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March 25-26 storm potential


Mitchel Volk

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I thought the lesson here was not to go ga ga up to 2-3 days before.

 

Looks nice, granted, but aren't we jumping the gun?

 

I want 12-18 inches too with this one, but I'll wait Saturday to get excited, a lot can happen between now and then, at least that is what I have learned from here.

 

The only two Storms that were almost guaranteed 5 days in advance almost without doubt were the blizzard of February 1978 and the Superstorm of 1993.

 

And Yes, NYC has had a blizzard warning in April, that was in 1982 and we even had a winter storm warning on April 19th, 1983 with 2-4 inches accumulating.

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Past couple of days the EURO would show a good storm at 12z, only to back off somewhat at 00z. Hope thats not the case tonight. The models today other than the GFS, has been slowing down that kicker out west leading to a closer to the coast solution. After seeing the EURO and Canadian, my confidence is starting to grow on this storm. Like Mr. G would say in this situation: " Will we have some snow or SOME SNOW! :mapsnow:

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I thought the lesson here was not to go ga ga up to 2-3 days before.

 

Looks nice, granted, but aren't we jumping the gun?

 

I want 12-18 inches too with this one, but I'll wait Saturday to get excited, a lot can happen between now and then, at least that is what I have learned from here.

 

The only two Storms that were almost guaranteed 5 days in advance almost without doubt were the blizzard of February 1978 and the Superstorm of 1993.

 

And Yes, NYC has had a blizzard warning in April, that was in 1982 and we even had a winter storm warning on April 19th, 1983 with 2-4 inches accumulating.

It's way too early to get excited. The Euro is a possibility, that's all. So is a sheared out disaster that ends up for the fishes, or a too late phase that favors only eastern New England.

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Are comparisons to March 01' completely unfounded?

 

BTW thanks for contributing to this forum. We really need more red taggers like you.

Thanks.

 

First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however,  differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge.  I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy.

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I agree but I have said all along that if the models are correct with their E Pac forecast and the ridge develops with some amplitude out west, this has a higher than normal chance of coming west.

100% agree, Earthlight. We need to wait a couple more days when better sampling comes into play to see if that E Pac forecast holds. Trying to temper excitement down, but if the timing is right and this vort were to fully phase with the PV and ride the BM, LOOK OUT!!!

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Will the curse of Friday's 12z runs take this completely away?

The "curse" would come with the Sun 12z runs since this is a Tues-Wed storm instead of Sun-Mon like the past 2. Saturday should have us all excited at 96 hr only to have the energy come ashore and be sampled overnite.

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Thanks.

 

First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however,  differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge.  I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy.

 

Are you young or were not living in the area at the time? March 2001 is the bust version of Jan-96 or March-93. Legendary bust. 

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Thanks.

 

First off, I will be completely honest and tell you I'm not that familiar with this event. I did take a look into it just now and I wouldn't say they're "completely unfounded". I will say there are some notable similarities in the upper level pattern, however,  differences do exist in the orientation/amplitude of the upper level long wave trough and ridge.  I don't find this very useful as an analog. To me, at the very least one would have to take everything and shift it south and east by quite a bit, particularly at its early stages. Additionally this system seems as though it will have more northern stream, PV interaction than the march 2001 event, leading to a much smoother phase, which will result in a signficantly deeper system. That system was more of a "forced redevelopment" due to a vigorous and broad upper level low, whereas this system will remain the same "entity" if you will, but gradually phase in more energy.

Thanks for your input and analysis, obviously March 01' was not favorable for this sub forum.

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The "curse" would come with the Sun 12z runs since this is a Tues-Wed storm instead of Sun-Mon like the past 2. Saturday should have us all excited at 96 hr only to have the energy come ashore and be sampled overnite.

If it's any consolation DCA would be screwed along with us this time, there has only been a handful of miller As to destroy DC and miss us

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Are you young or were not living in the area at the time? March 2001 is the bust version of Jan-96 or March-93. Legendary bust. 

 

 

I was young, but old enough to remember; and I've lived on LI my entire life. Perhaps because it was such a bust I subconciously blotted it out of my long term memory lol.

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I was young, but old enough to remember; and I've lived on LI my entire life. Perhaps because it was such a bust I subconciously blotted it out of my long term memory lol.

I could see that!  the mere mention of March 2001 sends shivers down the spine of anyone on this subforum and it was even worse in Philly/DC where less than an inch fell despite 2-3 day predictions of 1-2 feet...models just kept shifting 50-75 miles north and east with each run....made sense given climo and that phases are often late vs early

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I had 10 inches here and it went up the east and dropped sharply to the west....  LI was about the same, 8-12 inches central and 12-18 east.   I'd consider that ok to great normally, but given the hype even a foot was a disappointment.

Nassau County had 3-5" from March 2001. The heavy amounts didn't start until about a third of the way through Suffolk County. I was young then but it was still a huge disappointment.

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