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Giant signal for mid month. This was noted in the teleconnectors earlier this week

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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As of right now, Euro Op, Euro ENS, GFS OP, GEFS, CCM ENS all pretty much in agreement of a snowstorm centered at the BM. Disclaimer: does not mean I am forecasting a snowstorm just discussing the models, that is all

 

Lets see if we can get it a little more NW so everyone can get involved in the big snows, but that may be difficult with the PV nearby.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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The key is phasing the energy out west, If that happens it will be game on for precip up here

 

Yeah, need that phase and phase early.

 

Personally I'm not sure I like the overall trajectory of the low track, as I like to see a more negative tilt rather than more ENE.  Of course this is all just pure speculation, but that exiting ENE is usually better for you in Maine than it is for us if the low is going to track south of the SNE mainland.  Up here we like lows that move more north than east if they are off the NJ coast.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
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Yeah that would just cap off the season nicely up here with a toaster bath, lol. 

 

Pretty much. Nothing like capping things off with a dusting if that were to verify LOL. Not the run those of us up here want to see. Either way it looks like we are coming closer to seeing another CNE/SNE jackpot.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Pretty much. Nothing like capping things off with a dusting if that were to verify LOL. Not the run those of us up here want to see. Either way it looks like we are coming closer to seeing another CNE/SNE jackpot.

 

I'm not anywhere close to throwing in any towels, lol.  I'd give it several more days dude.  At least let it get into 72 hours.  This could become a rainer in 24 hours, who knows?

 

I'm more musing the pros and cons vs. how the deterministic solutions line up to our climo favored tracks.

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Hildy

Hildy

Posted
Posted

So I just sent that map to my sister who has never been on this site in her life--her response was, "That looks like a giant hot dog."

Thought y'all might enjoy.

Cautiously optimistic for significant snow next week--we seem to have been in the 'not screw zone but certainly not jackpot' zone all winter.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
I thought there was a difference between the operational model and some of these "control" runs...[/quote

I think you're correct. The op model is different vs the ensemble control. Someone who knows

definitively can clarify hopefully.

Without looking it up, the ensemble control is akin to a lower resution of the op run. I don't recall if the parameters or physics are changed.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Couple of aspects need to be ironed out if the region is to be greater impacted...

 

1)  there's been some inconsistency in handling the longitude of the western ridging that set to erupt three days from now. This is causing a goodly amount of mid level wave dynamics to shear west and get stranded, and that effectively robs the total that could be coherently situated when the eastern L/W amplifies.  

 

2)  the handling out in the Pacific is also detrimental in the current modeling; the ejection out of the west Pacific is being hurried along now, and it is forcing jet(s) to crash into the western ridge as it is trying to bulge -- that has a negative, transitive impact on the amount of digging that takes place, east of the Rockies.  

 

Neither of these physical processes necessarily correct; it's just that both are skewing this, and there is a kind of battle between the background really signaling this, and model nuance tending to fight.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
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ame="weathafella" post="2863766" timestamp="1394234763"]

Without looking it up, the ensemble control is akin to a lower resution of the op run. I don't recall if the parameters or physics are changed.

 

Wes answered this question in the ma forum earlier this year. The control run is the only ensemble with identical initial conditions as the op run but at the standard lower resolution as the other members. The usefulness is when the op and control show large differences in the medium range. It's a clue that the higher res may be overdoing something. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

PF when posting snap in time GEFS remember to check previous and later hours

The ECMWF weather prediction model is run 51 times from slightly different initial conditions. One forecast, called the EPS control forecast, is run from the operational ECMWF analysis. 50 additional integrations, the perturbed members, are made from slightly different initial conditions which are designed to represent the uncertainties inherent in the operational analysis. The initial perturbations are generated using the singular vector technique.

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