St. Paddy's Day east coast snow storm 2014-or maybe the St Paddys' hangover storm?

[Jack66]

Take a look at the CMC model at 00z Tuesday. At 156 it's a big one!

[CoastalWx]

GFS op is downright frigid, but dry. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Is this one a goner?

[Typhoon Tip]

Some of the GFS ensembles members are amazing

 

They are ...and they range.   I was just noting, myself, that really ...the 16th through the 20th or even the Equinox, take your pick of which member.  

 

The signal is still there, that's about all that can be gleaned for the time being. 

[Damage In Tolland]

They are ...and they range.   I was just noting, myself, that really ...the 16th through the 20th or even the Equinox, take your pick of which member.  

 

The signal is still there, that's about all that can be gleaned for the time being. 

Seems like most of the mets on the board are saying it's OTS based on the progressive pattern and -PNA

[CoastalWx]

Seems like most of the mets on the board are saying it's OTS based on the progressive pattern and -PNA

 

No there is a ridge out west.

[Heisy]

GGEM looks like it has a 989low at benchmark. 

[Heisy]

Waiting for precip/color maps, this looks damn good!

 

[Damage In Tolland]

No there is a ridge out west.

I guess I should have said a collapsing PNA

[CoastalWx]

When doesn't the GGEM tease weenies? In the summer it's hurricanes.

[Damage In Tolland]

When doesn't the GGEM tease weenies? In the summer it's hurricanes.

It nailed the storm this week. Was the first one to bring it so far north and rain to NH. it's had a good winter..very good

[Typhoon Tip]

Seems like most of the mets on the board are saying it's OTS based on the progressive pattern and -PNA

 

There is an emerging -PNA out in time, but the mistake there is taking "snap shot" assumption of what it will mean on to the N/A flow construct.

 

The PNA is a giant domain space.  It will start modulating back toward a negative mode from west to east, and will take time to do so. The western 1/2 of the domain could wend its way into a negative phase state that is in greater magnitude to the vestigial ...yet on-going +PNA in the eastern sector, and that would cause the entire measure to be negative.  But ...it would not impose on N/A until that western shift finally comes east.  

One should not really use teleconnectors as snap shots.  One must understand, they are differentiating, but doing so at a slower rate than the synoptic evolution.  

 

Simply put, time lags ... what really makes it fuzzy is that said lags can also vary.  

 

Every day leading up to the 20th of the month is in a +PNA state that is only weakening in time, due to lags in the wave spacing as the mode of the PNA changes from west to east across Pac and into N/A.  There is room in time and space for troughs to take on more meridian flows and effect storminess. 

[Typhoon Tip]

 

or you could just say what Scott just said:  "No there is a ridge out west."

[CoastalWx]

It nailed the storm this week. Was the first one to bring it so far north and rain to NH. it's had a good winter..very good

 

Not really. 

[Heisy]

It nailed the storm this week. Was the first one to bring it so far north and rain to NH. it's had a good winter..very good

 

+10000, its been one of the best honestly. 

[CoastalWx]

 

or you could just say what Scott just said:  "No there is a ridge out west."

 

It's obviously a large domain, but I don't know if he knew what he was looking at.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not really. 

Go back and look. It absolutely has. Skill scores have been good for it this winter. 

 

So that tells us it's a good model in a progressive pattern with AK ridging

[CoastalWx]

+10000, its been one of the best honestly. 

 

In what way? All I know is 12 hrs out it had the 2/13 storm going over the BM. That model is not good. At some point in every winter, every model has a storm they performed well in.

[Ginx snewx]

It nailed the storm this week. Was the first one to bring it so far north and rain to NH. it's had a good winter..very good

been stellar the last two long lead

[CoastalWx]

Go back and look. It absolutely has. Skill scores have been good for it this winter. 

 

So that tells us it's a good model in a progressive pattern with AK ridging

 

That's great it's done ok in day 5, but it's prone to wild swings.  I'm not a fan of it.

[Damage In Tolland]

That's great it's done ok in day 5, but it's prone to wild swings.  I'm not a fan of it.

Oh yeah it's def prone to wild swings..but after this winter..we know it's a good model in a progressive pattern, That doesn't mean it'll be right with the St patty storm..since every other piece of guidance is OTS

[CoastalWx]

It hasn't done well since March 1st and euro is still leading the way at day 5.

[weathafella]

GGEM blows. Wtf are you guys smoking?

[CoastalWx]

GGEM blows. Wtf are you guys smoking?

 

I don't know. It didn't nail last week...it had a virtually fropa for the east coast, while DC got a snowstorm.

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM blows. Wtf are you guys smoking?

Not this winter it hasn't. Check the skill score chart

[CoastalWx]

Well getting back on track...the problem is the nrn stream and PV want to push SE again, and we are at the mercy of the s/w diving off the ridge out west. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Well ... whatever it will be, it may be one of, if not the, last chance of the year. ...

 

Yeah yeah yeah...it can snow into May, but what are you really looking for or expecting from that rareness ?  Not much if you are sane. 

 

For all practical means, intents and purposes, its a pretty steep slope out of the season once we hit the Equinox. 

 

One thing I am seeing is that a fairly potent -EPO ridge may evolve one last time in those last 10 days of the month. So perhaps that will play a role in modulating temperatures out there in la-la time frames. In DJF ...sure.... don't know about heading into April, though, when wave spacing is already shrinking -- teleconnectors start correlating differently going forward. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We will see what happens, but if this doesn't pan out it may be curtains down here on anything appreciable for the season

[CoastalWx]

GEFS say Canadian on crack.

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, NCEP agrees 

 

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A BRIEF PAUSE IN THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO... EXPECT A RETURN TO MID-WINTER TEMPERATURES NEAR MICHIGAN. PAC NW WILL SEE SOME PRECIP...MAINLY IN WA... AS THE FIRST SYSTEM PASSES BY. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED SHOULD THE SECOND SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH AS PROJECTED. IN THE EAST... WHERE A SUSTAINED WARMUP ELUDES US... TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW CLIMO WITH A COLDER SHOT OF AIR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK... THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE POSSIBLE COASTAL SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD MODEST TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMPLE GULF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD. TRANSITION TO SNOW IS LIKELY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD BUT THAT IS DEPENDENT ON DETAILS WHICH ARE FAR FROM KNOWN. FROPA SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA BY TUE/D7 EAST OF THE SFC HIGH.