SnoSki14 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Ultimately none of these runs matter until all the data is on the table. For now the waffling will continue as it should at days 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hr 132 on the euro has one low well Se of the bm...Kinda looks just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 5 days away now...still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Euro is east but looks to have 2 lows like the GGEM. Still early to say where the track will be. Nice run. Well right now I rather have it a bit East than too far west as it usually will track west anyway in most cases so better for wiggle room as we get closer. If it starts moving any more South/East next couple days than I will lose hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Negative, totally blew the last storm. Always over amped it has been good in a lot of cases this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Kinda looks just like the GFS. Except this run tried to go back west like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Definitely a step back from 12z Long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Any estimate of how much QPF gets into the area on the Euro? Is it light like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Definitely a step back from 12z Long way to go Yes it seems better at 12z, worse at 0z. Hopefully Euro will latch on in the next couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Any estimate of how much QPF gets into the area on the Euro? Is it light like the GFS? Scrapes most with a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCsnowfiend Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey guys I got snow map out already for the weenies... http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/connect/photos/photo?albumid=62&groupid=40&photoid=104 Or www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/connect/photos/album?albumid=62&groupid=40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Mainly due to the ridge axis out west I've been going with an ots solution right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Im starting to notice something someone said about the euro this morning.. with this storm the euro takes it away on the 0z runs and then brings it back on the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Hey guys I got snow map out already for the weenies... http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/connect/photos/photo?albumid=62&groupid=40&photoid=104 Or www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php/connect/photos/album?albumid=62&groupid=40 12" to 24" of snow for Long Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pretty sharp move OTS on the Euro Ensembles....still a glancing blow but nothing like the jacked up 12z run from yesterday. If it holds through 0z tonight or worsens, well then there's your solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 We missed the two March snows to our south already, along with the Regulus star blackout yesterday morning due to clouds. We should have an OTS blizzard for the last blow this month. At least the mega cold pattern appears to end in 6 -7 days, and replaced with 50's for highs more consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Pretty sharp move OTS on the Euro Ensembles....still a glancing blow but nothing like the jacked up 12z run from yesterday. If it holds through 0z tonight or worsens, well then there's your solution.... emoticons can say a 1000 words.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 emoticons can say a 1000 words.... I wouldn't get too worked up over it yet, there are still some very heavy hitters on the individual Euro Ens members and the mean is still a nice event 6" plus for NYC Metro, so it's pins and needles for the next couple runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I wouldn't get too worked up over it yet, there are still some very heavy hitters on the individual Euro Ens members and the mean is still a nice event 6" plus for NYC Metro, so it's pins and needles for the next couple runs.... This month feels like the movie groundhogs day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This month feels like the movie groundhogs day... Lol, yes indeed. We need to see the front running piece of vorticity that is on the the big 3 to wash out or slow down and jump in the deep trough for this one to deliver the goods. Very tempered expectations at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is encouraging.. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATETUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICADURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE.THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLARFRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THENORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PARTAND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THEBACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW.SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERNRECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURINGTHE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURALBAROCLINIC INSTABILITY.ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTSUP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA ANINJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDINGTHE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THEATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THISPARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENSMEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAMEPAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWNHIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMSTO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCHOF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASONHEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TONEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS INTERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACTFACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING,INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTALFLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLEWEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH ASTORM.THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWESTCONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THETHICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES ORRESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST.CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 This is encouraging.. