weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The odds of suppression like this happening three times in march has got to be astronomically low. Which is why this has to be looked at as an extension of february rather than your typical meteorlogical march chris We saw 3 of them in 2010, though the first did allow some 10 inches to creep north. Eventually the pattern broke but we still had some winter left. we don't now. I am not bullish on this storm it would be a freak occurrence. What are the odds of 3 freak storms in 3 years ( Snowtober, Sandy, and this?) This storm will find a way to fall apart. And I dare say many people will be glad for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 It's either OTS or close to the coast, not exactly suppression where the snow stays south and gets eaten up by dry air as it tries to come north. This is what we've seen this month, however this is a coastal storm so things are not the same as the other storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 thing that really is bugging me is mods make rules around here about storm threads not being created till 5 days prior then when it happens they allow it and to top it off we have to put up with people saying there is a chance of a crippling blizzard and we have zero confidence that we will even see a flake - wake up pal To clarify, look at the ensembles of the EURO/GFS and GGEM. Some of the members do show quite a storm for our area, hence why i said it could produce a crippling blizzard and you know what? The pattern can do just that next week. Yes, what i said was pure speculation and was in no way a sure bet, but it is well within the realm of possibilities. with the PV once again looking to put in its $.02 we'll have to once again worry about suppression among other things like the pacific ridging and the atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 To clarify, look at the ensembles of the EURO/GFS and GGEM. Some of the members do show quite a storm for our area, hence why i said it could produce a crippling blizzard and you know what? The pattern can do just that next week. Yes, what i said was pure speculation and was in no way a sure bet, but it is well within the realm of possibilities. with the PV once again looking to put in its $.02 we'll have to once again worry about suppression among other things like the pacific ridging and the atlantic ok fair enough we will see what happens on verification day next week - ok ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 ok fair enough we will see what happens on verification day next week - ok ? Deal! so if it misses to the south should i expect some ribbing from your behalf then? Didnt want to start anything i was just stating a possibility and yes end of march it does sound like a far fetched weenie dream, but the pattern isnt like march is all i was trying to say buddy. Lets let the chips fall where they fall then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I agree that suppression is not really the appropriate word in this case. Progression is a better fit IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I don't believe, correct me if I'm wrong though, that much of any guidance shows a miss south. It is a miss east that is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I did a lot of statistical research and methodology in grad school and here's the thing I like: generally speaking, the last three or four systems that went OTS were touted early as gold. Statistically, every whiff, although a discreet event, increases the odds that sooner or later things will gravitate back towards the mean. It happens every week in the NFL. Al Michaels might say "The Seahawks have gone 27 consecutive games without giving up a special teams touchdown." And what happens next: a guy returns a punt for a touchdown. The fact that posters have been so bullish the past several storms and crashed, I think, is cause for optimism. Wow, you need to ask for your money back if you believe that. That is 100% wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Yea it's a miss east so it would be considered too progressive or OTS than a suppressive system. The PV is once again not the problem, it's the flow which is too fast and has no blocking to slow it down. The last storm wasn't a PV issue either, it's how the energy dug too far south into Mexico instead of ejecting east and phasing. Only 3/3 was really a PV problem but only because the storm was so weak that it got overwhelmed by the cold dry air associated with the PV, even places way down south struggled with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 And the so called research method sounds like the law of averages where eventually things will go toward a mean. If you take seasonal snowfall for example, you have highly anomalous years like 2010-2011 and 2009-2010 but then you get 2001-2002 and 2011-2012 and the mean barely changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The models poor performance in the month of March has one common theme. It's been the inability to properly sample the SWs over the PAC. Each of the last 4 systems that wound up being sampled once onto the west coast has been the difference .1 west W and 3 went S . PV aside I will not look at anything seriously until there's land base sampling. That's Gona get us inside 4 days. So while we debate probability and the PV you will not likely to see the envelope close for another 2 days. So pls don't argue over solutions . The fact that a model may miss it's center by 200 miles over 8 days is still acceptable . So you're details will not show up until we are 72 hours out . JMO boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Nam is way north with the 84 hour storm...looks so similar to how some of our best storms this year at this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The models poor performance in the month of March has one common theme. It's been the inability to properly sample the SWs over the PAC. Each of the last 4 systems that wound up being sampled once onto the west coast has been the difference .1 west W and 3 went S . PV aside I will not look at anything seriously until there's land base sampling. That's Gona get us inside 4 days. So while we debate probability and the PV you will not likely to see the envelope close for another 2 days. So pls don't argue over solutions . The fact that a model may miss it's center by 200 miles over 8 days is still acceptable . So you're details will not show up until we are 72 hours out . JMO boys. Right.And all the other winter months....