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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Latest EURO/GGEM have a strong storm signal. GFS not so much. 

 

Hopefully we can get on last good storm this winter and the below normal temp pattern in March can finally deliver. 

 

GFS has a Miller B snowstorm 1 day later.

You're not going to get an exact scenario this far out. All models have a storm signal during the March 17th-19th period.

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your analogue or cips?

 

What are we working with here? Miller B? 

 

A piece of energy is rounding the top of the base of the PNA ridge and diving SE-ward...We also have a nice little 50/50 feature showing up which helps pin a fairly strong HP near us...How strong this energy diving up from Canada is and @ what angle it comes down at will determine what kind of storm we get, but obviously it is too far out to discuss details...

 

I'd say its a Miller A/B

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EURO has had this storm for 4 runs now, it is also showing up on almost every model. The wave lengths tell me something will occur during this time frame, a snowstorm? Who knows, but it is the last legit threat of the winter, who cares if there is a thread on it? 

 

Rather there be a thread then people posting about it in the 12-14th rain event. 

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EURO has had this storm for 4 runs now, it is also showing up on almost every model. The wave lengths tell me something will occur during this time frame, a snowstorm? Who knows, but it is the last legit threat of the winter, who cares if there is a thread on it? 

 

Rather there be a thread then people posting about it in the 12-14th rain event. 

true, but we're at the point in the season where we really would be grasping at straws for anything better than a widespread 6" snowfall

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The pattern is actually more conducive than this week's storm as well. We have a nice PNA ridge, and almost all the models have some sort of PV over SE Canada and a good HP showing up. There will be cold air to work with if this storm forms correctly...Who knows, lets just have fun tracking one more. This is a weather enthusiast web site, not the NWS. 

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true, but we're at the point in the season where we really would be grasping at straws for anything better than a widespread 6" snowfall

 

Thats my point, I think everyone realizes this...Pointing out a storm threat isn't saying "OMG MASSIVE SNOW COMING" ya know? The threat of some shortwave diving down from Canada at this range has been on all the models for close to 3 days now. Let's have fun with it. If it doesn't happen, so be it, we have 8 months of warmth ahead. 

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Thats my point, I think everyone realizes this...Pointing out a storm threat isn't saying "OMG MASSIVE SNOW COMING" ya know? The threat of some shortwave diving down from Canada at this range has been on all the models for close to 3 days now. Let's have fun with it. If it doesn't happen, so be it, we have 8 months of warmth ahead. 

MMMM warmth, I love winter but its made my desire for warm weather a lot more pronounced. we had a great winter historically and next winter who knows with the developing el nino. this storm IMO does have more legs but in mid march we'll need ALOT more to go in our direction than 4 weeks ago

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Upton seems really bullish in their AFD about this threat considering its a full 5 days out. I can't paste the discussion because its a pain from my phone, but basically in the last paragraph they talk about factoring in "snow cover" when forecasting temperatures for Monday.

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Upton seems really bullish in their AFD about this threat considering its a full 5 days out. I can't paste the discussion because its a pain from my phone, but basically in the last paragraph they talk about factoring in "snow cover" when forecasting temperatures for Monday.

Check out the hydrology section. They mention significant QPF mostly in the form of snow.
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