danstorm Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The system is not at our latitude until hour 120. DAY 5. You are discussing things like we are inside of 48 hours. Calm down. P.S. 12z UKMET is super amped up, which is a great sign for the UKMET at hour 120: I think y'all mean longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 for it to snow and stick during the day in late March or April it has to be very cold like 1970 and 1982 storms...2003 was a daylight event and temps were just below freezing and it stuck anyway...That was a cold winter and maybe the ground wasn't fully thawed out like this year so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Can also do with the depth of the cloud deck. for it to snow and stick during the day in late March or April it has to be very cold like 1970 and 1982 storms...2003 was a daylight event and temps were just below freezing and it stuck anyway...That was a cold winter and maybe the ground wasn't fully thawed out like this year so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The WPC discussion is probably based on the "fringe" idea. The light stuff on the fringes will have trouble. does this look like areas east of the APPS are on the fringe ? argue with WPC - let me know who wins http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 as though any of you understand convective parameterization As if you understand the diffusivity equation. D'Arcy's law and mass balances and can understand three phase fluid flow through porous, heterogeneous and anisotropic media. Not that I do. Why oil companies pay for reservoir modeling software.. But my profs sort of did. No forums of interested amateurs for engineering, obviously. But in a serious vein, regarding 'convective feedback' on the modeling and my layman's understanding how superior resolution tends to reduce convective feedback issues, even some Euro solutions have shown it, and the more intense low is closer to the Gulf Stream. Phil made a comment in the SNE subforum, I asked the question, I don't think he ever saw it. Any red tagger or Don Sutherland grade super-amateur- why couldn't this develop a warm core low from convective feedback. And, if HM thinks that would promote a more Westward track, why is that? And does anybody think we can get the type of Winter storm that on visible looks like it has an eye like feature? Love those. (IR, not so good, all the color North of the center). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A) A 955 mb winter storm never hits this area and won't be hitting this area. B ) Where was the beach? Maine? C) It doesn't matter, this is going to miss east and I congratulate any meteorologist (irrespective of what HM might say) that is willing to make a stand and use objective reasoning to make a claim and call this a miss for the NYC metro (LI is still up for debate). And if in the low probability this is a MECS for NYC proper, I would HATE to be THAT meteorologist who spoke with such difinity, 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is a bit further west this run and stronger with the low, some sort of consensus forming as it would appear to be losing some of the more extreme solutions in both directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 GGEM looks amazing (if you focus on everything but the precip panel).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is a bit further west this run and stronger with the low, some sort of consensus forming as it would appear to be losing some of the more extreme solutions in both directions. If this winter has taught us anything its that consensus 4 days out does not exist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is a case where we can get away with a crappy looking western ridge. The GGEM went negative tilt 6 hours later than what we would have needed. Look how much more the 700mb low is tucked into the coast though? This is either a largely tilted system or the track of the 500mb features will eventually end up closer to the coast than currently projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 A) A 955 mb winter storm never hits this area and won't be hitting this area. B ) Where was the beach? Maine? C) It doesn't matter, this is going to miss east and I congratulate any meteorologist (irrespective of what HM might say) that is willing to make a stand and use objective reasoning to make a claim and call this a miss for the NYC metro (LI is still up for debate). A.) all 3 global models show a sub 960mb low passing east of the benchmark, so never say never, it only takes a 50-100 mile shift westB. where were you for the October 2012 snowstorm ?? 5" at bdr on the water during the day C) any meteorologist that makes a stand and says it will be a miss would look like a genius if they are right but pretty dumb making a call this early if they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I'd think at some point extreme snowfall rates, esecially *not* on dark surfaces like pavement, would trump the amount of through cloud insolation. I've though the same thing about mid-Winter storms with surface temps 2 or 4ºF above freezing, a tenth or two in six hours probably melts before it can accumulate, an inch in six hours probably sticks pretty well (even if pasty and low ratio) at 36 or 37ºF. I would think even whether p-type is cold rain or snow would be affected by precip intensity at marginal surface temps. Just using common sense. No book learning involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If this winter has taught us anything its that consensus 4 days out does not exist It equates to less spread amongst the individual ensemble members which is reflected by a stronger low pressure system. 12z Also has more members leaning west than 06z which is a good sign. We probably lost more members this run that were way out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean is a bit further west this run and stronger with the low, some sort of consensus forming as it would appear to be losing some of the more extreme solutions in both directions. This takes a BM track its going to be an absolute beast. One thing that hasnt been touched upon besides snowfall is the winds this would produce, possiblt 60mph+ on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We do not need a model thread at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This takes a BM track its going to be an absolute beast. One thing that hasnt been touched upon besides snowfall is the winds this would produce, possiblt 60mph+ on the coast It would be an awesome storm to be down here for if it hits at full potential. Boxing Day and even the 2/25/10 storms were great here for high wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We do not need a model thread at this juncture. So it looks like the other thread is gone and all discussion in here, correct? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 So it looks like the other thread is gone and all discussion in here, correct? Thanks! They were merged I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 If this winter has taught us anything its that consensus 4 days out does not exist We'll see. I don't think any model has dropped a storm idea and brought it back with this possible event yet. I could be wrong tho. This might have some consensus for a storm of some type not getting into location and strength topics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We'll see. I don't think any model has dropped a storm idea and brought it back with this possible event yet. I could be wrong tho. This might have some consensus for a storm of some type not getting into location and strength topics. I meant an exact or approximate solution. Even if every model showed the exact same thing I wouldn't latch on until inside 72 hours at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 It would be an awesome storm to be down here for if it hits at full potential. Boxing Day and even the 2/25/10 storms were great here for high wind. Boxing day had some of the highest winds during a snowstorm ive experienced. This really bombs and hits the BM my bet is the winds would rival it on the coast handely, not very often a Miller A of this magnitude threatens out area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ukie shows a 973 west of the benchmark with H5 closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is all I needed to see in order to increase my confidence that the track will come NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 PNA due to spike towards neutral beginning tomorrow. I think the models will start to feel that out no later than tomorrow. Should see a corresponding, gradual increase in the amplitude of the ridge out west. If we dont see this trending slightly west by tomorrow, well then I think everyone except the coast should start getting concerned about a near-miss. Still too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is all I needed to see in order to increase my confidence that the track will come NW Im not concerned whatsoever with the GFS at this stage. We all know in here what model(s) to use to track Miller A's. IMO the navgem like you posted should put to bed some of the OTS preachers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im not concerned whatsoever with the GFS at this stage. We all know in here what model(s) to use to track Miller A's. IMO the navgem like you posted should put to bed some of the OTS preachers I'll be mildly concerned if the ECMWF makes a drastic tick in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This takes a BM track its going to be an absolute beast. One thing that hasnt been touched upon besides snowfall is the winds this would produce, possiblt 60mph+ on the coast I think this would need to be slightly closer than the BM to produce 60+ mph winds on the coast. Eastern LI and possibly the Cape maybe but I don't think winds that high make it that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is a case where we can get away with a crappy looking western ridge. The GGEM went negative tilt 6 hours later than what we would have needed. Look how much more the 700mb low is tucked into the coast though? This is either a largely tilted system or the track of the 500mb features will eventually end up closer to the coast than currently projected. All mid-latitude cyclones are tilted vertically... toggling between height levels this one seems about standard as progged, at least from what I've studied in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Those of us more seasoned posters and weather enthusiasts know that we go through this sort of thing with nearly every coastal storm. I've seen us recover from far worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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