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The models poor performance in the month of March has one common theme. It's been the inability to properly sample the SWs over the PAC. Each of the last 4 systems that wound up being sampled once onto the west coast has been the difference .1 west W and 3 went S . PV aside I will not look at anything seriously until there's land base sampling. That's Gona get us inside 4 days. So while we debate probability and the PV you will not likely to see the envelope close for another 2 days. So pls don't argue over solutions . The fact that a model may miss it's center by 200 miles over 8 days is still acceptable . So you're details will not show up until we are 72 hours out . JMO boys. Very true paul. I would just like to say like you just stated the spacing of S/W's over the pacific has hurt many of our storm chances as well. We've had a handful of storms go to our S&E due to a storm crashing into the west coast as we're trying to get ideal height rises on the EC. Also would like to add the EURO did a pretty spot on job with the last storm as well pretty much not being too enthused about it when some models were starting to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here is the DGEX for hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Very true paul. I would just like to say like you just stated the spacing of S/W's over the pacific has hurt many of our storm chances as well. We've had a handful of storms go to our S&E due to a storm crashing into the west coast as we're trying to get ideal height rises on the EC. Also would like to add the EURO did a pretty spot on job with the last storm as well pretty much not being too enthused about it when some models were starting to be. I should have corrected to inside 3 days not 4. If the pac can slow a bit and you get just enough retrogragression of the PV then you can pull the trough axis west just enough. The euro ensembles were still east this morning so I didn't like seeing that. You just need a step west not a giant leap maybe today is the day you start to see it. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 I should have corrected to inside 3 days not 4. If the pac can slow a bit and you get just enough retrogragression of the PV then you can pull the trough axis west just enough. The euro ensembles were still east this morning so I didn't like seeing that. You just need a step west not a giant leap maybe today is the day you start to see it. We will see. You and john really are the voice of reason around here and have been pretty accurate with your calls and forecasts. This morning i was merely stating potential as this storm has officially got my attention but im not too excited just yet. Our key to this storm is going to be the pacific here, another snippet if that storm at 96 hours decides to come north and hit us what kind of upstream effects would that have for the storm next week? It is food for thought thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Here is the DGEX for hour 90 New nam is going to be very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Can we please keep this thread on topic? We have a general March thread than can take care of Sunday's miss. This is the NAM being way over amped again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Can we please keep this thread on topic? We have a general March thread than can take care of Sunday's miss. This is the NAM being way over amped again. Idk man our best storms all looked like this at the 84 hour mark this year, it needs watching...it will also change some of the synoptics for this storm if it ends up more amped...ill open up a thread if the 12z runs look better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Idk man our best storms all looked like this at the 84 hour mark this year, it needs watching...it will also change some of the synoptics for this storm if it ends up more amped...ill open up a thread if the 12z runs look better The 84 hour NAM is the only model showing this, in any event I'm not saying don't discuss it, just keep it out of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Has anyone seen the 06z NAVGEM? Would certainly argue that this will come well NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 We've obviously learned nothing this month lol. Once the system comes on shore out west and is properly sampled all this is pure map hugging and speculation. Good for discussion but PBP at this point and/or arguing over it is a waste. And correct me if I'm wrong but both Astronomical and meteorological winter will both be over by the time this storm MAY impact us. This would not add to our official total possibly breaking records for this winter. I could be wrong, but I don't think so, November 2013 snow wouldn't count by that criteria either for the record, and I suspect it does. I have no idea if it snowed in November 2013. But I think snow a week or two before/after official Winter 2013-2014 doesn't go in a black hole for snow records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Using KMMU as a reference point here just to give an idea as to how far west the 00z ensembles came, 9 members have 12"+ 17 members have at least 6"+ 11 members had 12"+ at KLGA and 19 members had at least 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Using KMMU as a reference point here just to give an idea as to how far west the 00z ensembles came, 9 members have 12"+ 17 members have at least 6"+ 11 members had 12"+ at KLGA and 19 members had at least 6"+ Which ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Which ensembles? Think he means the ECMWF ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 Which ensembles? ECMWF ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 6z Navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 WPC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE CONVERGED UPON A MORE COMPATABLE/WELL CLUSTERED SOLUTION COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. THIS BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF THE UPCOMING MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN AS AN ERN NOAM MEAN TROUGH AMPLIFIES WELL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN ERN PAC/ALASKA REX BLOCK...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AND WORKING INTO THE WRN US IN BETWEEN. IN THIS PATTERN THERE MEANWHILE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR LATE MARCH. THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR WRN ATLANTIC COASTAL STORM INTENSIFICATION TUE-WED GIVES THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THE HIGHEST THREAT OF MEANINGFUL LATE SEASON SNOW/WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2014 Share Posted March 20, 2014 The 6z DGEX literally has a NW to SE oriented snowstorm, from OH to the Outer Banks. NE of Baltimore is high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.