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Mitchel Volk

March 25-26 storm potential

1,110 posts in this topic

0Z EURO OP shows just 2-4" SNOW in NYC bet. 144-156hrs. and looks a little north of earlier runs.

Note: Our climatological winter ends March 23 but in the mid-west it ended Mar. 12. The climatological seasons differ by station location. Even if it is colder in the mid-west the coldest quarter (bottom 25% of all 365 days arranged by daily mean, high to low) of the year is shorter than here because of the nearby ocean heat content. Astronomatical and Meteorological (Dec.,Jan.,Feb.) Seasons are the same at all NH stations.

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The 6z DGEX literally has a NW to SE oriented snowstorm, from OH to the Outer Banks. NE of Baltimore is high and dry. :lol:

Congrats Mid Atlantic lol

f150.gif

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I might be wrong, the ensembles had this s/e of the benchmark yesterday. Did it trend more n/w on this latest run? Thanks

The mean ticked NW from yesterday, my post was based on looking at the 50 individual members. The control run also shifted a few hundred miles west last night.

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Do you have me on ignore? Because you've repeated almost every one of my posts today on this topic.

Nope. I didn't see you post the control run.

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This looked better on the prior two runs than it did on this run.  The mean has actually been gradually working east, not west.  It had Northern NJ down for 5 inches of snow on the prior two runs and 4 inches on this morning's run because it ticked east a hair.

More members had bigger hits this run. The spread is just narrowing.

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I should have corrected to inside 3 days not 4. If the pac can slow a bit and you get just enough retrogragression of the PV then you can pull the trough axis west just enough.

The euro ensembles were still east this morning so I didn't like seeing that.

You just need a step west not a giant leap maybe today is the day you start to see it. We will see.

 

The true test will be what the models are showing when the energy comes ashore on Saturday. Just maybe the

first heavy precip event last night since February 13th might be signaling that the over 1 month long dry pattern

is ready to break. We will see.

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The true test will be what the models are showing when the energy comes ashore on Saturday. Just maybe the

first heavy precip event last night since February 13th might be signaling that the over 1 month long dry pattern

is ready to break. We will see.

100 perc in this camp . 

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100 perc in this camp .

What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this?

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What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this?

 

It could also be that it happens to usually be around 72-84 hours ahead of our storm time. Those times coincide

with the closer range for beginning to get some better storm details as the model scores get high enough

for more confidence. But sometimes like 4-15-07 models lock in at around 8 days out and hold serve

which is rarer. 

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What i cant comprehend unless i am missing something is that its not like data is sparce once it gets to the coastline. Im sayin this because recently the models have been changing the forecasts once energy is on shore and in some cases in more than noticable differences. What is causing this?

 

There are  no weather stations in the middle of the ocean to supply data, so the models have to rely more on satellite derived data when the disturbance is over the ocean.  

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It could just be that it happens to usually be around 72-84 hours ahead of our storm time. Those times coincide

with the closer range for beginning to get some better storm details as the model scores get high enough

for more confidence.

What i meant chris was that some seasons even if the pacific wave was still offshore when it did come onshore it didnt really affect the outcome of the storm on the EC as some of the instances this year.

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still think the front on Sunday will dive too far south so when the storm forms and the trough is tilted positive to eventually neutral the storm will also be further south and then move east - northeast too far south of us and off the coast - areas to the south that were hit by the last 2 storms will have the snowstorm and we will basically be left out ....

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The PV is also pushing it further south tho...

No, a piece of the PV attempts to break off and phase in, it's the only thing that's giving this an even remote chance of turning the corner hard. We need the PV to completely break off and phase in and faster than what is being shown.

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Another disappointing GFS run. We need the trough to sharpen a lot more than what is currently being advertised.

Not dissapointing at all with a lot of time to go. Is that a norlun for NYC at 138-141?

 

Anyway, alright run for the coast.

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Good luck with that

Good luck with what? People are making it seem that this is the final solution. This run wasn't that far away from a bigger storm for our area. The coast still gets some snow.

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Good luck with what? People are making it seem that this is the final solution. This run wasn't that far away from a bigger storm for our area. The coast still gets some snow.

This can't turn the corner fast enough if the phase doesn't occur faster and so far I've seen nothing that indicates that it's a good possibility.

 

We have to hope here that the southern stream wave ends up much more amped up than what the GFS has.

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Mt Holly
 

 

DETAILS ARE FAR FROM
BEING ETCHED IN STONE AS THE MODELS DONT EVEN AGREE ON WHICH
FEATURE IS GOING TO BE TROF "THE DIGGER". THE ECMWF IS STILL
EMPHASIZING A SHORT WAVE EMANATING FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER SIBERIA,
WHILE THE GFS AND CAN GGEM ARE TYING THEIR HORSES TO THE CLOSED
LOW IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN NORTH OF SIBERIA. REGARDLESS OF WHICH ONE
YOU LIKE, BOTH FEATURES ARE GOING TO MAKE A PASS CLOSE TO THE
NORTH POLE AND THERE ARE NOT MANY RAOB SITES THAT WAY. WE ARE
PROBABLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE 12Z RUN ON SATURDAY TO
GET THESE TRIGGERS INTO THE DENSER RAOB SOUNDING NETWORKS

 

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