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1253 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 VALID 12Z MON MAR 24 2014 - 12Z FRI MAR 28 2014 ...NOR'EASTER BOMB INDICATED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH THE REESTABLISHMENT OF CROSS-POLAR FLOW INTO NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BAROCLINICITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE. THE LATE-MARCH SUN CONTINUES TO WARM AREAS SOUTH OF THE POLAR FRONT, WITH THE INFUSION OF NEARLY UNMODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THIS THERMAL CONTRAST IS, OF COURSE, PART AND PARCEL OF THE JET STREAM, WHICH IN TURN PROVIDES THE BACKGROUND ENERGY FOR THE PERTURBATIONS WENDING THROUGH THE FLOW. SOME OF THE DEEPEST EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES IN MODERN RECORD-KEEPING HAVE AFFECTED THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH--THEIR GENESIS AFFORDED BY THE MONTH'S NATURAL BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY. ONCE SUCH PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO GROW VIGOROUSLY AS IT LIFTS UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY MORNING, THEN BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN THE JET STRENGTHENS VIA AN INJECTION OF ARCTIC AIR FROM THE MIDWEST. MANY MODELS--INCLUDING THE 00Z/21 GFS--DEEPEN THE OCEAN STORM BELOW 970MB NEAR THE ATLANTIC BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THIS PARTICULAR SET OF MANUAL PROGS, RELIED ON THE MOST RECENT ECENS MEAN FOR A BEARING, SINCE NOT ALL THE GUIDANCE WAS YET ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE PARTICULARS OF THE CYCLONE. THE ECENS MEAN HAS SHOWN HIGH SKILL AT THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH SURFACE PRESSURES, AND SEEMS TO OFTEN ARRIVE AT A STABLE SOLUTION A DAY OR SO SOONER THAN MUCH OF THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE EAST-COAST CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LATE-SEASON HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF REAL ESTATE FROM VIRGINIA TO NEW ENGLAND; THAT IS A GENERALITY AT THIS POINT. MUCH REMAINS IN TERMS OF REFINING THE FORECAST STATE BY STATE. ANOTHER HIGH-IMPACT FACTOR WILL BE THE POWERFUL WINDS GENERATED BY THIS SPRAWLING, INTENSE CIRCULATION, ALONG WITH HIGH SEAS, BEACH BATTERY, COASTAL FLOODING, AND SO FORTH. AGAIN, AT THIS POINT, SUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS ARE SIMPLY ATTENDANT TO THE POTENTIAL OF SUCH A STORM. THE WEST WILL BE A TALE OF TWO REGIONS, WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUING A HIGH-N-DRY STREAK, AND THE NORTHWEST BACK IN THE THICK OF ONSHORE FLOW. UNTIL THE OVERALL PATTERN RELAXES OR RESHUFFLES, WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE WEST. CISCO Unfortunately, this was created before the last European model run. I really don't understand why they would work all this up just before the best model runs. Talk about idiotic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Unfortunately, this was created before the last European model run. I really don't understand why they would work all this up just before the best model runs. Talk about idiotic. Yeah, policy is policy. I think we'll have a good idea by the 0z runs tonight if this one is for real, but overnight runs were very discouraging, to say the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I dont really think it is idiotic. They are basically saying the possibility is there and they are not going to let one run dictate what they say 5 days out. Im sure they know the euro has been swinging back and forth between the 0z and 12z runs as has been stated in here. They are probably riding the GGem for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 I dont really think it is idiotic. They are basically saying the possibility is there and they are not going to let one run dictate what they say 5 days out. Im sure they know the euro has been swinging back and forth between the 0z and 12z runs as has been stated in here. They are probably riding the GGem for now. You don't think it is idiotic to put out a statement that is so official for the entire country that is only produced once a day, one hour before the model with the highest accuracy runs? This is pretty much why we also have the model with the lowest degree of accuracy of any of the major models too, because we are ok with settling for things that don't make sense, just because. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 06z gfs looks similar to 0z a little less amped from what i can see from my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 The Euro run pattern continues with the 12z closer in to the coast and 0z more OTS for the last several days. The important runs will be coming up in the next few days to see what the Euro finally settles on. The key to watch for will be the first 12z run that is more OTS or the first 0Z that is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Guess we all forgot that the models wont have complete sampling till 12z/0z saturday huh? Relax people models are going to waver back and forth, chris thanks for reminding everyone here as well the pattern of the 12z/0z EURO. Lets all take a deep breathe and just take it easy till tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 You don't think it is idiotic to put out a statement that is so official for the entire country that is only produced once a day, one hour before the model with the highest accuracy runs? This is pretty much why we also have the model with the lowest degree of accuracy of any of the major models too, because we are ok with settling for things that don't make sense, just because. Actually..no,I dont. Yes, its an official statement but it doesnt say anything is set in stone. They see the capability of this one. They just arent putting any stock into any given model run 5 days out. I will tell you this.. It was late at night and the Weenie inside Cisco got the best of him!! Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2014 Share Posted March 21, 2014 Guess we all forgot that the models wont have complete sampling till 12z/0z saturday huh? Relax people models are going to waver back and forth, chris thanks for reminding everyone here as well the pattern of the 12z/0z EURO. Lets all take a deep breathe and just take it easy till tommorow The best we can probably say right now is that all the models are suggesting a rapidly deepening cyclone will be somewhere off the coast next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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