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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Who cares what it shows at 156 hours.

Its like 6-10 inches of snow for you and then a paint peeler...you never go above freezing at the sfc. N of the pike its probably 10"+...maybe some sleet tickling up to NH border...who knows. 850 line gets to ORH.

But none of this actually matters right now. What matters i that we continue to see good support for a larger scale system around this time. The play by play details should really be reserved for inside of 100 hours IMHO.

he's scared very scared
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Another W NY-PF jack.

 

Just using the 850mb thermal layout, the synoptic appeal of a polar high situated perfectly N, and full latitude trough pounding a 980mb low across SE LI...

 

You get buried alive up there.

 

'Course, that's this run...

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SlantStickers Anonymous

SlantStickers Anonymous

Posted
Posted

It just sucks that folks with early access have to post all these cryptic things and read between the lives. Wish folks would give what it shows

Great run for inland areas and sne. Not a good run for the coast. Still plenty of runs to go.

Given his location it sounds as though coastal New York has ptype issues, but this post suggests a great deal of New England does well.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Who cares what it shows at 156 hours.

Its like 6-10 inches of snow for you and then a paint peeler...you never go above freezing at the sfc. N of the pike its probably 10"+...maybe some sleet tickling up to NH border...who knows. 850 line gets to ORH.

But none of this actually matters right now. What matters i that we continue to see good support for a larger scale system around this time. The play by play details should really be reserved for inside of 100 hours IMHO.

To answer your question .. I think every single person here. If they don't then I question their snow devotion
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

To answer your question .. I think every single person here. If they don't then I question their snow devotion

 

Its one thing to care if it shows a storm at 156...its another to get obsessed with exactly who is flipping to sleet after how much qpf. Those details are irrelevant.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

The EURO ends up phasing the shortwave with the energy left behind from the Day 3 system think it is the only model to do this. 

 

Yeah I believe this may be correct. The GFS is weaker but more favorable for SNE on its current run with my area smoking cirrus or seeing flurries at best. The key is it is still there and confidence is rising that there will be a storm that period. As I said above this year's pattern favors SNE over us. We will see if that thinking wins out yet again.

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MainePhotog

MainePhotog

Posted
Posted

Who cares what it shows at 156 hours.

 

 

Its like 6-10 inches of snow for you and then a paint peeler...you never go above freezing at the sfc. N of the pike its probably 10"+...maybe some sleet tickling up to NH border...who knows. 850 line gets to ORH.

 

 

But none of this actually matters right now. What matters i that we continue to see good support for a larger scale system around this time. The play by play details should really be reserved for inside of 100 hours IMHO.

 

Great point Will.

 

But none of this actually matters right now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

It is hard not to get impatient and wanting to track model details on this system....but Tip is right in saying that we actually just have to kind of sit here and "wait" until this becomes close enough to have each model run matter...because right now they don't.

 

 

There is an interesting range of solutions on this...the Euro seems to be in the camp of developing a significant low in the OH valley around the same time the arctic high is pressing southeast. This would favor NY State and New England for snows. The other side of the coin is having a weaker system develop and get going more near the Carolinas or Delmarva...this would be wintry a bit further south....however, at this time, it looks like the former solution is a bit more favored as the GFS trended a bit more toward this (but not all the way) and the UKMET def has this solution. This can obviously still change quite a bit.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Great point Will.

 

But none of this actually matters right now.

nope but the discussion is fun, unless somebody bumps your posts three days later and talks about how you predicted a big storm. on the record I like  the look, will wait until Monday at noon to decide big or meh. disclaimer any further discussions until Monday are specific to model runs and interpretations, model interpretation of 12ZEuro SW CT 8-12, SE CT SE MA 3-5, CNE 8-12, NNE 10-14, helluva storm though

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

It is hard not to get impatient and wanting to track model details on this system....but Tip is right in saying that we actually just have to kind of sit here and "wait" until this becomes close enough to have each model run matter...because right now they don't.

 

 

There is an interesting range of solutions on this...the Euro seems to be in the camp of developing a significant low in the OH valley around the same time the arctic high is pressing southeast. This would favor NY State and New England for snows. The other side of the coin is having a weaker system develop and get going more near the Carolinas or Delmarva...this would be wintry a bit further south....however, at this time, it looks like the former solution is a bit more favored as the GFS trended a bit more toward this (but not all the way) and the UKMET def has this solution. This can obviously still change quite a bit.

Better take on this by Saturday night as we push the clocks forward?  One thing is for sure regardless of R/IP/SN/amounts --- going to be some late nights tracking the 00z suites past midnight next week!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Its one thing to care if it shows a storm at 156...its another to get obsessed with exactly who is flipping to sleet after how much qpf. Those details are irrelevant.

Completely.

Need we remind people that last week's storm at this time frame jackpotted BTV-Montreal, and 5-7 days later at verification it snowed on Virginia Beach.

The deterministic outcome at this point is useless.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

God that's a beautiful run. Wish I could shovel all our day 5-8 jackpots this season, lol.

 

 

Hahah yeah I would love this one to verify but I would caution that at this stage it is wise to bet the streak and say it will be another SNE jackpot in the end.

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MainePhotog

MainePhotog

Posted
Posted

nope but the discussion is fun, unless somebody bumps your posts three days later and talks about how you predicted a big storm. on the record I like  the look, will wait until Monday at noon to decide big or meh. disclaimer any further discussions until Monday are specific to model runs and interpretations, model interpretation of 12ZEuro SW CT 8-12, SE CT SE MA 3-5, CNE 8-12, NNE 10-14, helluva storm though

 

I agree, I like the look too. And I love the discussion when I can get a few minutes to look it over. I just don't get excited about a storm until I see on radar the wall of snow in the Gulf of Maine moving inland. Not to say that the model runs don't have my attention, they certainly do. Taken with a grain of salt, of course. ;)

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Hahah yeah I would love this one to verify but I would caution that at this stage it is wise to bet the streak and say it will be another SNE jackpot in the end.

This one is different...if it phases up like that it could be deep interior. Way too early to even entertain jackpots and stuff.

I've been feeling a bookend winter up here so we'll see what happens. It's just awesome to have something to watch, been a little boring the last ten days.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

nope but the discussion is fun,                                                                  you predicted a big storm.                          I like  the look, will wait until Monday at noon to decide big-er                                                                                       CT 8-12, SE CT SE MA 3-5, CNE 8-12, NNE 10-14, helluva storm though

So, can I quote you on that   ;)      Anyway, how does yesterday's Euro at 12z compare to today's?

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

This one is different...if it phases up like that it could be deep interior. Way too early to even entertain jackpots and stuff.

I've been feeling a bookend winter up here so we'll see what happens. It's just awesome to have something to watch, been a little boring the last ten days.

 

Yeah I know it is bad when we are talking temps in the NNE thread.

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

Eh not really. Well within the wobble range of being 6-7 days out. I would not worry.

Definitely not worried at this range, I was just surprised given the location of the low on the op run.

 

I would love for this to track between ACK and MVY...

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Nobody bit on the cutter post. Well done.

Euro ensembles are SE of the BM, but not by much.

 

There's a huge slug of precip in what looks like a commahead over NY and into CNE and NNE (in addition to SNE as well)...that look has me thinking there's a lot of solutions which bring the mid-level lows quite a bit closer than the sfc track.

 

Might not be totally unreasonable in a setup like this where an arctic high presses down...making the system more tilted than usual for a big coastal.

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