Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

[TalcottWx]

GEM @ 12z was a nice blow back huh.

[dendrite]

Usual SREFs caveats apply, but 21z is a toaster...looks like the euro. The mean had been pretty cold though.

[dryslot]

Its really bothersome that you have weather tools that you can't use

[ma blizzard]

I'm hoping to get 2". I know most would take the under here. But what the hell? It's March, might as well hope we overperform. Pretty soon it will be 50F fog and mist.

i think our area has a 50/50 shot at getting an inch or two .. could be interesting with the low lvl cold push by 3z to 6z for at least something of frozen variety

[CT Rain]

Was looking at some of the BUFKIT soundings around MPM land... and that's a decent freezing rain signal. I could see somewhere along or north of Rt 2... especially >1kft getting a somewhat nasty glaze. 

[moneypitmike]

It's probably pretty much a nowcast.

 

The nowcasts for sne will have such insights as:

 

"it's now raining". 

"it's now pouring",

"it's torrential now"

"it's now flooding"

 

 

Hopefully, earlier than expected the nowcasts will mention mixing and change-overs.

[moneypitmike]

Was looking at some of the BUFKIT soundings around MPM land... and that's a decent freezing rain signal. I could see somewhere along or north of Rt 2... especially >1kft getting a somewhat nasty glaze. 

 

Thanks for the heads up on that Ryan.  What timeframe are you talking about there?

[powderfreak]

meh, if this storm wasn't in a progressive pattern and we had some blocking the synoptic juicyness would park a 970 over FVE and  stowe would get 15 synoptic  and upslope would give more than that for a 3 footer........as of now it's very good....prob 2 feet for them ....but not epic enuf to get me to drive on a wed nite after work that's all. If i had work off wed i would be driving up tonite.

 

Not trying to down play it at all....but i mean N greens can do 3 feet in 5 days EZ....they do every year (i've been following weather) but this year so far.  It's just not long enough duration to be epic ...it will dump and it will hopefully be biggest storm of year.

 

With that said i would like to know what scotter has for flags with such a TILTED System (mid levels low's well NW of surface) ...i was wondering what if any flags there would be in such a scenario ....(dry air at certain levels?)

 

lol and I thought we had high standards up here

 

j/k picks... You are thinking of like a St Patty's Day 2007 type storm.  That was a VT-special track up the east coast and ending at the FVE benchmark for upslope snow here.

 

That system in March 2007 was 12" of synoptic snow and about 18-24" of fluff after that.  The skiing was like drowning in snow, haha.

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Was looking at some of the BUFKIT soundings around MPM land... and that's a decent freezing rain signal. I could see somewhere along or north of Rt 2... especially >1kft getting a somewhat nasty glaze. 

 

Euro has a ZR signal too. I don't know if I buy widespread ZR but perhaps a narrow area? The way the cold pushes south...it almost hints at that. Even the RPM has it.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro has a ZR signal too. I don't know if I buy widespread ZR but perhaps a narrow area? The way the cold pushes south...it almost hints at that. Even the RPM has it.

 

 

Its gets so cold at like 900-950mb that it would go to sleet quickly I think...but perhaps a really narrow zone could ice long enough to cause problems with tree limbs and wires.

[CT Rain]

Thanks for the heads up on that Ryan.  What timeframe are you talking about there?

 

Looks like you're only like 34 or 35 during the rain and then dropping quickly by 00z. Probably to sleet at some point too. 

[radarman]

lol and I thought we had high standards up here

 

j/k picks... You are thinking of like a St Patty's Day 2007 type storm.  That was a VT track up the east coast and ending at the FVE benchmark for upslope snow here.

 

That system in March 2007 was 12" of synoptic snow and about 18-24" of fluff after that.  The skiing was like drowning in snow, haha.

 

Do you recall if Stowe was on wind hold all day after that storm?  I have hazy recollections of wind holds in most of N. VT but I could be confusing it with another storm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks like you're only like 34 or 35 during the rain and then dropping quickly by 00z. Probably to sleet at some point too.

Any idea about further east? I am not expecting much ZR. Rain to some sleet then a bit of snow

[CT Rain]

Its gets so cold at like 900-950mb that it would go to sleet quickly I think...but perhaps a really narrow zone could ice long enough to cause problems with tree limbs and wires.

 

925mb temps stay subfreezing for most of the event in far NW Mass.... even though it's torched at 850. It would be a real narrow sliver but it seems to bring some chill south from S VT before the flood gates of cold open up. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks like you're only like 34 or 35 during the rain and then dropping quickly by 00z. Probably to sleet at some point too. 

 

Sounds lovely--thanks.

[powderfreak]

Do you recall if Stowe was on wind hold all day after that storm? I have hazy recollections of wind holds in most of N. VT but I could be confusing it with another storm.

Valentines Day 2007 was widespread hold the day after, but I remember riding the Gondola at Stowe after St Patties Day. Aside from that I don't remember much except epic runs in the sidecountry down to RT 108.

[CT Rain]

Any idea about further east? I am not expecting much ZR. Rain to some sleet then a bit of snow

 

Looks like mainly Rt 2 corridor west of Greenfield up in the higher elevations. I saw Albany has a WS Watch out for ZR for northern Berkshire. 

[CT Rain]

I'm thinking we may avoid a flash freeze down here because the actual precip/rain tomorrow will underperform? Seems like we could struggle to get a lot of rain during the day with the mid level fronts so far north. Also, 2m temps/dew points not all that impressive for big melting in the areas that still have a lot of snow here in the state.  Different story with rain for the Pike region methinks. 

[dendrite]

I wonder how many inches of sleet the NAM gives me.

[dryslot]

I wonder how many inches of sleet the NAM gives me.

 

Several, I will let you know when i measure mine we can compare notes

[powderfreak]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43183-march-12-13-winter-storm-observations-thread/#entry2872513

Obs thread for when it gets going.

[CT Rain]

NAM doesn't bring in rain here until after dark. 

 

Someone want to create a new thread? This one is really long lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sounds lovely--thanks.

I'll be driving Rt 2 back from Cambridge 6:30-8:30 so I'll be watching car thermometer closely.

I think we get some plowable snow overnight Wednesday, you a bit more than me.

[dendrite]

Several, I will let you know when i measure mine we can compare notes

Soundings show I primarily ping from 21-30hr. I get about 0.75"+ liquid during that time. 3:1 would be about 2-3".

[Brian5671]

I'm thinking we may avoid a flash freeze down here because the actual precip/rain tomorrow will underperform? Seems like we could struggle to get a lot of rain during the day with the mid level fronts so far north. Also, 2m temps/dew points not all that impressive for big melting in the areas that still have a lot of snow here in the state.  Different story with rain for the Pike region methinks. 

I think you are right at least for S CT-I could see a scenario where we get .20 or less.  Very sharp cutoff

and wow, no precip till after 7pm?

[dryslot]

Soundings show I primarily ping from 21-30hr. I get about 0.75"+ liquid during that time. 3:1 would be about 2-3".

 

And probably 4-5" or so of snow on the other .50" or so as it looks like its around 1.25" over by you