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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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This is why I friggin hate Miller B's, always a major screw job somewhere and need too many things to work out perfectly.  Miller B's are always a SNE and LI special and models sucked me in again this time. Give me a nice Miller A coming up from the Gulf or even a solid over running event any day of the week, may not get the epic totals but at least not staring at the radar hoping precip materializes.

 

Guess I should be happy with the 4" I got so far.  Funny my kids were off from school today and tomorrow and to think I thought them being out today was the stretch, roads actually were bad this afternoon so good call but tomorrow mrining maybe just fine.

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With the latest NAM run joining the east trend, I am just about done with this snow event. Ill enjoy the few inches. Lucky are those just to our east, another just miss here in the HV. Before moving here, I never realized the HV was such a place to be teased during winter storms. Euro is certainly no king. For those of you south and east of this stupid snowhole called Poughkeepsie, congrats and enjoy. I am looking forward to Spring. Sorry for the downer, but I just need to vent.

We'll get a foot of snow. Not to worry.

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This is why I friggin hate Miller B's, always a major screw job somewhere and need too many things to work out perfectly.  Miller B's are always a SNE and LI special and models sucked me in again this time. Give me a nice Miller A coming up from the Gulf or even a solid over running event any day of the week, may not get the epic totals but at least not staring at the radar hoping precip materializes.

 

Guess I should be happy with the 4" I got so far.  Funny my kids were off from school today and tomorrow and to think I thought them being out today was the stretch, roads actually were bad this afternoon so good call but tomorrow mrining maybe just fine.

Yeah the snowfall this morning made a mess of things. Perhaps schools and offices jumped the gun by shutting down tomorrow though. 

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You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent.

 

Eo2IOys.gif

 

Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet.

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You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent.

 

Eo2IOys.gif

 

Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet.

Grab a paddle...its a broken ship....
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You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent.

 

Eo2IOys.gif

 

Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet.

 

 

you have a shot due to your location. I need more of a push west!

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You know what? I'm going down with the ship. Radar looks good. Bands are marching westward over central CT and showing no signs of piviting. This is before we even start maximizing on mid-level frontogenetical forcing, and before the whole system stalls and retrogrades. Our surface low is only just beginning to bomb out, and will imminently start to pull the feel of the rapidly sharpening 500 mb trough. There's an enormous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. If I bust, so be it (I won't be alone), but when the Euro and current observations don't particularly contradict each other, I tend not to dissent.

Eo2IOys.gif

Our surface low isn't even sub-990 mb yet.

Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate.
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Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate.

I admit I fell victim to model watching tonight myself after holding strong for so many days especially after last nights 00z runs lol...H5 looks to close soon and this storm is just exploding, if that moisture makes it to us and the mid levels close we could be looking at the sharp cutoff( that the euro showed) in western Orange County while band sit overtop everyone from the Hudson river east, seeing the radar make a push has me feeling much better. Very stressful storm

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I admit I fell victim to model watching tonight myself after holding strong for so many days especially after last nights 00z runs lol...H5 looks to close soon and this storm is just exploding, if that moisture makes it to us and the mid levels close we could be looking at the sharp cutoff( that the euro showed) in western Orange County while band sit overtop everyone from the Hudson river east, seeing the radar make a push has me feeling much better. Very stressful storm

Well, I could wake up to three inches of snow but fretting over it ain't gonna change it. There will be other storms regardless of what happens with this one. After that crappy Feb 06 miss for me it took a while, including other misses in 09 and early 10 but then the last two weeks of Feb 10 happened and it was awesome around here and I appreciated it that much more.
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Just went for a (short) Jebwalk.  I was hoping we had passed 2" but ... no go.  The caveat though is the wind which makes it hard to tell for sure.  That wind was the reason for the short walk, it's truly stinging when you're faced into it.  It's not snowing hard at all but there are some sharp grains mixed in and when they blast you at 25+ it's unpleasant.  

 

That wind still has a bit of a NW component to it which surprised me but after reading you guys saying the storm hasn't finished developing yet kinda explains it.  As I sit here typing it is starting to snow harder but it's still a bit lighter than moderate.  I'd really like to see this come west a little, and indications are still that it will but, if it doesn't add up to the big totals I don't think I'll be too disappointed.  Heck, it wasn't much more than 48 hours ago that this storm still wasn't progged to be much of anything so I really didn't get too emotionally invested.  That said I would like to wake up in the morning and see a foot of new fluff  :popcorn:

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Be careful trying to be the voice of reason here...I'll be your first mate.

Then your job is to get a few cases of duct tape and try to keep the hull together for just a couple more hours... lol.

 

Gonna head to bed for a while and see where we stand in the wee hours. I really don't think things are as bad as many are making them out to be.

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Then your job is to get a few cases of duct tape and try to keep the hull together for just a couple more hours... lol.

Gonna head to bed for a while and see where we stand in the wee hours. I really don't think things are as bad as many are making them out to be.

I think that band is going to stall east of the Hudson, possibly out by you. Not sure that it makes it this far. It's painful to watch!

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I think that band is going to stall east of the Hudson, possibly out by you. Not sure that it makes it this far. It's painful to watch!

 

I'm starting to wonder if it even makes it to me and I'm another 20 or so miles east of Julian.  Quite a bit south but in this case I don't think that's a factor.  

 

The Thunder Ridge webcam is active and controllable and they have the lights on so you can see what's up.  Check it - http://thunderridgeski.com/mountain-cam.html  The cam is on at Mohawk too - http://www.mohawkmtn.com/webcam.html

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Albany trimmed back, not surprisingly

 

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

 

TRENDS SHOWING THE STORM TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE EAST...BASED ON
ALL THE NEW GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LOWERING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT IN EASTERN NY AND SOUTHERN VT...
BUT WAITING FOR ALL 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE DECISION ON WHETHER
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED BEYOND TONIGHT...AS STORM STALLING OFF CAPE COD
TOMORROW COULD STILL THROW SOME MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WESTWARD FOR
SOME VERY DRY SNOW...EVEN IF LIQUID EQUIVALENT COULD BE A BIT
LESS. SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW THE UPPER ENERGY STILL TRACKING EAST
AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA...WITH PRESSURE
FALLS EAST...RATHER THAN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DELAY
IN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACK...PERHAPS PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED FEED OF DRY AIR FROM THE STRONG UPPER
CONFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.

SO...HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...BUT AGAIN AMOUNTS REDUCED
A LITTLE BECAUSE OF LESS SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE BAND HEADING
WESTWARD NOW THROUGH CT AND CENTRAL MA SHOULD AFFECT NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES LATER TONIGHT...SO LITTLE TO NO REDUCTION IN SNOWFALL
THERE. STILL...ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING AND
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
STORM EVOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE REVEALED.

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