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3/18-3/19 Icy Event


JoshM

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The 00z Euro is further south than last run by 50+ miles with the initial wave.    Looks like C VA gets crushed.  NOVA is fringed.

 

Yikes, big differences between the Euro and the other modeling with precip up in the Mid-Atlantic.  Much further south with the precip shield.  We'll see if round two does us any good.

 

EDIT: Eh, the Euro sucks for all.  I guess those of us closer to the VA border can hope for it to trend south another 50-100 miles in order to put us in the game with round #1, but we're probably pretty close to tip-off time to see big shifts now.

 

Well, the clown gives N NC T-2", so maybe there's some wintry precip in there.  Maybe I'm blind, but I didn't see it, though.  EDIT: Oh, wait, now I see what's going on.  The 00z Euro is REALLY cold in the mid-levels.  It's so cold that N NC gets T-3" of wet snow out of wave #1!  Very interesting!  That's why the clown map shows what it shows!  The 850 mb 0C isotherm gets down south of I-40 at one point.  That might be something to watch.....

 

DC is in an interesting predicament.  The GGEM/NAM are crushjobs with 6-12" or so.  The Euro might give them 2".  Baltimore gets a dusting.  Presumable winners per this run are SW VA, particularly Roanoke, Blacksburg, etc.

 

EDIT: RPM Model...

 

RPM Snowfall.png

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I realize it's just a clown map (and not all/any snow in NC), but look at the relative snow minimum nosing up through the middle of Wake county.  Raleigh urban heat island?   ;)

 

Hmm... I don't know.  Maybe.  I'm not sure how detailed the high-resolution models get with that kind of stuff.

 

With regards to the Euro, you'd have to wonder about stickage, though it looks like the bulk of the snow falls in the wee hours of the morning pre-dawn (roughly midnight until dawn on Monday morning, basically), so the March fireball won't be scorching the flakes as (if?) they fall :lol:.  Road stickage is certainly unlikely given the setup depicted, IMO.

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Looks all ZR to me. Major ice storm. Hi Res surface has it mainly as IP for central NC.

Sent from my HTC One

 

Oh, yes, I'm not sure if there's a way for us to get a much snow out of this at this point.  The Weatherbell clown had 9" in parts of NC, haha (surely, it was not much snow, of course).  The 12z NAM/GFS was significantly drier, though...

 

The 12z GGEM is kind of interesting.  You'd have to think some of the NC border counties might see a few inches out of it.  EDIT: Well, surface temperatures suck, so perhaps not.

 

It's a little late for the EPS mean now, but nevertheless they basically doubled for N NC on the 00z run.  GSO's mean is now over 2" (was ~1.2" last night).  Every single member shows some wintry precip from what I can gather.  About half are light, some are moderate, and there's a few "major" events (though these are the outliers).  I still feel pretty good about some ZR/IP here at some point, though I doubt it will be anything more than a nuisance (if even that).  The 12z Euro run might be telling.

 

It looks like some of the EPS members want us to have some fun with the ULL, hence some of the higher totals.

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RAH has a very lengthy disco this afternoon, but it looks like they're emphasizing Monday night as the possible problem time frame.

 

 

 

THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT IS ALSO QPF DEPENDENT...AND WHILE THE NAM
IS DRIER...THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF ARE NOTICEABLY WETTER...WITH AS
MUCH AS A QUARTER-INCH OF QPF OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE WEST. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...GIVEN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALOFT THIS COULD BE THE
PERIOD WHERE PRECIPITATION TYPE PROBLEMS COULD BE MOST ACUTE...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE TRIANGLE WEST AND NORTH. THIS WOULD ALSO BE A
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TIME FOR CONCERN DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY...OR
NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA ARE FORECAST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING OR SO... AND THE BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
COLD...YIELDING A LIKELIHOOD OF NON-LIQUID PRECIPITATION AS SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPERATURES THERE CONTINUE TO BE BELOW 0C. WHILE AN
ADVISORY-TYPE SCENARIO OVERALL IS PREFERRED AT PRESENT AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEAR...IF THERE WAS ONE PERIOD IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
WHERE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A
CATEGORY...THIS COULD BE THE ONE. PRUDENT TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS
REGARDING THIS FIFTH PERIOD FORECAST FOR NOW.

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Nope snowpe. Looks like rain to me. Have no idea what the surface temps are, but a low in the coastal plain is not snow for RDU.

 

Need that low to go another 50-100 miles west so we here in the east get dry slotted, do not need rain or ice for that matter....luckily we stay above freezing but the river is running full, all the ditches are just now getting low again and the last thing I want to see is a bunch of rain.

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Anyone read anything today from Robert at WXSouth? I believe he is pretty good at forecasting for the SE .Yesterday he had several post on facebook,about the storm coming, but nothing today that I can find.

my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered

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my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered

 

It's still a high impact event for parts of NC too, not a huge area, but some will experience a decent ice storm.

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my guess is it doesn't look as icy as it did last night reason no tweets today! I don't think its much to worry about this part of the country maybe just a mixture of stuff no major winter storm here.... now Central and South West Virginia probably going to get clobbered

 

 

I would guess he took advantage of today's weather and got away from the computer for a while...I'm betting he will provide some thoughts with tonight's 0z data.

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I would guess he took advantage of today's weather and got away from the computer for a while...I'm betting he will provide some thoughts with tonight's 0z data.

Yea, I'm sure he'll be back before game time! lol. I was just saying if models was looking as good today as they were last night he would have been all over it today.

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Well I got a chance of a mix from Sunday night thru Tuesday morning. lol

 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN AND SLEET LIKELY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR
100 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN A
CHANCE OF SLEET AND SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S.
NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET IN THE EVENING...
THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...
THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID
30S. HIGHS AROUND 50.
 

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