where the cold air stops, haha...which isn't a bad guess...models could be overdoing the cold both with the high pressure out west and the CAD feeding high to the north that's moving out.

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What model shows that track???? He is obviously factoring in his demographic.

That's what I'm saying ! The map he showed with his picture. It's the same demographic they always show, until its snowing somewhere else! They must teach that well, JB still does it ! LOL!

The models look good for the Carolina's , especially NC

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I wouldn't at all be shocked if that Accuweather depiction does end up being correct.  The problem is that this is Accuweather and we cannot trust anything they come out with when it deals with the major I-95 cities, everyone else be damned.  If you'll notice, coincidentally, every single city on the I-95 megalopolis from Richmond to the Canadian border is shaded in snow.  Maybe it's a coincidence, but I'm skeptical...

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I'm in! If it fails to materialize I want track another winter weather event until next November!

Speaking of November think about this winter, the ground was covered in Asheboro on The morning of November 13th. Look at all that has transpired since that time. Multiple record cold events. Everyone going above their seasonal snowfall averages. But I tell you if mby gets a accumulating snowfall early next week, I will remember this March and the 4 events as the most phenomenal aspect.

Regardless of climo and really common sense, it just feels like we can't loose anymore. Maybe it's because it's late March and our expectations are in check with reality. In other words we are playing with house money now. If it happens great, if not none of us would really be surprised and just happily move on along to the garden,fishing hole, golf course e.t.c. But oh to see it just pound snow one more good time. Forget the 1inch stuff, I want a early spring Rocky Mountain snow bomb type deal.

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From WXSouth:

Updated the extended outlook...if you're a monthly member, you should have been notified via email (if you chose that option). Be sure to check your spam folder. Yes, another Winter Storm looks likely, and I'm leaning that it will be further south and west than Even the European shows right now (explained why in discussion). The strong divergence is massive on both GFS and ECMWF on Monday in the Plains so this argues for supressed track but northern stream to dominate and initiate the cyclogenesis process along the Gulf Coast. Two big highs are in place, and crashing heights aloft argue for dynamic cooling to snow levels even further south than Models show right now, including down to Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia before ending possibly. Could be a Major Storm along the East Coast if all ingredients come together perfectly, and the models are trying to tell us that because various runs have shown an extremely deep cyclone bombing just off the East Coast. Very interesting storm coming up,one that will have several twists to it. More snow, ice, wind coming in for beleagered MidAtlantic for sure, but this time probably having more effects further inland and southwest to encompass the TN Valley region and southern Apps as well. Major Cold, record cold, will follow the storm. I'd refrain from jump starting any early gardening just yet, pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the country.

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Well I'd love nothing more than for it to come to fruition but I have zero confidence for any of it for the upstate (west of Gaffney/Rock Hill). Despite the historic winter for most, it has really only been so-so for my area. Sounds like it has been a great winter for NC northward, but for us in NEGA and upstate the screw job has really been in play. I can see more cold rain for us, but I think I have a better chance of scratching off the winning powerball number while on a date with Kate Uptown, just before lighting strikes from one side with a meteorite bearing down from the other, just as Wofford is hoisting their NCAA national championship trophy, as I do of seeing any snow here in the western upstate.   :snowing:

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From WXSouth:

Updated the extended outlook...if you're a monthly member, you should have been notified via email (if you chose that option). Be sure to check your spam folder. Yes, another Winter Storm looks likely, and I'm leaning that it will be further south and west than Even the European shows right now (explained why in discussion). The strong divergence is massive on both GFS and ECMWF on Monday in the Plains so this argues for supressed track but northern stream to dominate and initiate the cyclogenesis process along the Gulf Coast. Two big highs are in place, and crashing heights aloft argue for dynamic cooling to snow levels even further south than Models show right now, including down to Birmingham, Atlanta, Columbia before ending possibly. Could be a Major Storm along the East Coast if all ingredients come together perfectly, and the models are trying to tell us that because various runs have shown an extremely deep cyclone bombing just off the East Coast. Very interesting storm coming up,one that will have several twists to it. More snow, ice, wind coming in for beleagered MidAtlantic for sure, but this time probably having more effects further inland and southwest to encompass the TN Valley region and southern Apps as well. Major Cold, record cold, will follow the storm. I'd refrain from jump starting any early gardening just yet, pretty much anywhere in the eastern half of the country.

Robert has been one of the best this winter.Back in Dec when the storms were App runners he told us the truth .Also he said with time the storm track would drop south and go up the east coast. 

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Just saw Emily Byrd on FOX8  News .She says rain and 42 for high temp Tues .Mon& Wed 50's.She did say may have to watch morning temps for Tues but that's all.Said temps would cool behind front.Not cold cool. If memory serves me correct,and it does this time, she forcasted a mild winter for NC back in December.

Yes she did. Van Denton is the best on ch8

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RNK 2pm Discussion ...

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BY DIVERGE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN.
TREND FROM BOTH STILL FAVORS A SHOT OF WINTRY WX PERHAPS NEXT
TUESDAY AS COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE WITH SRN LOW FORMING ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SHIFTING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SUPRESSING THIS WITH NRN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD NOSING INTO SRN
VA...WITH BULK OF MOISTURE STAYING OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST. FOR NOW
WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE NEXT TUESDAY.

PRIOR TO THIS...WILL SEE ONE FRONT EXITED BY SATURDAY
EVENING...STALLING OUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOME DIFFERENCE IN
GFS/ECMWF AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST STATES...PULLING MOISTURE BACK
NORTH. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SRN CWA POSSIBLE...WHILE
AN NRN STREAM WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE NRN CWA. THIS WAVE RETURNS THE COLDER
THAN NORMAL AIR INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY...WITH BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIR ARRIVES BY MONDAY.

SFC HIGH BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY MORNING INTO NEW ENGLAND
MONDAY NIGHT. INTERACTION BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM AND DEVELOPMENT
OF SRN STREAM LOW WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR TUESDAYS EVENING. 

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 I had seen several posts from James about the early 70's having several NC winter storms in late March. I already had known about the major 3/25-6/71 SE storm affecting GA/SC/NC. I hadn't known about any other winter storms in the early 70's because ATL/SAV hadn't received any sig. wintry precip. However, I just finished researching old late March daily data for 1972-4 and found that they all produced sig. wintry precip. in the piedmont of NC in late March: 3/25-6/71, 3/25/72, 3/21/73, and 3/25/74. Even more amazing is that the 3/25-6 period produced sig to major wintry precip. during the 3/25-6 period during three years of that four year period!! (Aside: there was also a big snow 3/24/1983.) By the way, at GSO, there was also moderate ZR on 3/23/1989 and 1.2" of SN at GSO on 3/30/2003.

 

 With there being a progged threat for late 3/24 through 3/25, perhaps this has an even better chance than even I had realized based on this climo pattern, especially for NC and extra especially for GSO.

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