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3/17-3/18 Storm Threat Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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FINAL CALL :

12" or greater : 2% chance

10" or greater : 5% chance

8" or greater : 10% chance

6" or greater : 15% chance

4" or greater : 23% chance

2" or greater : 35% chance

Under 2" : 10% chance

Sent from my iPhone

So let's see...2" or greater = 35% chance and under 2" = 10% chance. So, I can only assume there is a 55% chance of the world ending before the storm.

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FINAL CALL :

12" or greater : 2% chance

10" or greater : 5% chance

8" or greater : 10% chance

6" or greater : 15% chance

4" or greater : 23% chance

2" or greater : 35% chance

Under 2" : 10% chance

Sent from my iPhone

 

0-12"+.

EXCELLENT forecast! 

 

Back to the topic, weren't we all just yesterday talking about how bad the 18z suites are? 

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My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north.

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My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north.

Any reasoning behind this, or just because?

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My gut right now for NYC is they will either be fringed completely, or some snow showers. Obviously, it can change, but unless you guys can get heavy rates, it won't accumulate much on pavement. I will be back for the 00z NAM, but I definitely see it shifting south even further, maybe not by much, but its going to go south, south, south until the storm hits. I doubt it corrects to the north.

I agree - the PV to the north is progged to be slightly weaker then the 3/2 event so there is a little wiggle room to be fringed with clouds and some snow showers here - I would suspect all talk of any accumulations in tomorrow mornings NWS forecast in the metro will be shelved ......

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Any reasoning behind this, or just because?

Most of the other models shifted south because of the better sampling that was done at the 12z model runs. The models handled the energy differently, and most likely the NAM will continue to correct as it gets into it's range. Even the ensembles of the EURO and GFS agree with the shift south.

 

For those who still think this will be a snowstorm, needs to rethink that.

 

EARLY EARLY Call:

NYC: coating-1inch on the grassy surfaces

PHL: 1-3 on grassy surfaces

DC: 3-5 Grassy Surfaces

More further south

I think this will continue to move further south with the runs. Don't listen to me, I am just talk right now, but something to keep an eye on.

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Most of the other models shifted south because of the better sampling that was done at the 12z model runs. The models handled the energy differently, and most likely the NAM will continue to correct as it gets into it's range. Even the ensembles of the EURO and GFS agree with the shift south.

 

For those who still think this will be a snowstorm, needs to rethink that.

 

EARLY EARLY Call:

NYC: coating-1inch on the grassy surfaces

PHL: 1-3 on grassy surfaces

DC: 3-5 Grassy Surfaces

More further south

I think this will continue to move further south with the runs. Don't listen to me, I am just talk right now, but something to keep an eye on.

I understand why you think the storm will be south, and I understand that the 12z models are well south of previous runs.  What I dont understand is why you think it is going to keep coming south, south, south.  

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The RGEM is not as good as the NAM for snow lover, let me draw it out for ya;

 

The RGEM has a more positively tilted trough....Also note the base of the trough is in S Texas on the NAM & in Mexico in the RGEM

 

nam500.gif
 

 

There is no way that is coming north there will go directly east.once it gets between the Mason Dixon Line and the PA Turnpike Book It

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And to think people were claiming this looked like the PD II storm, it did, big word DID, but to even talk about that post 4 days is just irresponsible.

People aren't forecasting weather here, it is a message board.  No one owes anyone any level of responsibility here.  With that being said, this storm has never really resembled PDII in my mind.

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The GEFS is just being skewed by two members that produce a decent coastal low with the 2nd piece on Tuesday night.  10 of the 12 don't do this.

Yeah folks, this one is looking dead. This is why we can't get to excited over models past 48 hours really. But who cares, its been great this winter, Bring on Warm temps, if that ever comes lol.

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