Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Final call for me is 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I just looked at the WWA...It says Owosso to Sandusky line. Odd... it does indeed say OWES under the "SANILAC-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL" section, and says OWOSSO under the next section for Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM and GFS are clearly too far south with the sfc low. Both had a barely 996mb low on the OK/KS line at 21z while mesoanalysis shows the low safely in east central KS. edit: arguably SE KS but it's well north of the state line. Considering both models are showing such a tight gradient on the northern edge this could come into play for a lot of us. yup! GFS is little weaker compared to current obs. At hour 24 on the 12z euro, the low is on the IN/OH border just north of KY. That would mean with the current position of the low, that it would move almost due east, a little north. I think a track even a little north of the euro is very possible. I still can't wrap my ideas around that low down in the gulf. Keep thinking well maybe it steals some of our moisture, or maybe it helps feed moisture into our storm, or maybe it gets pulled into our storm. Or does the Kansas low get pulled more north by the cold front in N MI. Feels like a little battle going on with interaction. Hopefully it ends up well for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Odd... it does indeed say OWES under the "SANILAC-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL" section, and says OWOSSO under the next section for Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee counties. Seems to be amateur hour over at dtx today. I clicked on their PDF guide for this storm and they had slides from the February 1st storm instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Seems to be amateur hour over at dtx today. I clicked on their PDF guide for this storm and they had slides from the February 1st storm instead Alrighty then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Odd... it does indeed say OWES under the "SANILAC-GENESEE-LAPEER-LIVINGSTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SANDUSKY...FLINT...LAPEER...HOWELL" section, and says OWOSSO under the next section for Saginaw-Tuscola-Shiawassee counties. Probably just a typo. I think they meant Owosso for both of them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DTX issued a Wind Advisory for 40-50 MPH wind gusts in the Thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Probably just a typo. I think they meant Owosso for both of them anyway. I figured that too... But it's gotta go south! SOUTH!!! Owosso to Sandusky is right through my yard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 850-700mb Frontogenesis, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 DTX issued a Wind Advisory for 40-50 MPH wind gusts in the Thumb. Nice, winds will be ripping off Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Honestly, I still like my adjusted call of 6-10" for Detroit On Facebook I went with 6-9" so yeah we are in the same ballpark. I think someone could get a lollipop/Wyandotte jackpot to 10 or 11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 18z NAM and GFS are clearly too far south with the sfc low. Both had a barely 996mb low on the OK/KS line at 21z while mesoanalysis shows the low safely in east central KS. edit: arguably SE KS but it's well north of the state line. Considering both models are showing such a tight gradient on the northern edge this could come into play for a lot of us. RAP also having the same problem. Here's the sfc low position at 22z, right along the OK/KS border. I know its not much, but it's worth noting for those of us on the fringe. Also seems to be moving the SLP centre in a SE direction which hasn't been occurring over the last 6hr's via SPC meso analysis(been more ENE movement). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 yup! GFS is little weaker compared to current obs. At hour 24 on the 12z euro, the low is on the IN/OH border just north of KY. That would mean with the current position of the low, that it would move almost due east, a little north. I think a track even a little north of the euro is very possible. I still can't wrap my ideas around that low down in the gulf. Keep thinking well maybe it steals some of our moisture, or maybe it helps feed moisture into our storm, or maybe it gets pulled into our storm. Or does the Kansas low get pulled more north by the cold front in N MI. Feels like a little battle going on with interaction. Hopefully it ends up well for us... I agree with this thinking, a track similar to the Euro maybe a hair north might be correct. Of all the models the Euro is handling the track well at this junction even compared to the 18z model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 I figured that too... But it's gotta go south! SOUTH!!! Owosso to Sandusky is right through my yard! South? Come on, we only need 6 more inches to break the record. We might as well get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Going to have to correct my original post. I found a case from March 2008 where we had a high of 60 on the 3rd and about 5" of snow on the 4th. LAF airport doesn't have snow measurements for these years so I'm having to use other sources to verify. Have gone back to 1980 and found another case...March 9, 1992 had a high of 64 and March 10, 1992 had 3.6" of snow at the airport. So apparently there's only been 2 occurrences in 34 years of highs in the 60s and at least 3" of snow the following day here. We might be on the verge of doing something pretty unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 KBUF debated on Blizzard Warnings. Two blizzard warnings in a span of 2 months after not having one since 93 would be incredible. The only Blizzard Warnings I can remember were in 77, 85, 93 (Don't think conditions were met, not sure though), 2014. THE WORST CONDITIONSOF ALL WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NIAGARA-OSWEGO COUNTY CORRIDOR WHERETHE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER BY LAKE ONTARIO...AND COULD WELLREACH 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 45 MPH...WHICH IF REALIZEDWOULD RESULT IN NEAR-TO-OUTRIGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THIS STRIPOF COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE GREATER ROCHESTER AREA. GIVEN THISPOTENTIAL...WE TOYED WITH UPGRADING THESE COUNTIES TO A BLIZZARDWARNING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ELECTED TO HOLD OFF ON THIS FOR NOWGIVEN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WHICH IFIT WERE TO CONTINUE WOULD RESULT IN LOWER WIND SPEEDS AND ASIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THIS STATED...SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL...AS AN UPGRADE MAY STILL EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY DEPENDENT UPONFURTHER POSSIBLE SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACK...HOWEVER SLIGHT THESEMAY BE. STAY TUNED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 P&C up to 4-8 inches.... Hourly at 6.9 inches.... .8 PWATS nosing into Peoria area along with some CAPE I believe? feel free to correct me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 37 degrees here now, winds are NNE @ 4. Temps have been falling for awhile now. SREF plumes, if I am reading them right, mean is 11"? Whatever, just get the snow over with, and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 returns really taking off now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 Precip developing from C. MO on up into NW. MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 11, 2014 Author Share Posted March 11, 2014 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 latest RAP showing .60" in the weenie fgen band over chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 lol... ha I'll send ya some pics joe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 That gradient is amazing. .70" on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 lol... Most of you guys get a snowstorm, Geos gets nothing, everyone is a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 Pretty incredible how the precip just blew up in NWMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 11, 2014 Share Posted March 11, 2014 lol... consistently advertised gradient with minor wobbles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 12, 2014 Author Share Posted March 12, 2014 consistently advertised gradient with minor wobbles Yep. It's doing alright thus far, so we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Yep. It's doing alright thus far, so we'll see... Gimme like 15 miles NW. All I need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted March 12, 2014 Share Posted March 12, 2014 Gimme like 15 miles NW. All I need Give me a little more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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