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Do We have one More in Us?


Damage In Tolland

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Eh, more like miss.

When major networks are using the B word and major forecasters it's a flop. Very few people read this board. People by and large think a major snowstorm is coming. Luckily there's a few days to temper expectations. This one was highly touted and anticipation was growing.

Andy's post doesn't leave a ton of hope for many. Hoping that strength can be maintained earlier for at least a solid brush or this run might be a disastah

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Emerging from lurker mode after a winter of chuckles.  While a whiff for the tri-county area 50 miles wide that the New England Forum seems to focus on, the discussion from NWS Gray still seems to indicate a very decent impact for a large percentage of the New England Coastline.  NWS Caribou is hedging the bets, but still prepared to pull the trigger on a Blizzard Watch for their coastal region.

 

I thank you all for your wide-angled views here on the New England Forum, and will go gas up my snowblower here in Maine (A part of New England since 1640).

 

Returning to lurker mode with tongue firmly frozen in cheek....

Robomaine.

 

From Gray:

BOTH THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURED
SYSTEM...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO PINWHEEL BACK TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MAINE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING EAST AND
OUT TO SEA. FOR NOW...HAVE PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE EURO AND
CANADIAN QPF WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER DEPICTING NO PRECIPITATION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH MORE SNOWFALL ALONG
THE MIDCOAST REGION. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE 5TH/6TH PERIODS WITH THE
PRECIPITATION...SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

WILL STILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE OUR PARTNERS THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS
OF THE STORM POTENTIAL. WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS BUILDING IN THE
WEST...ANY PREMATURE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WOULD
GREATLY CHANGE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
 

 

From Caribou:

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF 50 KNOTS
ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH COMBINED WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL WOULD LEAD TO A BLIZZARD.
 

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Emerging from lurker mode after a winter of chuckles.  While a whiff for the tri-county area 50 miles wide that the New England Forum seems to focus on, the discussion from NWS Gray still seems to indicate a very decent impact for a large percentage of the New England Coastline.  NWS Caribou is hedging the bets, but still prepared to pull the trigger on a Blizzard Watch for their coastal region.

 

I thank you all for your wide-angled views here on the New England Forum, and will go gas up my snowblower here in Maine (A part of New England since 1640).

 

Returning to lurker mode with tongue firmly frozen in cheek....

Robomaine.

 

From Gray:

BOTH THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURED

SYSTEM...ALLOWING THE SURFACE LOW TO PINWHEEL BACK TOWARDS THE

GULF OF MAINE BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE HEADING EAST AND

OUT TO SEA. FOR NOW...HAVE PREFERRED A BLEND OF THE EURO AND

CANADIAN QPF WITH THE NAM AN OUTLIER DEPICTING NO PRECIPITATION

OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BLEND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES

OF SNOW OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH MORE SNOWFALL ALONG

THE MIDCOAST REGION. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE 5TH/6TH PERIODS WITH THE

PRECIPITATION...SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS PACKAGE.

WILL STILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE OUR PARTNERS THROUGH NORMAL CHANNELS

OF THE STORM POTENTIAL. WITH SIGNIFICANT HEIGHTS BUILDING IN THE

WEST...ANY PREMATURE CUTTING OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WOULD

GREATLY CHANGE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

 

 

From Caribou:

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT

DOWNEAST AREAS WILL BE THE HARDEST HIT WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE NAM AND GFS

HAVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LATE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OF 50 KNOTS

ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY WHICH COMBINED WITH HEAVY

SNOWFALL WOULD LEAD TO A BLIZZARD.

 

Lucky bugger.  Next week is prolly yours more than ours, too...

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Nam looks a ton better. Ncep stuff coming back to reality

 

thru 42h h5 ticked west with more ridging west

 

watching the lead vortmax energy... the weaker that is (and the more intense the hangback pieces), the less likely the eastern-most low steals the show

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Noticed the better ridging west of the Divide but still looks like northern short is diving SSE while southern short is going ENE faster.

Ultimately it's just coming towards consensus. Nice to see the "trend" east at least abated here. It's 50-75 miles now between an epic blizzard for some of the cape vs OE and subsidence

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Ultimately it's just coming towards consensus. Nice to see the "trend" east at least abated here. It's 50-75 miles now between an epic blizzard for some of the cape vs OE and subsidence

Don't discount the explosive deepening causing extreme isallobaric tendency/wind to the N by NW of the low cutting back on QP. Also too probably some ratgher intense convection to the S x SE of the LP also "robbing" moisture flux. Happened with the storm here a week ago from this passed Wed.

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at least 50 miles shift west on slp center thru 60h

 

another 50 miles west and Cape has itself a blizzard

 

NAM coming closer to consensus of Euro / GFS

 

still don't trust this run past 48hr... don't see the double-barrel solutions of Euro / GFS... bottomline how the timing and interaction of these pieces of energy rounding the trough is extremely critical and hugely impacts track. hence still not closing the door on dramatic shifts in the rest of the 0z suite or even later.

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Another poster with a sore back from patting himself on it.

Definitely not patting myself on the back, just going with the odds.  No meteorology, just the gut with this. 

Time to move on, and deal with cold, and then a cool Spring, battling the moles in my yard, and eventually cutting the weeds that I call a lawn.

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Definitely not patting myself on the back, just going with the odds.  No meteorology, just the gut with this. 

Time to move on, and deal with cold, and then a cool Spring, battling the moles in my yard, and eventually cutting the weeds that I call a lawn.

Go ahead and pat your back if you called it.

 

I love how no one utters a word to the 00z EURO circle jerk of back patters last night, yet they lie in wait like piranhas for someone to acknowledge that they correctly called a whiff once the bottom falls out.

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