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Do We have one More in Us?


Damage In Tolland

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Where are those coffin nails again...?

But I'll keep open the 12/26/2010 option on the table. We are ridiculously close, just a matter of balancing the relative weight and gyrations of 2-3 multiple pieces of shortwave energy.

Compare 12z (scraper) to 0z Euro (blizzard):

12z

03_23_12z_Euro_850.png

0z

03_23_0z_Euro_850.png

Differences are actually not that big, and EC Ens will be interesting.

At least 3 bowling balls that are gyrating around the rack.

In the 12z run, energy #1 is slightly stronger and energy #3 is slightly weaker --> the eastern-most low dominates much earlier and the subsequent closer to coast low gyrates (literally looks like a fujiwara effect) counterclockwise away from it, consequently scraping SNE.

In the 0z run, energy #1 is slightly weaker and energy #3 is slightly stronger and digs more --> the coast low dominates and tracks near the BM, and only later swings around and consolidates with the eastern low (I believe as energy #2 catches up).

I don't think models are done swinging these around, but window is obviously closing fast with now no serious models (EC Ens?) showing the right interaction.

And none of this spread out / OES qpf nonsense. This will be relatively consolidated imo. We need phasing to work out just right ala 12/26/2010, otherwise we watch Winter 2013-14 dumbbell out of our way goodbye.

Story of many great opportunities this winter. I think it's the lack of blocking. We can't get consolidated energy in time.

we will see how this evolves tonight for the cape but like I said earlier 99% don't care either way once it's a miss west

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Just because there is a monstrous CCB does not preclude accumulating snows on inflow and prior to consolidation. This is not a Les situation. Sure once it wraps tight its over but to just say there will be no precip outside of the CCB is wrong. With 1 inch of qpf less than 40 miles from a lot of peeps its worth watching until nowcast time. Peeps can say they bail until next winter will log in everyday until this ones done,who are they kidding. One thing for sure Jerrys warm March sun day ,cancel

A lot of us drop in regardless of whether we feel we have a shot at snow.
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I'll have to take a before and after picture. Right now we have zero snow on the ground. If the models are right, that will change in a big way come Thursday. Gonna be a wild ride. Could be the biggest storm here since the Jan 2005 blizzard that you all are familiar with.

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I'll have to take a before and after picture. Right now we have zero snow on the ground. If the models are right, that will change in a big way come Thursday. Gonna be a wild ride. Could be the biggest storm here since the Jan 2005 blizzard that you all are familiar with.

My sister in law is in Dartmouth and she says the media are already telling people to get ready.

I asked her if they would call it Son of White Juan.

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I'll have to take a before and after picture. Right now we have zero snow on the ground. If the models are right, that will change in a big way come Thursday. Gonna be a wild ride. Could be the biggest storm here since the Jan 2005 blizzard that you all are familiar with.

Lucky. First Juan, now this. I think thas been the worst ending to winter that I can recall.
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Obviously there is a lack of dependability on any NAM solution beyond 48 ...or even 24 hours in some cases. 

 

That said, this 18z run really rips the band-aide of disappointment pretty quick and clean. No protracted suffering, though there are clearly already a lot of casualties of this war between model fantasies and determinism (again, it's your own fault).

 

That aside ... It's really what you want going forward- clean and clear non event for all. Book it. Close it. Shut down the thread and move on....

 

In fact, there's 46 pages at this point, anyway... I'd say a new thread should be started in the event that this should ever come back, and let this tired trail of aggravation go to h -

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I'll have to take a before and after picture. Right now we have zero snow on the ground. If the models are right, that will change in a big way come Thursday. Gonna be a wild ride. Could be the biggest storm here since the Jan 2005 blizzard that you all are familiar with.

 

60-70 knots in PEI according to GFS.. they've had a rough winter I heard.

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My sister in law is in Dartmouth and she says the media are already telling people to get ready.

I asked her if they would call it Son of White Juan.

Cool, my best friends dad was from Boston. Halifax and Boston have some bonds that go way back. There has been some mention of White Juan but that storm is sacred here so not many believe it will be touched. A lighter version could be in the cards. Like our version of the April fools storm you guys had in 97. We'll see.
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If the storm looks like a go, I'll see if I can post a link to our local weather forum. It's not as busy as here but should have posts and pics in it. Our local mets like Chris Fogerty and Rodney Barney post in it so has some people that know their stuff. That's if it's cool.

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Also want to add -- there's a separate sort of phenomenon about the handling of this mid-week period.

 

No model is beyond reproach; hands down, this has been the worst week of modeling I can remember in recent times ... perhaps, years. At D3.5 the Euro brings nearly a foot of snow at last as far west of ORH, and then, ..we are on the doorstep to nadda.  That's a pretty bad indictment for a tool that boasts some pretty spectacular skill for Days 3 and 4.  

 

However, truth be told, if a big stem-wound bomb rides up NS arse, the models get props for sniffing out a big west Atlantic event. That's been prevalent for ...Jesus, maybe 12 days at his point.  Unfortunately, the state of the art of the technology is still not such that even at Day 3 or 4 we can be outright dependent on even the best tools we have -- that much appears to be proven, just based on the variance between the 00z and 12z operational Euro. 

 

But, usually there is one model that succeeds in a cluster f* argument of plausible solutions ... they old, other models suddenly concede at the last moment.  Right now, if that is going to be the case, the best model to play the role of emerging leader of the pack would have to be the UKMET.  If not, it would be interesting to see NO model have a clue.  

 

I think all this would be boldly underscored if even NS is next to move into a house of cards. 

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